Welcome to March Madness — a nickname earned through decades of chaos, where little-known programs take down the sport’s biggest brands. We call those bracket-busting teams “Cinderellas.”
They’re fun to root for, but picking the right ones? That’s where things get tricky.
Even with a job that revolves around studying these teams, predicting what happens in a single-elimination tournament is never easy. So while I can’t promise perfection, I can give you a head start.
2026 NCAA TOURNAMENT GAMBLING GUIDE
Here are five Cinderella candidates I believe have the best chance to win a game — or maybe even make a run in this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
How are we defining a Cinderella Team? A team seeded No. 9 or lower that also comes from outside the five power conferences: ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East.
[MEN’S BRACKET: NCAA Tournament Bracket]
5. Santa Clara, WCC, 26-8 (15-13)
The Broncos proved how harmful they are often with a win over a robust Saint Mary’s crew within the WCC semifinals. Head coach Herb Sendek has been across the block and is aware of what it takes to win in March — and he’s acquired the expertise to do it.
Santa Clara leans closely on the 3-point shot, with practically 45% of its makes an attempt coming from past the arc. When these photographs don’t fall, they crash the glass laborious, rating among the many high 25 groups within the nation in offensive rebounding proportion.
Participant to observe: Sophomore guard Christian Hammond averages 16 factors per sport, shoots 40% from deep, and poured in 24 factors towards Gonzaga within the WCC title sport.
4. Utah State, Mountain West, 28-6 (15-5)
Head coach Jerrod Calhoun (no relation to UConn legend Jim Calhoun) is in his second season in Logan, and this group has taken a transparent step ahead from final 12 months’s crew that fell to UCLA within the first spherical as a 10-seed.
The Aggies are disruptive on protection, rating sixteenth nationally in pressured turnovers, however their actual power is on the offensive finish, the place they sit inside the highest 30 in effectivity, based on KenPom.
Participant(s) to observe: Mason Falslev and MJ Collins, who mix to common 34 factors per sport.
3. Saint Louis, A-10, 28-5 (15-3)
On Feb. 13, the Billikens have been 24-1 and ranked within the high 25. They’ve gone simply 4-4 since and now discover themselves in Cinderella territory.
St. Louis performs quick, shoots a blistering 40.5% from 3-point vary, and options unimaginable stability, with seven gamers averaging 9 factors or extra.
The Billikens’ résumé is legit too, with wins over Santa Clara and a regular-season sweep of VCU. The query now’s, can they take down one of many heavyweights?
Participant to observe: The headliner is Robbie Avila, a 6-foot-10, goggle-wearing heart who leads the crew in each factors and assists and goes by the nickname “Cream Abdul Jabar.” He won’t have the signature hook shot, however he’s knocked down 62 3-pointers this season.
2. South Florida, American, 25-8 (15-3)
Led by first-year head coach Bryan Hodgson, the Bulls enter the NCAA Event on an 11-game profitable streak with a 25–8 document. They’ve constructed their id on protection, rating fortieth nationally in effectivity based on KenPom. Offensively, they push the tempo and relentlessly assault the offensive glass.
Participant(s) to Watch: Wes Enis has emerged as a go-to scorer, placing up 19 or extra factors in seven of the crew’s last eight video games. However the coronary heart and soul of this group is 6-foot-10 senior Izaiyah Nelson, the American Athletic Convention Participant of the Yr, who practically averages a double-double (15.7 factors, 9.6 rebounds).
He has all of the makings of an NCAA Event darling.
[MEN’S BRACKET: Expert Predictions and Analysis]
1. Akron, MAC, 29-5 (17-1)
The Zips are 0-7 all-time within the NCAA Event, however I’ve acquired them profitable a few video games. It’s laborious to not love their offensive firepower, particularly with a 10-game profitable streak heading into March.
Their path hasn’t been excellent — they cut up with Miami (OH), dropping a three-point sport on the street — however they bounced again to win the MAC Event, they usually’re taking part in their greatest basketball on the proper time.
Akron is elite offensively, rating within the high 15 nationally in each 3-point proportion (38.5%) and 2-point proportion (59.1%). They’ll want each little bit of that effectivity towards Texas Tech.
Participant(s) to observe: The backcourt duo of Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott has mixed for 146 made threes this season.
At this level, the components is easy: let it rip.
