2025 MLB playoff daring predictions: Aaron Decide makes historical past, Bryce Harper, Vlad Guerrero Jr. make magic, extra

The common season is over and the 2025 MLB postseason begins Tuesday with the best-of-three Wild Card Sequence. A couple of division and wild card races got here right down to the wire in Sport 162, and we can’t have to attend lengthy for extra high-stakes baseball.

That is 12 months 4 of the 12-team postseason format. Right here is that this yr’s playoff bracket:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Bye: Blue Jays (No. 1) and Mariners (No. 2)
Wild card: Tigers (No. 6) at Guardians (No. 3) (winner performs Mariners)
Wild card: Pink Sox (No. 5) at Yankees (No. 4) (winner performs Blue Jays)

NATIONAL LEAGUE     

Bye: Brewers (No. 1) and Phillies (No. 2)
Wild card: Reds (No. 6) at Dodgers (No. 3) (winner performs Phillies)
Wild card: Padres (No. 5) at Cubs (No. 4) (winner performs Brewers)

The Reds and particularly the Guardians mounted enormous comebacks to earn their postseason berths. Cleveland was 15 ½ video games behind the Tigers at one level. It’s the largest division comeback ever, besting the 1978 Yankees (14 video games). Now the Guardians and Tigers will see one another once more within the Wild Card Sequence. It’s going to be their third sequence in three weeks.

My preseason daring predictions weren’t half unhealthy, and my motto is should you get a whole lot of daring predictions right, you weren’t daring sufficient. Or at the very least that is what I inform myself to really feel higher. Anyway, let’s do some postseason daring predictions, we could? Let’s get to it.

1. Ohtani will begin a recreation and shut a recreation

This isn’t that uncommon. Walker Buehler and David Peterson did it final postseason, and so did Tyler Holton (although he was solely an opener). Shohei Ohtani is essentially the most uncommon of gamers although, and utilizing him on this means would require some creativity and in addition push him to some extent that perhaps the Dodgers do not need to do in his first full yr again from elbow surgical procedure.

There’s already discuss utilizing Ohtani out of the bullpen, and doing so would take him out of the sport because the DH. The Dodgers do not need to do this, clearly, so the best transfer is utilizing Ohtani to shut the sport. Use him because the final pitcher and you do not have to fret about dropping his bat. (At the least not until he blows the lead and the sport goes to further innings.)

The bullpen has been a significant sore spot for the Dodgers this yr. Ohtani got here out of the bullpen within the 2023 World Baseball Traditional Championship Sport, so he has some expertise doing it, and I boldly predict that in some unspecified time in the future this October the stakes and the necessity might be so nice that Ohtani closes out a Dodgers win along with his beginning pitcher duties.

2. Decide will set the AL report for intentional walks

Considerably quietly, Yankees captain Aaron Decide set the American League report for intentional walks this season. His 36 intentional free passes broke the AL report held by Ted Williams (34 in 1957) and have been essentially the most by any participant since Albert Pujols had 38 in 2010. The one-season intentional stroll leaderboard is decidedly NL heavy. Decide’s complete is an AL report however solely the thirteenth highest all-time.

There isn’t any motive to assume avoiding Decide will not proceed within the postseason, even with Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice doing nice work hitting behind him all yr. Right here is the single-postseason intentional stroll leaderboard:

1. Barry Bonds: 13 in 2002
2. Albert Pujols: 8 in 2011
3. Barry Bonds: 6 in 2003
4. Chipper Jones: 6 in 1999
5. A number of tied with 5

Among the many gamers tied with 5 are ALers George Brett (1985), Jorge Posada (2000), Josh Hamilton (2010), and Miguel Cabrera (2011). Getting to 6 intentional walks this postseason feels doable and I boldly predict it should occur. I’ll be aware that Decide has been deliberately walked solely as soon as in 58 profession postseason video games, therefore the boldness of this prediction.

3. Vlad Jr. can have a signature second

It was powerful sledding for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. down the stretch because the Blue Jays held off the Yankees within the AL East. He had a .375 OPS in Toronto’s last 14 video games, and supervisor John Schneider even known as Guerrero out a bit when he “sort of simply gave (an) at-bat away” in a loss to the Rays on Sept. 18. It is not usually a supervisor shades his star participant like that.

