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Honestly, there’s nothing more exciting than knowing we get to go to bed Sunday knowing which two teams will be facing off in the Super Bowl.
It’s what we’ve been waiting for and wagering on since August.
So let’s get a few more bets in ahead of Conference Championship Weekend and, hopefully, make some extra cash before the Big Game on Feb. 8.
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No. 2 Patriots @ No. 1 Broncos
What a fascinating AFC Championship Game.
On one side, you have the upstart Patriots with MVP candidate Drake Maye playing in his first road playoff game in his second season. On the other side, you have the Broncos, who have some quarterback woes.
Denver is the 1-seed in the AFC but are without quarterback Bo Nix, who broke his ankle at the end of the divisional-round win over Buffalo.
The Broncos will now start Jarrett Stidham at quarterback in place of the injured Nix.
Stidham has started four NFL games in six seasons but hasn’t thrown a pass in the regular season in two years. So while he’s been in the league for a while, he’s new to playing in a situation like this.
Stidham is fortunate to play for head coach Sean Payton, who has a track record of success in the NFL with backup quarterbacks. In 2019 with New Orleans, backup QB Teddy Bridgewater went 5-0, and in 2023, Stidham went 1-1 when he stepped in for Russell Wilson.
Payton’s creative play calling, his use of formations and personnel, and his ability to find easy completions are hallmarks of his successful approach with backup quarterbacks.
One way to boost confidence in your backup QB is to have him throw the ball early in a game, allowing him to get in a rhythm. These are not drop-back pass attempts. Instead, it’s about moving the pocket, and incorporating the play-action pass, RPOs and the screen game.
I expect Payton to use these plays early for Stidham, while the New England defense is geared up to stop the run. We are going to see the best early pass concepts for success for Stidham. I like him to start fast for this reason.
Give me Stidham Over 39.5 passing yards in the first quarter.
PICK: Jarrett Stidham Over 39.5 first-quarter passing yards
Here’s a second one for the AFC Conference Championship.
I’m going to stick with another Broncos’ prop wager and take running back RJ Harvey Under 40.5 rushing yards on the assumption that J.K. Dobbins is coming back from injured reserve.
Denver desperately needs Dobbins back in the lineup.
The Broncos have a fantastic offensive line, but their run game output does not reflect that, because they currently have two small running backs who just aren’t workhorse players. Harvey is a rookie from UCF and listed at 5-foot-8, 210 pounds. He’s rushed for fewer yards per game the more he’s been in the lineup. He rushed for 75 yards against the Raiders on Dec. 7 and has regressed every week since then, gaining only 65, 50, 43, 28 and 20.
The Broncos opened up Dobbins’ practice window this week and reports are that he’s planning to play on Sunday.
So I’m going under Harvey’s rushing prop and when Dobbins’ props come up, I will grab his Over.
PICK: Harvey Under 40.5 rushing yards
The last time these two played, the Seahawks won 38-37 in a wild Thursday Night Football game.
The Rams were without Davante Adams and all the targets went to Puka Nacua. He had 12 catches for 225 yards and dominated the Seahawks defense.
I’d imagine Seattle’s goal on defense in this game will be making sure Nacua doesn’t do that again.
Adams returned from injury for the Rams’ first playoff game and has seen 19 targets over the Rams’ two postseason matchups. He had 13 against the Panthers and six last Sunday against the Bears. However, he’s only had seven catches on those 19 targets.
That changes against Seattle because it must for the Rams to have success.
I like Adams’ Over 49.5 receiving yards in this contest. L.A. needs to give him targets, as Seattle shades the defense to Nacua.
Finally, the Rams’ offense just functions better when Adams eclipses his receiving yards.
PICK: Davante Adams Over 49.5 receiving yards
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