“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
You win some, you lose some. Last week, thankfully, we won more than we lost — and we even got a push.
Let’s see if we can get all Ws in college football Week 5.
Last Week: 3-2-1
Season: 10-8-1
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No. 8 Florida State @ Virginia
I don’t think this will be straightforward for the Noles, on what could be a spooky Friday night in Charlottesville. At the very least, I think the UVA offense will have some success putting points on the board. Question is, can the Hoos defense slow the FSU run game and the big play potential of Tommy Castellanos? Are the FSU offensive numbers a bit inflated from games against Kent State and East Texas A&M? Probably. But this is clearly an improved unit with the new QB and Gus Malzahn as OC. FSU just needs to get out with a win to set up a monster top-10 matchup with Miami next week in Tallahassee. I think it will, but it won’t be easy.
PICK: Virginia (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
The CU offense has a chance with Kaidon Salter at QB. BYU took care of business in what could have been a tricky spot last week at ECU and now has to go back on the road here. Its defense has carried it so far, but CU should offer a bigger challenge here.
PICK: Colorado (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
Northwestern is laying 6.5? I’ll take the points.
PICK: UCLA (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright
San Diego State @ Northern Illinois
So San Diego State shut out Cal last week as a 14-point ‘dog and is now laying points on the road? This isn’t the NIU team of last year that won at Notre Dame, but I’ll still grab the points with NIU.
PICK: NIU (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
K-State has lost three toss-up games against Iowa State, Army and Arizona. UCF is undefeated and coming off a rout of a bad UNC team. Feels like a spot for the Cats to get right and put up a big number on a team that is still expected to finish at or near the bottom of the Big 12.
PICK: Kansas State (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points
Arizona @ No. 14 Iowa State
Iowa State has been the opposite of Kansas State. It has won its three coin-flip games and sits at 4-0, although the team’s stats do not exactly profile like a 4-0 team. If Arizona can pull an upset here, the Cats could be looking at a 6-0 start. Noah Fifita might not have Tet McMillan to throw to anymore, but he’s making great decisions so far. Also, I did add an Iowa State U9.5 wins bet to my ledger this week. The juice is a little steep, but it’s a wager on some of Iowa State’s close-game luck evening out.
PICK: Arizona (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright
JKS and Cal was the talk of the college football world last week. Some were even saying the Bears could make the ACC title game. Then came a complete debacle of a game at San Diego State where the Bears were shut out 34-0 as a two-TD favorite. My guess here is we see the JKS we saw against Minnesota and Oregon State, and Cal bounces back against a really bad defense and a team which can’t run the ball a lick.
PICK: Cal (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright
Auburn got screwed last week, there’s no other way to put it. How the Tigers respond is yet to be seen, but I think they will carry a lot of angst to College Station and play well here. A&M hasn’t been great against the run this year, which should help Auburn’s offense. It’s a bit ironic that Auburn goes to A&M as the Aggies were the beneficiaries of a no-call on a blatant hold against Notre Dame on the final play to get out of South Bend with a win. Reed and Craver will give Auburn a heck of a test on the other side of the ball, but I think this at minimum is a close one.
PICK: Auburn (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright
No. 16 Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest
This is the perfect ACC Wheel of Destiny, ACC Coastal kind of chaos. Just when you expect someone to make a run, something wild happens. The Yellow Jackets are gonna run to the ACC title game with ease, right? I doubt it will be that easy. Now, I don’t think the boys at Groves Stadium are gonna pull the outright win, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Deacs with at least a chance to break through the back door late and get a gross cover.
PICK: Wake Forest (+14) to lose by fewer than 14 points or win outright
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON MONEYLINE
Last Week: 3-2 (+5.3)
Season: 8-10 (+8.55)
Virginia +21
UCLA +200
Northern Illinois +115
Arizona +205
Cal +200
Auburn +200
Colorado +220
BEAR BYTES
No. 17 Alabama @ No. 5 Georgia
This is just the fourth time since Georgia’s 33-game home winning streak began that the Bulldogs are a single-digit favorite and the first time they have been favored by less than a touchdown. In the three previous instances, UGA was a single-digit favorite in its home winning streak. The Bulldogs won each game by at least 14 points and allowed a total of 36 points in the three games.
As an underdog, Kalen Deboer’s teams have won eight of 11 games outright and covered nine of 11. As a Power 5 head coach, those marks improve to six outright wins in seven tries. The 2023 national title game is the lone loss both straight up and against the spread (ATS). That includes a win over Georgia last year as a two-point ‘dog.
No. 15 Tennessee @ Mississippi State
Mississippi State didn’t beat a P4 team last year and now looks to record its first SEC win since Oct. 21, 2023. Miss State is 1-15 over the last two years in SEC play.
