Apparently, being ranked preseason No. 1 doesn’t mean you’re automatically the favorite in Week 1.
Case in point: Texas is an underdog to No. 3 Ohio State in to open the season, despite the Longhorns topping the preseason AP poll.
And bettors should note that, historically, this is unprecedented.
Dating back to 1978, Texas is the first top-ranked college football team to be an underdog in Week 1.
According to John Ewing at BetMGM, however, the Longhorns’ line is on the move.
Yes, they’re still ‘dogs, but at the sportsbook, Texas has shifted to +2.5 from +3. Not only that, 59% of the money is on Texas to cover.
Can quarterback Arch Manning help lead the Longhorns to victory in Week 1 over Ohio State?
Speaking of the public believing in Burnt Orange, just last month, one bettor placed a $300K wager on the Longhorns to win the title at +500.
That big bet could cash in for $1.8 million if Texas wins the College Football Playoff.
When it comes to line movement, it’s also worth noting that Texas’ title futures have shortened to +475 from +500 over the last month.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at some of the Longhorns’ other markets at BetMGM as of Aug. 13.
College Football Playoff first overall seed
+500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
SEC Champions
+275 (bet $10 to win $37.50 total)
Texas regular-season wins
Over 9.5: -190 (bet $10 to win $15.26 total)
Under 9.5: +155 (bet $10 to win $25.50 total)
To Make the SEC Championship Game
+120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
So, should Texas be the underdog when it faces off against Ohio State on Aug. 30 on FOX?
“First Things First” co-host Nick Wright understands bookmakers’ logic.
“When you’re No. 1 vs. No. 3 and it’s at The Shoe, then you’re going to be the underdog, especially when Ohio State might have the No. 1 player in the 2026 draft and 2027 draft,” Wright said.
“You’re not going to be a favorite in Ohio State against a great Buckeye team.”
Chris Broussard, on the other hand, contends that the line is disrespectful to the Longhorns.
“If [Texas] is the most effective group within the nation, then they’re presupposed to win. Do not make them No. 1 within the preseason after which say, “You have received one week to be the most effective group within the nation, after which that is it.”
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