Truth is, it’s anybody’s guess as to who wins this year’s men’s NCAA Tournament. There really isn’t an overwhelming favorite.
At the top of the oddsboard are more than a few familiar faces. Duke is favored to win it all at nearly every major sportsbook, and in the mix is Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Houston and UConn.
With that, let’s take a look at how the NCAA Tournament championship odds have shifted over the course of the season at BetMGM Sportsbook, as well as what to know about each team’s odds movement this season.
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In The Beginning
At the start of the season, Houston (+900) was atop the oddsboard, followed by Duke (+1000), Purdue (+1400) and UConn (+1400). Auburn was at +1800, and defending champion Florida was tied with a host of teams at +2000, including Kansas, Kentucky, Arkansas and BYU.
Opening NCAA title odds: +1000
Current NCAA title odds: +300
What to know: Duke opened the season second on the board and enters the Tournament atop it. Despite missing two key players in the ACC tournament, the Blue Devils still prevailed and won the title. Duke also has arguably the biggest win of the season, a neutral-court victory over Michigan. Duke lost twice this season by a combined five points. After making the Final Four with another fabulous freshman last season (Cooper Flagg), can Duke do the same with Cameron Boozer this season? And take it even further? It last won it at the end of the 2014-15 season. The Blue Devils are bringing in 10% of tickets and 10% of the handle at BetMGM.
Opening NCAA title odds: +2500
Current NCAA title odds: +350
What to know: Michigan spent a large portion of the season atop the title oddsboard, but now sits second, just a notch behind the Blue Devils. The Wolverines were atop the board at +700 back on Dec. 1 and remained the favorite until Feb. 2, when Arizona took over. Michigan last made the title game at the end of the 2017-18 season, falling to Villanova. The Wolverines’ three losses this season have come by a combined 16 points. They have the highest ticket percentage (12%) and highest handle percentage (14.8%) at BetMGM.
Opening NCAA title odds: +4000
Current NCAA title odds: +400
What to know: The Wildcats made the largest leap up the board from the beginning of the season to now. As mentioned, they became title favorites the week of Feb. 2, remained the favorites for two weeks, and have been near the top of the oddsboard ever since. Arizona began the season 23-0, suffered two Big 12 losses by a combined seven points, and then ended the season with nine straight wins. It is responsible 8% of the tickets and 11.9% of the handle at BetMGM. The Wildcats last won the title at the end of the 1996-97 season.
Opening NCAA title odds: +2000
Current NCAA title odds: +650
What to know: The defending champions had an interesting odds journey this season. They began the season at +2000 but got out to +3000 in early January. Then, from that point forward, the Gators’ odds shortened every single week leading up to now, entering the Tournament with the fourth-shortest odds to win it all. UConn is the last school that went back-to-back, winning it in 2023 and 2024. Prior to that, Florida did it in 2006 and 2007.
Opening NCAA title odds: +900
Current NCAA title odds: +900
What to know: The Cougars are right back where they started. And that could be a good omen for Houston, if this year’s Tournament follows the same trend. Houston made it to the national title game last season, falling to the Gators by two. Brutal. The last team that lost in the championship game and then won the championship the next season was North Carolina, who pulled off the feat in 2017 after losing in 2016. Houston has never won a national title.
Opening NCAA title odds: +1400
Current NCAA title odds: +2200
What to know: The Huskies, as mentioned, are the last team to go back-to-back, and it was Florida that put an end to the three-peat last season, before it went on to win it all. This season, UConn lost to Arizona by four and beat Florida by four. However, its regular season ended on a sour note, losing to St. John’s by 20 in the Big East Championship Game.
