National opinion polls conducted just before the Western Australian Secret Harbour by-election indicate a rise in support for right-wing parties. A Newspoll survey showed a combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition increasing by two points to 49%, while a Redbridge poll placed the right-wing bloc at 50%, a slight decrease from a previous outlier result.
Newspoll Findings Reveal Shifting Voter Preferences
The federal Newspoll, conducted between August 24-28 with 1,243 respondents, revealed significant movement in primary vote percentages. One Nation saw its support climb to 30%, a one-point increase from the previous survey three weeks prior. Labor’s primary vote remained steady at 29%, while the Coalition gained one point to reach 19%. The Greens experienced a one-point decline to 13%, and ‘all Others’ dropped by one point to 9%.
While a two-party preferred estimate was not published, the gains for the right-wing parties suggest a potential decrease in Labor’s two-party vote when pitted against One Nation. This shift in voter sentiment comes at a critical time, with the Secret Harbour by-election in Western Australia, where One Nation secured a notable victory over Labor, occurring shortly after these polls were finalized.
Leader Approval Ratings and Public Perception
Regarding leader approval, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating saw a marginal one-point increase to -21. He has consistently maintained net approval ratings at or below -15 since late February, indicating persistent dissatisfaction among a significant portion of the electorate. The data shows 59% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with Albanese’s performance, compared to 38% who were satisfied.
In contrast, Angus Taylor’s net approval rating declined by five points to -17, with 50% dissatisfied and 33% satisfied. Pauline Hanson, leader of One Nation, experienced an improvement in her net approval, rising two points to -1. Her dissatisfaction rating stood at 48%, with 47% expressing satisfaction.
Preferred Prime Minister and Housing Concerns
In the standard ‘better PM’ question, Albanese held a lead over Taylor, securing 44% of the vote compared to Taylor’s 35% (a slight shift from the previous 44-37 split). When presented with a three-way forced choice between Albanese, Hanson, and Taylor, Albanese maintained 46% support, Hanson garnered 31%, and Taylor received 23%, with all figures remaining steady.
Following preferences from Taylor’s supporters in this three-way choice, Albanese led Hanson by an unchanged margin of 56% to 44%. The polls also touched upon public sentiment regarding housing prices. In Newspoll’s survey on local housing prices, 13% desired a 15% increase within two years, 17% favored a 5% rise, and 32% wanted prices to remain stable. Conversely, 13% wished for a 5% decrease, and 19% anticipated a 15% drop. Overall, 32% favored a decrease in local house prices, while 30% favored an increase.
This contrasts with a mid-August Resolve poll, which found a broader public consensus (60%-10%) supporting a decrease in house prices generally. The distinction in question framing—local area versus general housing market—may account for the differing results.
Redbridge Poll Offers Further Insights into Political Landscape
A separate national poll conducted by Redbridge and Accent Research for The Financial Review, surveying 1,006 respondents from August 24-28, provided additional data points. This poll indicated Labor’s primary vote holding steady at 29%. One Nation’s support saw a three-point decrease to 28%, while the Coalition remained stable at 22%. The Greens saw a two-point increase to 12%, and ‘all Others’ rose by one point to 9%.
Analysis of respondent preferences in the Redbridge poll showed Labor leading One Nation 52% to 48%, a one-point gain for One Nation. The Coalition held a 52%-48% lead over Labor, unchanged from the previous poll. However, when applying 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52% to 48%, representing a two-point gain for Labor.
The report suggests that a higher proportion of Coalition and One Nation preferences flowing to the other right-wing party might explain why respondent preference figures remained unchanged or worsened for Labor, despite the combined right-wing vote decreasing by three points in this poll.
Preferred Prime Minister in Redbridge Poll
In the Redbridge poll’s three-way preferred Prime Minister question, Albanese garnered 31% (down one point), Hanson secured 24% (steady), and Taylor received 15% (steady). These figures further illustrate the complex dynamics of voter support and leader perception across different polling methodologies.
Upcoming NT By-Election in Mulka
Looking ahead, a by-election is scheduled for September 12 in the Northern Territory’s local seat of Mulka. This election follows the resignation of independent member Yingiya Mark Guyula. The contest features only two candidates: Labor’s Yiwarr McGrath and independent Andrew Blamey. Notably, the governing Country Liberal Party (CLP) is not participating in this election.
The Mulka electorate has a significant Indigenous population, with over 60% of residents identifying as Indigenous. At the 2024 NT election, Guyula won decisively against the CLP with a 75.2% to 24.8% margin, in an election where Labor did not field a candidate. In the 2020 NT election, Guyula defeated Labor by a margin of 55.1% to 44.9%.
Conclusion: A Snapshot of Shifting Political Tides
The recent national polling data, released just prior to the Secret Harbour by-election, indicates a strengthening of support for right-wing parties, particularly One Nation and the Coalition. While Labor’s primary vote remains relatively stable, shifts in preferences and leader approval ratings suggest a dynamic and evolving political landscape. The upcoming Mulka by-election in the Northern Territory, with its unique demographic and electoral history, will provide further insights into regional political sentiment.
