Alabama’s 2024 season? It was somewhat shaky.
With that, bettors might be wondering if they should roll with the Tide to go Over 9.5 wins in 2025 or if they should back the Under.
Let’s break it down.
Last year was head coach Kalen DeBoer’s first season at Alabama, and he produced a 9-3 record. All three losses were in conference and on the road.
The Tide were able to beat Georgia by seven and got two blowout wins against LSU and Missouri. Overall, it was a respectable first season for the new head coach, but it was a year full of uneven play, mental mistakes and sloppiness that we hadn’t seen at Alabama under Nick Saban.
Still, there’s no cause for concern for me heading into 2025 because of DeBoer’s track record.
DeBoer spent nine years as a head coach between NAIA Sioux Falls, Fresno State and Washington before being hired as Alabama’s head coach in January 2024. He succeeded the legendary Saban after he retired.
At Sioux Falls, DeBoer went 11-2 in his first season before going 56-1 in the next four seasons with three national championships.
He then took over Fresno State during the 2020 COVID-19 year and went 3-3. Throw that year away. He went 9-3 the following season before being hired by Washington. DeBoer went 25-3 in his two seasons at UW, losing in the national title game to Michigan to end the 2023 season.
That’s 104-12 as a head coach before heading to Alabama. He can coach and I expect a better product from the Tide this season.
A hallmark of a DeBoer team is a sensational offense.
Explosive. Attacking. Multiple.
That is not what we saw at times from the Tide in 2024, so DeBoer hired back Ryan Grubb to run the offense.
Grubb was the OC at Sioux Falls, Fresno State and Washington with DeBoer.
Can Ryan Grubb help get the Tide’s offense rolling?
At Washington, Grubb produced one of the best passing offenses in the sport with quarterback Michael Penix Jr., a Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line and a group of NFL receivers. While we are unsure if he’s got a Heisman-capable quarterback, the Tide’s offensive line is one of the best in the country, and Alabama has the skill position players to rival those at Washington.
Now, let’s talk about the starting QB, Ty Simpson.
Simpson is more in the mold of Penix than he is Jalen Milroe, who started for the Tide last season. Simpson is tall and will operate a passing game from the pocket with more efficiency, while being less likely to run or use his legs.
That pairs with the offense Grubb and DeBoer ran at Washington.
While it might take some time for the offense to get humming at the pace it would like, I trust this staff and Alabama’s talented players to get it done.
Now, let’s look at the defense.
The Bama D was not what we’d seen under Saban, but that should surprise no one.
The Tide lost a defensive genius and some of their better players hit the portal. The defense was far better at the end of the season than it was in the beginning, which is something important to note.
Alabama returns 69% of its defensive production, including multiple defensive linemen.
The linebacker room is down Jihaad Campbell, but it has plenty of experience, plus the addition of Nikhai Hill Green from Colorado. The secondary returns five players who have starting experience.
In short, this roster might be the most talented in the SEC.
The Tide have recruited well after DeBoer’s shaky start. The schedule is manageable. Alabama should beat Florida State and Wisconsin in the non-conference, and it is at Georgia after a bye.
Alabama also doesn’t play Texas or Texas A&M.
I’d roll with Alabama going Over 9.5 wins.
PICK: Alabama Over 9.5 wins
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