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The NASCAR Cup Series has been unpredictable for several years, and a few of FOX Sports’ motorsports experts expect the 2026 season to be just as wild.
In the most recent edition of “Kevin Harvick’s Happy Hour,” Bob Pockrass, Kevin Harvick and Mamba Smith were all over the map with their predictions for the upcoming season. Each of them had different picks on who’ll be this year’s breakout driver, who’ll have the most wins and who’ll ultimately be the Cup Series champion.
So, with Sunday’s Daytona 500 just days away (Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app), here is how Pockrass, Harvick and Smith expect the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series to play out.
Which team has the most to prove this season?
Pockrass: Richard Childress Racing
With an uncertain future looming around RCR following an underwhelming season, Pockrass believes that Richard Childress Racing is under the most pressure in 2026.
“You talk about Kyle Busch being a free agent and can you get the track right there with a new crew chief and get him feeling like this can be a place where he wants to keep racing at,” Pockrass said. “Where is Austin Dillon in his career? He obviously wants to run better as well. You’ve got a couple of young guys there who want to go Cup racing. Where are they looking for their futures? To me, RCR, they’ve gone through another round of competition changes, which seems like they’ve had a lot over the last two or three years. To me, they’re probably under the most pressure.”
Both Dillon and Busch finished outside the top 12 in the Cup Series standings last year, placing 15th and 21st, respectively.
Harvick: 23XI
Harvick simply believes that 23XI needs to do more in 2026, specifically pointing to Tyler Reddick as a driver that needs to step up.
“We gave them a mulligan last year,” Harvick said. “The bottom line is, Bubba [Wallace] acquired to victory lane, and we noticed enchancment from that automobile final 12 months. Tyler Reddick has to win. I believe he is anticipated and went there to win races and been there lengthy sufficient to win races. I believe the scrutiny of that group if they do not, there is no gimme this 12 months.
“Bubba’s been there lengthy sufficient now that it is time to begin creeping into that a number of wins [per season]. Riley will hopefully run higher after his first 12 months in Cup. However the massive Tyler Reddick state of affairs to me is you are anticipating a number of race wins out of that automobile and that firm and, in my view, Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin count on them to exit and contend for a championship.”
After a three-win season in 2024, Reddick wasn’t in a position to get a win in 2025. He had seven top-five finishes, inserting ninth within the season-long standings.
Smith: RFK/22 Group
Smith has a pair of groups that he believes have to step up in 2026.
“RFK wants to indicate they could be a high workforce once more,” Smith stated. “Clearly, what we simply noticed with Ryan Preece, that was nice. He is their high man. He is constantly their quickest man. If I might say who’s probably the most motivated, the 22 Group is probably the most motivated due to possibly how a lot individuals on social media discuss their championships.
“Watch the 22 Group present you what they’ll do in a distinct format. Watch them come out and be a high workforce so far as common, as a result of it is completely different.”
None of RFK’s racers gained a race final 12 months, with all three ending outdoors the highest 15.
Breakout Driver of the Yr
Pockrass: Chris Buescher
Pockrass believes that Buescher may gain advantage from a possible sturdy season from RFK Racing.
“After we speak to different drivers about, ‘Who do you assume is gonna make the chase this 12 months who didn’t make it final 12 months?,’ a 3rd of them did not even assume twice earlier than they stated Chris Buescher. If RFK is stronger as a gaggle, he will be actually sturdy,” Pockrass stated.
Buescher has taken a step again within the final two seasons following his seventh-place season end in 2023, however had 5 top-five finishes in 2025.
Harvick: Ty Gibbs
Harvick thinks that considered one of Gibbs’ traits makes him sturdy sufficient to interrupt via in 2026.
“Simply because he is been so quick. He is acquired the pace within the race automobile to maintain himself in rivalry, can race effectively, and it is nearly getting over that hump to get to victory lane,” Harvick stated. “I believe they’ve the aptitude, the soundness throughout the workforce now that they assume they’ll have a breakout 12 months.”
The 23-year-old has completed within the high 20 of the Cup standings in all three of his seasons with Joe Gibbs Racing. He had 5 top-five finishes in 2025.
Smith: Chase Elliott
Sure, Elliott is a previous Cup champion, however Smith believes he is as a result of climb again into rivalry after slipping to outdoors the highest 5 in recent times.
“I am simply considering that they began figuring it out with the automobile,” Smith stated. “That was simply the largest factor. He wasn’t very comfy driving this automobile. Now, they figured it out. They went via all their gremlins. And their system is extra to their liking. They most likely really feel like, ‘It’s again in our wheelhouse.” They’re most likely going to have an excellent 12 months.”
Elliott completed eighth within the standings final 12 months, choosing up two wins.
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Who has probably the most wins this season
Pockrass: Kyle Larson
Pockrass thinks we see one other sturdy 12 months out of the No. 5 automobile in 2026 following his second Cup Collection win final 12 months.
“I do not see any cause why they’ll get any worse,” Pockrass stated.
Harvick: Denny Hamlin
Harvick believes that some exterior elements might come into play and result in Hamlin having a robust 12 months in 2026 following his second-place end in 2025.
“I might undoubtedly make the argument for Larson, however there’s nonetheless lots of motivation for Denny Hamlin,” Harvick stated. “I simply know he is talked about his shoulder being harm, being via so many issues along with his household, dropping the championship and his dad’s passing and every little thing. I nonetheless consider there’s some fireplace in there to inspire him and as a driver, yearly you are searching for one thing to inspire you whenever you’ve performed it that lengthy. I hope that performs out, as a result of I believe he deserves it. I believe sentiment for Denny Hamlin this 12 months goes to be completely different. It began to shift final 12 months. I consider that fan sentiment goes to be fairly constructive this 12 months as he rolls into the race monitor.”
Smith: Christopher Bell
Just like Harvick with Hamlin, Smith thinks that motivation will play a job in Bell getting probably the most wins in 2026 after his midseason struggles final 12 months.
“I nearly went along with his different teammate, Chase Briscoe, however Christopher Bell is extremely, extremely motivated to win a championship,” Smith stated. “That group is so quick. There’s actually not any holes in his sport. So, I believe there’s an excellent likelihood he ends the 12 months with probably the most wins.”
Who would be the Cup Champion?
Pockrass: Ryan Blaney
Pockrass did not supply a proof for his decide, however Blaney has constantly been among the many Cup Collection’ high drivers. His sixth-place end final 12 months got here two years after his 2023 title and a 12 months after his 2024 second-place end.
Harvick: William Byron
Harvick thinks it is time for Byron to recover from the hump following three top-five finishes.
“It is simply that maturity and the issues that go along with a workforce. I believe he and Rudy have an awesome relationship,” Harvick stated. “They’ve labored via lots of onerous moments collectively, and that is what it takes to be the champ.”
Smith: Christopher Bell
If Bell goes to get probably the most wins, why cannot he win the Cup Championship? That is what Smith thinks of Bell getting into 2026 as he had his fourth straight top-five end in 2025.
“Final 12 months, I went with William Byron, and I nonetheless really feel like the hearth is there. However this 12 months, I am going with Christopher Bell. There’s one thing about it with him, and I believe it is his time.”
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