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Alright, alright — Texas (-3) somehow didn’t cover against Vanderbilt despite leading 34-10 in the fourth quarter, but we still stacked a 4-1-1 slate last week.
Stay hot, kid. And stay the course.
I’ve got six more football bets this weekend. Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
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2025 Record: (25-30-4, -7.8 units)
No. 9 Oregon (-6.5, O/U 42) @ No. 20 Iowa
When Indiana went to Iowa City in late September, it was tied 10-10 after three quarters. Indiana tried to bully Iowa, and it didn’t work. Then, Indiana went to Eugene and bullied Oregon. Hmmm. My power ratings have the Ducks seven points better on a neutral, so this number feels big. Oregon also has some injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Take the points.
PICK: Iowa (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright
Navy @ No. 10 Notre Dame (-27.5, O/U 55.5)
How many stops is Navy going to get? I know it’s easy to get behind a 7-1 military academy catching almost four touchdowns, but wise guys have laid it with the favorite all week. And remember, the Irish beat Navy 42-3 and 51-14 in the last two meetings. Marcus Freeman’s roster is worlds ahead and Notre Dame needs style points to impress the CFP committee.
PICK: Notre Dame (-27.5) to win by more than 27.5 points
SMU (-10.5, O/U 54.5) @ Boston College
This is one of my favorite betting strategies. We took SMU last Saturday as a 10.5-point home underdog against Miami. The Mustangs won outright, and now they’re way too sexy despite being 3-6 ATS this year. They’ve morphed from a 10.5-point home pup to a 10.5-point road favorite. Thanks, but no, thanks. Boston College can easily hang inside the number.
PICK: Boston College (+10.5) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points or win outright
No. 7 BYU @ No. 8 Texas Tech (-11.5, O/U 51.5)
The market blasted Texas Tech off the -10 late this week, as betting limits rose in Las Vegas and around the country. That’s not a good sign for the undefeated Cougars, who are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS. Texas Tech is getting healthier on the defensive side of the ball and its offense is scary. BYU is a good story, but Texas Tech is a much better team. Lay the wood.
PICK: Texas Tech (-11.5) to win by more than 11.5 points
Baltimore Ravens (-4, O/U 49) @ Minnesota Vikings
I can’t wait to watch Brian Flores’ scheme against Lamar Jackson. Flores is one of those defensive coordinators that brings tons of pressure and throws all kinds of confusion a quarterback’s way. And while Jackson has certainly improved as a pocket passer, his decision-making is always entertaining. Minnesota has the offensive weapons to keep this one close.
PICK: Vikings (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points or win outright
New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, O/U 48)
The Patriots have rattled off six straight wins, proof that Drake Maye is the real deal and Mike Vrabel is a tremendous coach. Tampa is off the bye with a healthier offensive line and Baker Mayfield was gushing at practice about the much-needed recovery time. Maye is without his best deep threat (Kayshon Boutte) and Todd Bowles has been historically solid against young QBs.
PICK: Buccaneers (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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