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I think the Indiana freight train will roll over and through Miami on the way to the most unprecedented college football championship in the history of the sport.
However, as I write this column, Indiana is an 8.5-point favorite and that is the worst of the number. I’m going to wait until we get Miami steam closer to kickoff time and grab Indiana at 7.5 or even a juiced 7.
The last three Indiana games, against Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon, saw steam on their opponents that moved the number, and I believe sharp action will give me a better number.
For the big hitters, their power ratings will have this number lower, and they will wager on Miami. In the meantime, here are some props I like as I wait for Indiana -7 or -7.5.
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No. 10 Miami vs. No. 1 Indiana
Malachi Toney Over/Under 5.5 receptions
I texted a former Indiana player who covers the team and asked him what his biggest worry was in this game for his Hoosiers.
His reply was expected: “Miami’s team speed.”
This is the biggest advantage for Miami. The Hurricanes’ team speed is greater than Indiana’s, and Toney, in particular, has that game-changing quickness, burst and speed. I love that Miami’s offense is built via the offensive line and running game, but it’s a tad too pickleball for me in this postseason.
It takes the Canes too many plays to score, and they’ve had a reduced amount of explosive plays. Five was the most in any of the three games.
The Hoosier defense limits explosive plays and Miami knows this. That is why Toney is the lynchpin of a successful Miami passing attack. He had five receptions each in the last two games, so this is a fair number.
The Hurricanes like to get the ball quickly to him via the screen game, and they also like sending him downfield for shots. I do believe Toney needs a big game for the Canes to win.
PICK: Malachi Toney Over 5.5 receptions
Riley Nowakowski Over/Under 17.5 receiving yards
The Indiana tight end will be an important factor in this game.
Miami’s secondary is legit, and the Hurricanes will try everything they can to stop Indiana’s receivers. This is where Nowakowski comes into the game plan.
Two of the three Miami linebackers grade poorly in pass coverage, and they’ve allowed at least 28 yards to the tight end in each of their last three games. Nowakowski is not a high-volume receiver, as he’s only got 30 receptions in 15 games, but he’s gone over 17.5 yards in six straight games for Indiana.
I hope he makes it seven straight games over.
PICK: Riley Nowakowski Over/Under 17.5 receiving yards
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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