No. 6 Oregon @ No. 3 Penn State
This is the first time since 2022 vs. Minnesota that Penn State has been a home favorite of less than a touchdown. The Nittany Lions won that game 45-17 as a 5.5-point favorite. The last time Penn State was a home favorite of four points or fewer was Sept. 2021, when the Nittany Lions beat Auburn 28-20 as 4-point favorite.
Of the 135 qualified QBs in QBR, Drew Allar entered the week 106th at 38.8 (scale of 1-100). That’s right behind South Alabama’s Bishop Davenport and West Virginia’s Nicco Marchiol.
In nine career starts vs. ranked P4 opponents, Allar is 3-6, completing 54.1% of his passes with 11 TDs, five INTs and averaging 165.7 YPG. He’s thrown for under 150 yards in five of those nine games, completed under 50% of his passes in three of them and is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt.
Since the start of last season, there have been 13 matchups of AP top-six teams. Penn State has lost all three it has played by a combined 18 points.
Penn State is 4-20 against top-10 opponents under James Franklin. One of the wins came against Boise State last year in the CFP. If you limit it to top-10 Big Ten opponents, Penn State is 2-18 in those games. Penn State is 3-11 when it is also ranked in the top 10 (1-9 vs. Big Ten).
Dan Lanning’s team has been an underdog away from home four times. It’s lost all four games outright.
Dating back to the 2022 CFP and TCU’s upset win over Michigan, there have been 21 top-six matchups. The point spread hasn’t mattered in any of them. Thirteen favorites have won and covered, while eight underdogs have won outright.
Undefeated and a big ‘dog
Undefeated and disrespected or about to get a reality check? UCF is 3-0 and is a 5.5-point ‘dog at 1-3 K-State. Then you have 4-0 Mississippi State, which is a 7.5-point home ’dog vs. Tennessee. There’s also 3-0 Arizona, which is a 6.5-point ‘dog at Iowa State.
New Mexico State @ New Mexico
This is the first time since 1992, when both were 1-0, that New Mexico and New Mexico State will play and both have a winning record. This is the first time since 1964 it’s happened that they have played more than one game in the season (UNM was 3-2, New Mexico State was 3-2).
San Diego State @ Northern Illinois
As a 14-point favorite, Cal was shut out 34-0 by San Diego State last Saturday. Excluding the 2020 COVID-shortened season, the last time a favorite of at least 14 points was shut out was 1991, when 17-point favorite Ohio lost 44-0 to Buffalo. The last time it happened in a Power 4 league was 1997, when 17-point favorite Auburn lost to Mississippi State 20-0. Dating back to 1978, it’s happened 11 times, including the most famous instance where No. 1 Nebraska was shut out by Arizona State 19-0 as a 24.5-point favorite. Now the Aztecs are 2.5-point road favorites at Northern Illinois.
UCF @ Kansas State
UCF is 3-0 and is currently a 5.5-point underdog at 1-3 Kansas State. This marks the 14th time since 1978 that a team 3-0 or better is an underdog to a team 1-3 or worse. The previous 13 teams went 2-11 straight up. If you narrow it down to teams that were at least a 5-point ‘dog, those five teams went 0-5 and only 1999 Oklahoma, which was a 6-point ’dog at Notre Dame, covered.
Auburn @ No. 9 Texas A&M
Auburn has lost nine straight and 14 of its last 15 road games against ranked opponents (0-5 under Hugh Freeze).
No. 24 TCU @ Arizona State
Last year, there were four instances of an unranked team being favored on its home field over a team ranked outside the top 10. All four ranked road underdogs won the game outright.
No. 21 USC @ Illinois
Under Lincoln Riley, USC has been favored away from home 15 times. The Trojans have covered just three. Two came in the Rose Bowl against UCLA. The other came at Stanford. That’s 0-11 ATS with six outright losses as a favorite outside the state of California under Riley.
Illinois was an underdog eight times last year. It won five outright, including two of the three times it was a home underdog.
UCLA @ Northwestern
This is just the second time in the last 37 Big Ten games Northwestern is favored. And it’s the first time since 2020 Northwestern has been this big a favorite in a conference game.
No. 1 Ohio State @ Washington
Ohio State is 17-0 straight up in true road games against unranked opponents under Ryan Day. However, this is the first time the Buckeyes will be favored by fewer than 14 points in any of them.
Dating back to 2022, there have been eight instances where No. 1 has been on the road against an unranked team. No. 1 failed to cover in seven of them, including Alabama losing outright at Vanderbilt last year as a 23.5-point favorite. This is the first time since 2012 when Notre Dame was a 5-point favorite against USC that No. 1 was a single-digit favorite in this role.
No. 11 Indiana @ Iowa
Under Curt Cignetti, Indiana is 15-0 straight up as a favorite (12-3 ATS). In Big Ten games, IU is 9-0 straight up (8-1 ATS) as a favorite. Only one of the games was decided by fewer than 14 points.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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