College football Week 9 features a slate of Big Ten matchups that should be interesting to watch.
One of those will be UCLA’s game against the top-ranked Hoosiers. Can the Bruins keep alive the magic they’ve found since firing their head coach?
Another game I’ve got my eye on is Illinois–Washington as the Huskies try to get a win over the ranked Illini.
Check out how I’m wagering on those games, along with my insights.
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The UCLA story is remarkable.
The Bruins started the season 0-3, with blowout losses to Utah and New Mexico. Head coach Deshaun Foster was replaced by Tim Skipper and after a loss to Northwestern in his first game as head coach, Skipper made the move to Jerry Neuheisel to run the offense.
They then scored 42 points in an upset win over Penn State, followed by 38 points at Michigan State and then 20 against Maryland. UCLA won all three of those games, while only allowing 13 and 17 to the last two opponents. Both the offense and defense have improved with the change at coach.
However, despite the underdog story, UCLA is going to be in a world of hurt this weekend at Indiana.
The Hoosiers are a machine. They play so well as a group. It’s a testament to their coaching staff’s preparation and their players’ execution. Offensively, this group isn’t complicated, but they are efficient. It’s runs between the tackles, RPOs, throws outside the numbers and then some shot plays.
Indiana’s quarterback Fernando Mendoza is completing 73.5% of his passes with 23 touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s at 13 yards per completion with his fantastic group of receivers. Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. are weapons that are nearly unguardable. Indiana’s offense is fourth in yards per play. It ranks 11th in rushing success and fourth on third down.
It’s hard to distinguish by looking at the Bruins’ early-season defensive stats and disappointing play, but they are 120th in points per drive. They did allow 35 to Penn State in the win. UCLA’s pressure rate is 136th in the country, and it ranks 135th on third down.
However, in the last two games, UCLA’s defense only allowed a first down on 43% of third downs. That’s a tick better than its overall numbers.
Still, I just think Indiana will have its way offensively with the Bruins defense. I’m not sure what the case is for UCLA to slow down Indiana.
On another note, the Bruins’ offensive turnaround has been fun to watch from afar.
UCLA made waves this offseason with the addition of Nico Iamaleava, the former five-star recruit from Tennessee. The offense, including Iamaleava, was not good in the first four games of the season. There was no consistency and the QB looked lost.
Since the change at coordinator, the UCLA offense has come alive. Iamaleava looks like a quarterback who is confident for once. He’s also using his legs to create explosive plays and win on third down. However, it’s worth noting the UCLA offense has gotten progressively worse since that Penn State game.
The more tape on the new scheme and the less success.
A success rate of 51% against Penn State, down to 49% against Michigan State and then 41% versus Maryland. Iamaleava’s completion percentage has gone down also. It was at nearly 71% against Penn State, then 67% against Michigan State and then 60% against Maryland.
Indiana’s defense doesn’t give up yards easily. Look at that Oregon game — just a single touchdown allowed to the Ducks offense. The Hoosiers are third in the country in opposing points per drive and 14th in yards per play. They can allow some explosives, but that’s about it.
A pressure rate that ranks 14th and a third-down defense that’s fifth in the country? I do not expect UCLA to score much in this game.
UCLA is a great story. That story won’t end on Saturday, but it’s going to hit a big hurdle.
PICK: Indiana (-24.5) to win by more than 24.5 points
No. 23 Illinois @ Washington
A rainy day in the forecast for Seattle won’t deter points from raining down.
Illinois has played three offenses near the caliber of Washington and the Illini allowed points in every one of them.
Washington’s offense is 18th in yards per drive and 13th in points per drive. That includes a poor showing against Ohio State’s defense just a few weeks ago. Washington is also much better at home under Jedd Fisch than on the road. The Huskies score more points and have fewer turnovers. Dynamic quarterback Demond Williams completes more passes and has more rushing yards at home. Running back Jonah Coleman averages nearly three more yards a carry at home. The Huskies have fewer penalties on offense at home.
You get the point.
This Huskies offense is playing an Illinois defense that’s not good. The Illini rank 80th in yards per play and 98th in points per drive. They allowed 63 points to Indiana, 32 to USC and 38 to Ohio State. Purdue’s offense had a 45% success rate against Illinois.
It’s just not a good defense.
On the other hand, there is the Huskies defense, which is terrible on third down and at allowing points.
Washington is 98th on third-down defense, 76th in pressure rate and 74th in points per drive. The Huskies only forced 20 punts this season on defense. They’ve survived with teams failing on fourth down and some timely turnovers. They also just haven’t played an offense like Illinois.
Yes, the Illini have issues on their offensive line, but their quarterback is solid, and they can score points against defenses like Washington.
I’m taking the Over here.
PICK: Over 54.5 points scored by both teams combined
This is a bounce-back spot for both of these offenses against two poor defenses.
Heading into Rutgers’ game against Oregon, the Rutgers offense was scoring points.
The Scarlet Knights are 38th in points per drive and are above average on third down and passing success rate. Their quarterback, Athan Kaliakmanis, threw for at least 249 yards in the three Big Ten games before playing Oregon. He threw for over 330 yards in two of those games. They have good receivers that create separation and break tackles.
After the starting offense only scored three points against Oregon, I expect it to get back on track when facing the Boilermakers.
Purdue’s defense is 104th in yards per play and 103rd in points per drive. That unit gets no pressure and isn’t good on third down. This is a favorable spot for the Rutgers offense to get right. It’s also worth noting that Purdue has allowed 33, 56, 43 and 27 in the four games before playing Northwestern last weekend.
The Boilermakers might be without their quarterback, but I don’t think that’s going to matter much here.
Malachi Singleton took over for Browne against Northwestern, and he was 11-for-20 passing for nearly 200 yards. The problems for the Purdue offense against Northwestern were the same issues that have plagued them all season — turnovers and missed opportunities.
In the second half against Northwestern, Purdue’s offense went punt, turnover-on-downs, fumble, turnover-on-downs, interception, fumble and turnover-on-downs. Just a horrendous offensive performance from a group that had not played that poorly.
The Boilermakers scored against Illinois and USC. Now they are facing a Rutgers defense that’s one of the worst in the country at 136th in yards per drive and 130th in points per drive.
Rutgers is also small upfront and gets pushed around. So I think Purdue can score in this game.
PICK: Over 58.5 points scored by both teams combined
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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