It’s true that NFL teams can’t win a championship in March. But sometimes a smart spending spree can at least lead to a better season — and the opposite is true, too.
Which teams spent wisely in free agency and which teams didn’t might not be clear until the games actually start in September. However, the early reviews were enough to get us a new No. 1 in my updated power rankings. Another team also saw a good surge in the poll after adding a veteran quarterback.
Let’s take a closer look at my updated power rankings following the first week of free agency.
Super Bowl odds: +30000
They brought in Gardner Minshew to compete at quarterback with Jacoby Brissett, running back Tyler Allgeier to split time in their backfield and Kendrick Bourne as a third receiver. Yeah, they’re all about that 2027 NFL Draft.
Super Bowl odds: +15000
They gutted their offensive line, as expected, but rebuilding with guard Zion Johnson, offensive tackle Tytus Howard and center Elgton Jenkins is questionable, to say the least. Another receiver could’ve helped their young quarterbacks, too.
Super Bowl odds: +20000
Their short-term flier on quarterback Malik Willis was necessary, because the rest of their offseason was one big fire sale. They have some pieces to remain somewhat competitive, but this is the start of a rebuild that could take a few years.
Super Bowl odds: +20000
Geno Smith, the return, is a bad idea at quarterback, but they didn’t have a lot of good options. They upgraded their defense, though, with solid veterans like linebacker Demario Davis, edge rusher Joseph Ossai and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. And that’s important considering their offense is still going to stink.
Super Bowl odds: +15000
They overpaid for center Tyler Linderbaum, but he may be worth it to them and their soon-to-be rookie QB, Fernando Mendoza. They upgraded their defense too, and added an underrated wide receiver in Jalen Nailor. And getting Maxx Crosby back is a nice consolation prize for a trade that went wrong.
Super Bowl odds: +8000
They couldn’t afford any big swings, but they made a couple of moderate ones with guard David Edwards and running back Travis Etienne, who could emerge as a big upgrade over the declining Alvin Kamara.
Super Bowl odds: +10000
The drunken sailors of this free agent market, their obsession with ex-Giants and Jets was weird (wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, cornerback Cor’Dale Flott, tight end Daniel Bellinger, defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers). All are solid players and will improve the team, though, if you can ignore the prices.
Super Bowl odds: +6500
They went all in on quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce, but it probably cost them wide receiver Michael Pittman, right tackle Braden Smith, and a handful of defensive players. And what if Jones isn’t ready or the same player? Their whole offseason was a very risky bet.
Super Bowl odds: +3000
Jerry Jones promised to spend in free agency this time and … what, you believed him? He did keep wide receiver George Pickens. And maybe the trade for edge rusher Rashan Gary pays off. But their awful defense sure looks about the same.
Super Bowl odds: +4500
It’ll be hard for them to get over the loss of wide receiver Mike Evans, one of the best and most consistent to ever do it. They made a nice pickup in linebacker Alex Anzalone, but the losses of Evans, running back Rachaad White and cornerback Jamel Dean sting.
Super Bowl odds: +8000
They massively overpaid for edge rusher Jaelen Phillips, but he and linebacker Devin Lloyd will still help their defense. Losing center Cade Mays and running back Rico Dowdle, though, isn’t good news for a still-growing quarterback.
Super Bowl odds: +7000
They upgraded a bit at linebacker (Tremaine Edmunds over Bobby Okereke) and got a bigger weapon for their slot (tight end Isaiah Likely over wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson). Mostly, though, they’re still counting on John Harbaugh getting the most out of what they already have.
Super Bowl odds: +4500
They made some really nice upgrades with running back Rico Dowdle, wide receiver Michael Pittman and cornerback Jamel Dean. But it’s all about Aaron Rodgers here. If he returns, move them up a few spots. If he doesn’t, they have no quarterback and will sink like a rock.
Aaron Rodgers remains unsigned, leaving the Steelers’ quarterback situation in question. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images)
Super Bowl odds: +6500
All that cap space and they went for quantity over quality. They did make some nice additions on both sides — edge rushers Odafe Oweh and K’Lavon Chaisson, cornerback Amik Robertson, linebacker Leo Chenal, tight end Chig Okonkwo and running back Rachaad White. But are any of them really difference-makers?
Super Bowl odds: +11000
Laugh about Tua Tagovaiola if you want, but he’s an upgrade at QB (at a minimum salary) for a team with some strong offensive weapons (if he’s healthy, of course). They could’ve done better than adding wide receiver Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus, though.