This daring prediction says Vlad Jr. can have a signature second this postseason. What qualifies as a signature second? Lots of issues, however you recognize it once you see it. An enormous hit. A terrific defensive play. And even an error. That may be your signature second, proper? There are a lot of nice gamers all through historical past who needed to dwell down a foul mistake in October.

I do not know what Guerrero’s signature second might be precisely however I am guessing will probably be a constructive one for the Blue Jays. Even after his sluggish end to the common season, it seems like Guerrero is on the verge of doing one thing huge this postseason. Vlad Jr. undoubtedly has a aptitude for the dramatic and the 2025 Blue Jays have been nothing if not dramatic.

4. Harper will hit a walk-off homer

Do you know the Phillies have the longest energetic walk-off residence run drought in baseball? They’ve had loads of walk-off wins the final two seasons (15 to be precise), nevertheless it has been greater than two calendar years since their final walk-off residence run. Listed here are the longest walk-off residence run droughts in baseball:

1. Phillies: Kyle Schwarber vs. Dodgers (June. 9, 2023)
2. Reds: Christian Encarnacion-Strand vs. Nationals (March 31, 2024)
3. Pirates: Yasmani Grandal vs. Reds (Aug. 25, 2024)
4. White Sox: Andrew Benintendi vs. Athletics (Sept. 14, 2024)
5. Braves: Travis d’Arnaud vs. Royals (Sept. 28, 2024)

The opposite 25 groups have hit a walk-off residence run this season. So, naturally, this subsequent daring prediction says the Phillies will finish their walk-off residence run drought in October, and Bryce Harper looks like the proper participant to do the honors. He has 17 residence runs in 53 profession postseason video games plus six profession walk-offs, albeit just one with the Phillies and none since 2019.

There was at the very least one walk-off residence run each postseason since 2016 and I predict the streak will proceed this yr, and Harper would be the one to increase it. He’ll snap Philadelphia’s walk-off residence run drought within the course of.

5. San Diego’s bullpen can have a scoreless sequence

The Padres have 4 closer-caliber relievers in Jeremiah Estrada, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and precise nearer Robert Suarez. Below-the-radar righty David Morgan is a candidate to make a reputation for himself this postseason too. Even with Jason Adam struggling a season-ending quad damage, the Padres has the deepest bullpen among the many 12 postseason golf equipment.

San Diego’s beginning rotation is a bit shaky and the offense scores juuust sufficient runs. Their method is to scratch out a lead after which hand it over to that bullpen. This postseason, that bullpen will give them a very scoreless sequence, I boldly predict. This isn’t truly that unusual, notably within the best-of-three Wild Card Sequence period.

5 bullpens have had a scoreless sequence because the postseason expanded to 12 groups in 2022:

I am shocked solely 4 groups bought their bullpen scoreless streak to 5 innings! To boost this daring prediction, I will say the Padres cross these 2022 Guardians and get at the very least 11 scoreless innings from their bullpen in a sequence this October. 

The all-time report is 17 scoreless innings for a bullpen in a postseason sequence. The Dodgers did that towards the Cubs within the 2017 NLCS. No different bullpen has thrown even 14 scoreless innings in a single sequence. I do not assume these Padres will high these 2017 NLCS Dodgers, however I predict they get previous 11 for essentially the most shutout innings in a sequence within the Wild Card Sequence period. 

6. Starters will common greater than 5 innings per begin

A modest goal, that is, nevertheless it additionally one beginning pitchers failed to succeed in in every of the final 4 postseasons. From 2021-24, starters averaged 4.0, 5.0, 4.6, and 4.2 innings per begin in October. The final time starters averaged greater than 5 innings in October was 2019 (5.1). The postseason has turn into so, so bullpen heavy.

