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We’re almost at the end of the road in the NFL regular season, and things are getting especially exciting as teams are fighting for their playoff lives.
Even the squads that are likely to make it in are still jockeying for position in their respective conferences. That’s what makes this time of the year particularly thrilling.
So let’s dive into a few matchups that I believe are worth watching and wagering on for Week 17.
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This huge AFC matchup is going down Saturday night in Los Angeles.
The Texans have won seven in a row, including wins over the Jaguars, Bills, Colts and Chiefs. They are currently a single game back in the AFC South, while sitting in the seventh spot in the AFC playoff standings.
The Chargers are 11-4 after winning six of their last seven, and they are a single game out of the AFC West lead.
Both need to win on Saturday night to attempt to catch up in the division, but furthermore, Houston is looking to secure its playoff spot.
The Chargers have done a fantastic job mitigating injuries to their offensive line. They are down two All Pro-caliber offensive tackles, plus some of their starters aren’t great. Harbaugh, alongside offensive coordinator Greg Roman, has designed a smash-mouth offense that also allows quarterback Justin Herbert to play to his strengths.
Even with his broken left hand, Herbert has been outstanding.
The Chargers’ offense is going to struggle against Houston’s defense on Saturday. The Texans’ defense is second in DVOA, and it has a pair of defensive ends that rush the passer better than any pair in the NFL. Danielle Hunter has 13 sacks, while Will Anderson Jr. has 11.5 sacks.
Against the Chargers’ offensive tackles, this spells trouble, and I think Herbert is going to struggle to move the ball. The Chargers won’t be able to run it either.
Houston’s offense is 21st in DVOA and the Texans also have the same offensive line issues that the Chargers have, which has turned the Texans offense into a hit-or-miss group. Houston is 25th in yards per play and 19th in points per game. You can certainly point to the down numbers by citing the games quarterback C.J. Stroud did not play.
Now back to Los Angeles.
The Chargers’ defense is ninth in DVOA, and it appears to be improving and reaching its peak as the season ends. It allowed 17 to the Cowboys last week after just giving up 10 to the Chiefs. Three weeks ago, it was just 19 points to the Eagles. The Texans won’t score much either in this game.
I will take the Under.
PICK: Under 39.5 points scored by both teams combined
For the third straight week, I’m going to write the same thing: The Chiefs stink, have nothing to play for and will get crushed by their opponent.
As I’m writing this, you can still get the Broncos at -12.5. Denver is off a bad loss, and it needs a win to keep pace in the AFC standings and keep its hold on the AFC West.
The Chiefs lost Patrick Mahomes two weeks ago and then lost Gardner Minshew in the middle of their loss to the Titans. They are turning to someone who should not start an NFL game, and he’s facing one of the best defenses in the NFL.
I’m taking the Broncos to cover and the Chiefs’ team total Under 10.5 points.
PICK: Broncos (-12.5) to win by more than 12.5 points
PICK: Chiefs team total Under 10.5 points scored
This is an awful situational spot for the 49ers.
San Francisco played a Monday Night Football game at Indianapolis and then had to fly back across the country to start preparation for the Bears. Meanwhile, the Bears played on Saturday night.
In short, Chicago gets at least 48 hours of prep time on the 49ers. That’s a huge advantage.
The Bears’ offense is well suited to play against a tired and beat-up 49ers’ defensive line. It leads the NFL in rushing attempts and all the additions to that offensive line have paid off down the stretch. In fact, the offensive line is playing really well.
Ben Johnson is designing a successful offense for Caleb Williams, and with the 49ers’ lack of pass rush, the Bears should be able to score points.
The Bears’ defense is not good and the 49ers should be able to score, so I’m slightly concerned the 49ers could run away with the game on that side of the ball.
However, Chicago will need to continue to force turnovers like it has done all season. Also, the Bears have won six games this season while trailing under two minutes — the most wins in that situation in NFL history. While that doesn’t feel sustainable, it does give a team confidence that, in any situation, it can win a game.
That’s excellent for the underdog. Chicago will continue to compete. I like the Bears to cover.
PICK: Bears (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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