There has been well over a billion dollars in contracts handed out in the first wave of NFL free agency. Not all of it was spent wisely.
It’ll be months or even years, of course, before we know the full damage caused by some of the deals in this year’s free-agent frenzy. But at first glance, here are five that look like the riskiest bets so far.
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Four years, $120 million ($80 million guaranteed)
The Philadelphia Eagles loved the way he fit in their defense after they acquired him at the trading deadline last year, and they wanted to keep him. But not at $30 million per year. Pass-rushers always come at a premium price in free agency, and there’s still a gap between him and the top six, who get $35-45 million per season. But Phillips does have injury issues in his past (Achilles, knee) and he’s coming off a five-sack season. In fact, his sack numbers have been on a steady decline since the 8.5 he posted as a rookie in 2021. He’s still young (he’ll be 27 in May), but this money shows an expectation of double-digit sacks and a player who will be one of the most dangerous edge rushers in the league. Phillips is good, but he’s never proven to be that good.
Jalean Phillips is now getting paid like a star. He just hasn’t ever produced at that level. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Two years, $88 million ($50 million guaranteed)
Jones was a revelation last season for the Colts and the way he played through the first 10 games in particular, he showed he’s worthy of a huge investment. But then, in Week 14, he tore his Achilles, and now he’s an enormous risk. He’ll be 29 in May and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be ready for the start of training camp or even the first week of the season. Even worse, when he tore his ACL with the Giants in 2023, he was terrible the next season — so bad the Giants eventually released him. That doesn’t bode well for his recovery this time. And thanks to his Achilles, knee and neck, he hasn’t played a full season since 2022. The Colts first gave Jones the transition tag at $37.8 million, which was risky enough. Why did they then needlessly up the ante considering no one was going to offer a broken-down, mediocre QB more than that?
Four years, $116 million ($80 million guaranteed)
There is no doubt that Pierce is a talented, dangerous, stretch-the-field weapon who will make the Colts and their quarterback better next season. His average of 21.8 yards per catch the past two seasons proves that. But at $29 million per year, he better do more than that. He’s now the ninth-highest-paid receiver in the league, which puts him in the stratosphere of guys like A.J. Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown. If you’re going to be paid like them, you need to perform like them, and Pierce never has. His best season was last season when he had 47 catches for 1,003 yards and six touchdowns. The Colts could have found that kind of production for a lot less money. To justify this deal, he needs to push 100 receptions and 1,300 yards. Clearly, the Colts believe Pierce is capable of that. They even traded away Michael Pittman Jr. to clear the field for him. But the pressure is now on Pierce because there’s no pedigree to suggest he’s capable of doing it. It’s just hope.
Alec Pierce has been very good. The Colts are now paying him to be great. Can he live up to his new contract? (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Four years, $100 million ($68 million guaranteed)
Oweh has been a good pass-rusher for most of his career, but he earned this payday with a legendary contract year. He had no sacks in his first five games last season before the Baltimore Ravens traded him to the Chargers. Then he had 7.5 over the final 12 games of the regular season before adding a three-sack game in the playoffs. That run (10.5 sacks in 13 games) was quite an anomaly, too, considering his career high was 10 sacks in 17 games in 2024, and he’s averaged only six sacks per season overall. That’s good, but now he’s the 13th-highest-paid edge rusher, and on a team desperate for pass-rushing help. The Commanders are clearly counting on double-digit sacks from him. He’s 27, and maybe he’s ascending, but it seems like the Commanders mostly bought into his recent film.
Odafe Oweh parlayed a really nice half-season stint with the Chargers into a big payday with the Commanders. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
Three years, $42 million ($21 million guaranteed)
The 26-year-old is a tremendous guard with the potential to be one of the NFL’s best — when he’s healthy. But that’s the problem. When is he healthy? He rarely has been during his NFL career. He missed 10 games with a torn triceps in 2022, 12 games with a torn Achilles in 2023, and all of last year with a torn triceps in his other arm. He was terrific for the Jets as a rookie (2021) and again in 2024, showing all the potential the Pats are clearly banking on. But at this point, it’s more likely that he spends significant time on the sidelines for New England. The money isn’t crazy, but $14 million per year still puts him 17th among guards. It’s a good deal if he stays on the field, but history suggests there really isn’t a good chance of that happening.