Super Bowl odds: +4500
Their offseason comes down to one thing: Does Kyler Murray at QB make them better? The answer should be yes, and that’s big for a team that went 9-8 and won their last five despite some pretty bad QB play.
Super Bowl odds: +3000
Adding safety Bryan Cook would be a huge help to their defense, if only it didn’t come at the same time they lose Trey Hendrickson. Signing edge rusher Boye Mafe is worth a shot, but he’s a poor man’s replacement.
Super Bowl odds: +1700
Call their offseason “Unfinished business.” Their defense looks worse, losing linebacker Alex Anzalone and cornerback Amik Robertson. They downgraded at running backs, trading David Montgomery and signing Isaiah Pacheco. Their O-line rebuilding is still incomplete. They need some home runs on Draft Day.
Super Bowl odds: +1400
They got better on defense with defensive tackle Javon Hargrove and cornerback Benjamin St-Juste. They are counting on a lot of internal options, though, to replace their loss of top receiver Romeo Doubs and several players from their offensive line.
Super Bowl odds: +1900
Getting 28-year-old running back David Montgomery gives them an interesting 1-2 punch in their backfield. But will he have room to run? Signing right tackle Braden Smith isn’t nearly enough to fix that offensive line.
Super Bowl odds: +1500
The Chargers’ No. 1 offseason mission was clear: Find a better way to protect QB Justin Herbert. So, armed with plenty of cap space, they signed … center Tyler Biadasz and guard Cole Strange? Did they miss the memo?
Super Bowl odds: +1500
If he stays healthy — a big “if” at his age — wide receiver Mike Evans could be a huge difference-maker for an offense that was way too dependent on running back Christian McCaffrey last season. And defensive tackle Owa Odighizua, acquired from the Cowboys, could give their pass rush the juice it lacked, too.
Super Bowl odds: +1400
The twin departures of cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Warren will sting, but wait until the world sees what that offense can do with a reliable running back like Kenneth Walker. Feels like we’ve been waiting to see that for years.
Super Bowl odds: +2500
So much for all the good feelings the new regime built in one year in Jacksonville. They let their best rusher (Travis Etienne) and a Pro Bowl linebacker (Devin Lloyd) leave and it’s not clear how they’re going to replace them. Here’s a hint: It won’t be easy.
Super Bowl odds: +2500
They lost a long list of players, but found mostly good replacements, like safety Cobe Bryant, linebacker Devin Bush and center Garrett Bradbury. The defense needed more, though, especially at edge rusher.
Super Bowl odds: +1000
They salvaged things after pivoting to Trey Hendrickson once they backed out of the Maxx Crosby deal. Adding safety Jaylinn Hawkins was big, too. But they lost a lot of people, including center Tyler Linderbaum. That one will hurt.
Super Bowl odds: +1600
An unusually quiet offseason for Howie Roseman so far. They tried to make a big splash at pass rusher, and may have tried to trade wide receiver A.J. Brown. But mostly they watched as a few important defensive players (safety Reed Blankenship, linebacker Nakobe Dean, edge rusher Jaelen Phillips) walked out the door.
Super Bowl odds: +1900
They signed wide receiver Romeo Doubs, safety Kevin Byard and defensive lineman Dre’Mont Jones, who are all upgrades over guys they let go. Guard Alijah Vera-Tucker could boost their line if he stays healthy. But their biggest issue remains a much harder schedule in 2026.
Super Bowl odds: +1000
They finally went out and got Josh Allen a possible No. 1 receiver, trading for D.J. Moore, which could make their offense unstoppable. Signing edge rusher Bradley Chubb might be a steal, too, as long as he stays healthy. All the ingredients are in place for a Super Bowl run.
Super Bowl odds: +1000
They are probably deep enough to withstand the losses of cornerback Riq Woolen, safety Coby Bryant and edge rusher Boye Mafe. But losing running back Kenneth Walker is going to hurt. It won’t be easy to replace the Super Bowl MVP.
Super Bowl odds: +2000
They weren’t expecting to do much in free agency, and they didn’t disappoint. Losing defensive tackle John Franklin-Myers’ seven sacks isn’t great, but they should still have plenty of pass rush without him.
Super Bowl odds: +800
They are loaded for a run and made sure of it by plugging their most gaping hole — their secondary. They acquired cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson — two huge additions considering their pass coverage kept them out of the Super Bowl last season.
