2025-26 March Insanity Odds: Again Underdogs TCU, South Florida in First Spherical

Apologies to the holiday season, but this is the most wonderful time of the year.

Everyone has a perfect bracket, with an excuse to miss work on Thursday all lined up. After all, it’s very hard to prove that you don’t have a stomach bug or a sore throat — or both.

By the time noon Thursday rolls around, we will be down to 64 teams and the road to the Final Four will be underway. 

To many, this weekend is the best four-day stretch in the sports calendar, so let’s look for some best bets for Thursday’s slate to try and enjoy it even more.

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No. 9 TCU vs. No. 8 Ohio State

The ninth-seeded Horned Frogs and the eighth-seeded Buckeyes kick things off Thursday — the REAL start of the Tournament. Ohio State is a slight favorite. According to some analysts, deep into the season, the Buckeyes were on the outside of the Tournament bubble. But a late surge got them all the way up to the 8-line. They will have the best player on the floor in sensational guard Bruce Thornton, but TCU has a very good, athletic defense that is well-equipped to contain Thornton. I’ll take the better defense, as well as the 2.5 points. 

PICK: TCU (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright

No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 Louisville

A sky-high total of 164.5 tells you what’s expected here and that’s a fast-paced game with plenty of offense from each team. I like 11th-seeded South Florida here, as sixth-seeded Louisville has an elite freshman guard in projected lottery pick Mikel Brown, but he is out for at least the opener of this Tournament. South Florida is an elite offensive rebounding team, and has a slew of talented guards that should keep this game close throughout. This is a trendy upset pick so far this week, and I can certainly understand why. I like getting the points.

PICK: USF (+4.5) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points or win outright

No. 14 Penn vs. No. 3 Illinois 

Penn, a 14-seed, won an incredible Ivy League title game on Sunday. The Quakers finished off an improbable late comeback in the final seconds to beat Yale in overtime, capping veteran head coach Fran McCaffrey’s first season with the school. Penn can shoot the 3 and are just shy of 39% on the season. However, it’s the other side of the ball that I fear the worst for the 24.5-point underdogs. Penn’s suspect defense will have trouble getting many stops, and 3-seed Illinois is capable of scoring 100 if on its game.

PICK: Illinois team total Over 87.5 points scored

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 High Point 

Another trendy ‘dog is 12-seed High Point — but unlike South Florida, I’m not necessarily buying in. High Point, like Penn, is an underdog that can score well enough but has concerns defensively. The 27-4 overall record is gaudy, but a closer look at the level of competition creates doubt that this will be as close of a game as some think. I expect the No. 5-seeded Badgers to win fairly comfortably.

PICK: Wisconsin (-10.5) to win by more than 10.5 points