2025 MLB House Run Chief Odds: Can Ohtani, Schwarber Catch Raleigh?

Everyone digs the long ball.

“Home runs” is one of those statistics that seems to hold more weight than others. 

In two of the last three years, Aaron Judge has led the league in dingers. The year he didn’t lead Major League Baseball in homers, he missed nearly 60 games.

Let’s take a look at the odds on who is favored to lead the major leagues in home runs in 2025 at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Aug. 12.

Most regular-season home runs

Cal Raleigh: -200 (bet $10 to win $15 total)
Shohei Ohtani: +320 (bet $10 to win $42 total)
Kyle Schwarber: +400 (bet $10 to win $50 total)
Aaron Judge: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Eugenio Suarez: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)

Things are getting tense at the top. 

Cal Raleigh — who was +2500 to lead baseball in home runs on May 16 — has 45 homers, followed by Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber at 42.

Aaron Judge and Eugenio Suarez have 37.

Ohtani has homered in four of the Dodgers’ last five games, and Schwarber has two home runs in the Phillies’ last four outings. 

Raleigh has homered in the Mariners’ last three games. 

Cal Raleigh has already passed his career-high for home runs in a season, which was previously 34. 

Judge and Ohtani had quite the race last season, with the Yankees superstar hitting 58 and the Dodgers superstar finishing with 54 (he also added in 59 stolen bases).

Raleigh, who won the 2025 Home Run Derby, hit just 34 last season and 30 the year before.

In 2022, Judge hit a career-high and American League record 62 home runs, and after last season, he has three seasons tallying over 50 home runs in a single season (2017, 2022, 2024).

No active player outside of Judge has hit 60 or more home runs in a season, and no player in the NL has hit 60 or more since Barry Bonds mashed 73 in 2001. 

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