As I wrote this on the eve of Round 1 of March Madness, I realized there are not many game lines worth taking. The best numbers have left us.
However, I do have a few I will make a case for.
What makes this Tournament fun from a gambling perspective is the different options for wagers.
Let’s start with a few game lines.
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UCLA did not play well in conference play when leaving the West Coast time zone. Now, it is now playing Central Florida in the Eastern Time Zone. I don’t think this applies to March Madness games, and it didn’t apply to conference tournament games in Chicago last week. UCLA beat Michigan State and played Purdue close down its two best players.
Those two best players are their top scorers and one of the best point guards in the country. Tyler Bilobeau got hurt against Michigan State and Donovan Dent was injured against Purdue. Both are expected to play this weekend, which makes UCLA a very complete team.
UCLA is better everywhere against Central Florida. There isn’t one metric or number that would lean you toward UCF unless you believe UCLA isn’t healthy or its recent run of play isn’t sustainable. UCLA did beat Nebraska by 20 points just a few weeks ago. It also took down Illinois before that and, while these games were at home, it’s just proof this UCLA team is capable of these results.
UCF struggles stopping teams from scoring 2s and their effective field goal percentage is 235th in the country. With UCLA’s stars in the lineup, it should be able to score whenever it wants.
PICK: UCLA (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points
No. 14 Penn vs. No. 3 Illinois
Simply speaking, this should be a bloodbath on paper.
Illinois is first in the country in offensive efficiency and 28th on defense. Penn is 215th and 112th, respectively, in those categories. Penn only shoots 44% from the field and only 68.5% from the foul line.
Penn is in this game because it upset Yale in the Ivy League Championship Game as nearly a double-digit underdog. Penn trailed the entire game and was down four with 12 seconds left. TJ Power hit a 3 to make it a 1-point game. Yale made two foul shots and Power hit another 3 to tie things. Power ended the game with 44 points, which is nearly 30 points higher than his season average.
He’s not doing that against Illinois. I’m going to lay the big number.
PICK: Illinois (-24.5) to win by more than 24.5 points
Now, let’s move to some props and other wagers.
No. 3 Illinois/No. 5 Texas Tech Sweet 16 parlay
Illinois is going to beat Penn and then will be a heavy favorite against either North Carolina or VCU. I feel strongly it is into the Sweet 16.
Texas Tech lost JT Toppin with six games left in the season and the results sputtered a bit. It split with Iowa State and lost at BYU, and ended up 3-3 during those six games. But just like everything in the Tournament, the matchups matter here.
Texas Tech plays an Akron team it should beat. Then it would get an Alabama squad without Aden Holloway that still can’t play defense. I like Texas Tech in that game if Bama survives against Hofstra.
PICK: Illinois and Texas Tech (+200) to both make the Sweet 16
Total teams seeded 13-16 to make Round of 32
There just won’t be more than a single upset of the top four seeds, and I’m willing to wager 250 to make 100 on it.
Give me the two losses, please?
The smallest number for a favorite in the top four seeds is Alabama at -11.5 and that came down after the Holloway news. Nebraska is a 12.5-point favorite against Troy and the rest are well over 15 points. I think it’s possible all the top four seeds win their games, and we see zero upsets.
In fact, I’m wagering on it.
PICK: Total 13-16 seeds to make Round of 32 Under 1.5 (-250)
Now, two women’s basketball wagers to close things out:
Here’s the deal on this one: UConn beat 15th-ranked Tennessee by 30 this season. It beat a ranked Iowa team by nearly 30. In the Big East Tournament, it won games by 45, 49 and 39.
UTSA is 18-15 and it only has a winning record because it ran through the conference tournament as the 6-seed in Conference USA. It is going to lose this game 105-40.
UConn’s backups are better than UTSA’s starting five. UTSA shoots under 30% from 3, so even a miracle strong shooting game is unlikely.
PICK: UConn (-54.5) to win by more than 54.5 points
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 15 Holy Cross
The same idea applies here with Michigan, a top-10 team playing Holy Cross, which finished third in the Patriot League.
Holy Cross averages only 61 points to Michigan’s nearly 84 points. It doesn’t make a ton of shots and can’t shoot the 3 very well. Michigan is also coming off its worst game of the season, in which it scored only 42 points against Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament.
UM will come out smoking in this contest.
PICK: Michigan (-41.5) to win by more than 41.5 points