This subsequent daring prediction says managers will zig after years of zagging, and belief their starters sufficient to get them previous 5 innings per begin this postseason. I am not saying it’s going to turn into the October of workhorses. Simply one thing like 5.1 innings per begin after years within the fours. I predict this for 2 causes:

1. There are some bona fide horses on this postseason. Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodón, Cristopher Sánchez, and Tarik Skubal all completed high eight in baseball in innings. The Dodgers have wholesome starters too, for as soon as.

2. There are some unhealthy bullpens on the market. And when the bullpen’s unhealthy, groups are inclined to lean on their starters extra. I believe we’re in for some “let’s attempt to squeeze a couple of extra outs of our starter” video games this postseason, which can up starter innings.

This won’t be a prediction as a lot it’s a hope on my half. Beginning pitchers are the closest factor to baseball’s principal character and I feel the sport is extra thrilling when a starter is efficient and pitches deep. The bullpen door swinging open and the parade of relievers beginning every night time is a significant drag. This October, the starter will once more be the headliner. On that be aware …

7. There might be an entire recreation

It has been nearly a decade because the final postseason full recreation: Justin Verlander, then with the Astros, struck out 13 and allowed one run towards the Yankees in Sport 2 of the 2017 ALCS. There was an entire recreation within the postseason yearly from 2009-17, after which they simply stopped. Bullpens took over and we have not seen an entire recreation since Verlander in 2017.

This daring prediction says the whole recreation drought ends this October. I will get particular too: Max Fried will do it. Fried looks like a superb candidate as a result of a) he is very environment friendly on his greatest days, b) the Yankees’ offense may give him a whole lot of assist and respiratory room, and c) New York’s bullpen just isn’t nice. Supervisor Aaron Boone might bounce on the likelihood to keep away from his aid crew.

8. The house staff will win three Wild Card Sequence

Here is a bizarre one: The highway staff has received eight of 12 Wild Card Sequence within the three years with the 12-team postseason format, together with three of 4 final yr. Residence discipline has not been advantageous in that best-of-three sequence. Not but, anyway. This daring prediction says the Wild Card Sequence might be benefit residence staff this yr. They will win at the very least three of the 4 sequence.

I do not see a lot motive to consider the highway staff has a definite benefit within the Wild Card Sequence. The highway staff being 8-4 in these 12 sequence is small pattern measurement and baseball randomness to the max. We’re due for a course correction. I will not go so far as to foretell which residence groups win the Wild Card Sequence, solely that at the very least three of them will advance. It is time.

9. A staff that has by no means received a World Sequence will play within the Fall Traditional

That provides us three candidates: Brewers, Mariners, and Padres.The Mariners have by no means even performed within the World Sequence. They joined the league as an enlargement staff in 1977. The Brewers (1982) and Padres (1984 and 1998) have at the very least received pennants. (The Rays and Rockies are the one different groups with out a World Sequence title.) 

The Brewers and Mariners have a leg up on the Padres, who’re a wild card staff. The Brewers and Mariners received their divisions and secured a Wild Card Sequence bye. Skipping a spherical boosts your World Sequence odds considerably. Do not take heed to anybody who says the layoff is a drawback. The Dodgers and Yankees had byes and went to the World Sequence final yr, bear in mind.

We might get a Brewers vs. Mariners or Padres vs. Mariners matchup within the World Sequence this yr, which might assure a first-time World Sequence champion. I will not go that far with this daring prediction, however I’ll predict one of many final two groups standing might be enjoying for his or her first ever World Sequence title. 

10. The World Sequence will go seven video games

My final daring prediction is one other one which qualifies as a hope as a lot as a prediction. We’re overdue for a World Sequence Sport 7. We’ve not had one since Howie Kendrick banged the foul pole in Houston in 2019, and that basically spoiled us. That was the third World Sequence Sport 7 in 4 years and the fourth in six years. We’ve not had one since.

The present five-year drought with out a World Sequence Sport 7 just isn’t a report, however it’s shut. The longest drought is eight years from 2003-10. There was a six-year drought from 1913-18, and that is it. These are solely two World Sequence Sport 7 droughts longer than this one. I feel we’re all pulling for this one. The World Sequence Sport 7 drought ends this yr. It has been foretold.