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I keep finding ways to pick losers this season.
It’s not great.
Here’s hoping things turn around soon and that football underdogs will eventually find their way home. Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
2025 Record: (21-29-3, -10.7 units)
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No. 10 Miami (-11, O/U 50.5) @ SMU
This was +12.5 when I picked it during “Bear Bets” on Thursday, and I’m still feeling it at +11. There’s been some serious SMU support the last couple of days, mostly off whispers that Miami is dealing with some key injuries. Either way, this is the Hurricanes’ first game outside Florida all season and Mario Cristobal is 4-10 straight up (SU) in November and December as the Canes’ coach.
PICK: SMU (+11) to lose by fewer than 11 points or win outright
No. 13 Texas Tech (-7.5, O/U 51.5) @ Kansas State
You cannot say that Kansas State doesn’t scratch and claw. This season could’ve been mailed in weeks ago, yet the Fighting Bill Snyders have ripped off three wins in four games after starting the year 1-3. And they’ve been running the ball much more efficiently with the emergence of sophomore Joe Jackson. Texas Tech will score, but so will Kansas State.
PICK: Kansas State (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points or win outright
No. 9 Vanderbilt @ No. 20 Texas (-3, O/U 47)
We bet against Vanderbilt last week and Mizzou QB Beau Pribula was carted off the field with an ankle injury after getting stuffed at the goal line of a tie game. It be like that sometimes. I respect the story, but I’ll be honest, I think this Vandy team keeps hitting on 16 and landing on 21. Diego Pavia will have to play like the Heisman Trophy winner to beat the Horns D in Austin.
PICK: Texas (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Penn State @ No. 1 Ohio State (-19.5, O/U 44.5)
Sigh. I’m taking the points with Penn State in the first half. I don’t know if they’ll hang around for four quarters, but expect this very talented Nittany Lions defense to bring energy early. This is a big number for the full-game spread, although Vegas books did write sharp bets at PSU +21 and +20. If Penn State takes an early 7-0 lead, I might fall off the couch.
PICK: Penn State first half +10.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-2, O/U 52.5) @ Buffalo Bills
I wrote about this game earlier this week. Everyone knows the Chiefs are back, and the offense has looked amazing at full strength. Let’s remember, these two teams played in Orchard Park last regular season and the Bills closed as 2.5-point favorites. I don’t think a near 5-point shift is justified. Josh Allen has all the tools to keep this close, and I’m taking the points.
PICK: Bills (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points or win outright
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, O/U 44) @ Las Vegas Raiders
Brock Bowers, come on down. The Raiders’ star tight end returns to the mix after missing three games with a knee sprain. Reports have been stellar from practice and Bowers will boost an offense that certainly needs boosting. Jacksonville is such an inconsistent squad and I do enjoy going against the Jaguars as road favorites. Travis Hunter’s absence doesn’t help.
PICK: Raiders (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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