The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) immediately is down by -0.30%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.12%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.67%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are down -0.35%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.71%.
Inventory indexes immediately prolonged Tuesday’s losses, with the S&P 500 falling to a 1-week low and the Nasdaq 100 dropping to a 2-week low. The weak spot within the Magnificent Seven know-how corporations and losses in chip makers are weighing on the general market. Additionally, disappointing company information is adverse for shares, with Goal down greater than 8% after forecasting a bigger-than-expected decline in full-year gross sales. Estee Lauder is down greater than -3% after forecasting weaker-than-expected 2026 EPS.
US MBA mortgage purposes fell -1.4% within the week ended August 15, with the acquisition mortgage sub-index up +0.1% and the refinancing sub-index down -3.1%. The typical 30-year mounted price mortgage rose +1 bp to six.68% from 6.67% within the prior week.
Diplomatic talks over the struggle in Ukraine proceed to make headway. President Trump is pushing for a summit between Presidents Putin and Zelenskiy quickly, and European leaders are discussing a plan to ship British and French troops to Ukraine as a part of a peace settlement. The result of the talks might have macroeconomic implications concerning tariffs and oil costs, and will, in fact, have vital penalties for European safety.
The main target of the markets this week might be on any new tariff information and indicators of progress towards a Ukraine peace deal. On Wednesday, the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC assembly might be launched. On Thursday, weekly preliminary unemployment claims are anticipated to climb by +1,000 to 225,000, and the Aug Philadelphia Fed enterprise outlook survey is anticipated to fall to six.7 from 15.9 in July. Additionally, the Aug S&P manufacturing PMI is anticipated to stay unchanged at 49.8. As well as, Jul present house gross sales are anticipated to fall -0.3% m/m to three.92 million. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell speaks on the financial outlook on the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium at Jackson Gap, Wyoming.
Relating to tariffs, President Trump widened metal and aluminum tariffs to incorporate greater than 400 client objects that comprise the metals, akin to bikes, auto components, furnishings parts, and tableware. The change went into impact on Monday and didn’t exclude items already in transit. Final Friday, Mr. Trump mentioned, “I’ll be setting tariffs subsequent week and the week after on metal and on, I’d say chips – chips and semiconductors, we’ll be setting someday subsequent week, week after.” Mr. Trump final week mentioned he deliberate a 100% tariff on semiconductors however would exempt corporations that transfer chip manufacturing to the US. Mr. Trump additionally talked about 200% or 300% tariffs on chips.
In different current tariff information, Mr. Trump final Tuesday prolonged the tariff truce with China for one more 90 days till November. On August 6, Mr. Trump introduced that he’ll double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the present 25% tariff, because of India’s purchases of Russian oil. On August 5, Mr. Trump mentioned that US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports could be introduced “throughout the subsequent week or so.” In accordance with Bloomberg Economics, the common US tariff will rise to fifteen.2% if charges are carried out as introduced, up from 13.3% earlier, and considerably greater than the two.3% in 2024 earlier than the tariffs had been introduced.
Federal funds futures costs are discounting the probabilities for a -25 bp price minimize at 84% on the September 16-17 FOMC assembly, down from 93% final Thursday. The markets are discounting the probabilities at 55% for a second -25 bp price minimize on the following assembly on October 28-29.
Earnings studies point out that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on monitor to rise +9.1% y/y, a lot better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and essentially the most in 4 years, in response to Bloomberg Intelligence. With over 92% of S&P 500 corporations having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of corporations exceeded revenue estimates.
Abroad inventory markets immediately are blended. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.09%. China’s Shanghai Composite climbed to a brand new 10-year excessive and closed up +1.04%. Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 closed down -1.51%.
Curiosity Charges
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) immediately are up +2 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -0.6 bp to 4.300%. Sep T-notes are modestly greater immediately, supported by weak spot in fairness markets. Additionally, power in European authorities bonds is offering carryover help to T-notes.
Provide pressures are limiting features in T-notes because the Treasury will public sale $16 billion of 20-year T-bonds later immediately. Additionally, issues that final week’s bearish US July CPI and PPI studies might hold the Fed from slicing rates of interest at subsequent month’s FOMC assembly are weighing on T-notes.
European authorities bond yields immediately are shifting decrease. The ten-year German bund yield is down -1.7 bp to 2.734%. The ten-year UK gilt yield is down -4.4 bp to 4.696%.
ECB President Lagarde mentioned the Eurozone economic system is more likely to see slower development this quarter, with questions over international commerce remaining regardless of current commerce offers with the US lowering uncertainty.
UK Jul CPI rose +3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.7% y/y and the quickest tempo of improve in 1.5 years. Jul core CPI additionally rose +3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.7% y/y.
Swaps are discounting the probabilities at 7% for a -25 bp price minimize by the ECB on the September 11 coverage assembly.
US Inventory Movers
The Magnificent Seven shares are underneath stress immediately, weighing on the broader market. Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Meta Platforms (META) are down greater than -2%. Additionally, Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (AAPL) are down greater than -1%. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.05%.
Weak spot in chip shares is a drag on the general market. Intel (INTC) is down greater than -6% to guide losers within the Nasdaq 100. Additionally, Micron Know-how (MU) is down greater than -3%, and Superior Micro Units (AMD) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) are down greater than -2%. As well as, Broadcom (AVGO), Utilized Supplies (AMAT), and Marvell Know-how (MRVL) are down greater than -1%.
James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX) is down greater than -33% after reporting its Q2 working revenue sank -29% y/y and mentioned tough financial circumstances proceed to weigh on homebuyers after recording the slowest spring season in additional than twelve years.
La-Z-Boy (LZB) is down greater than -13% after reporting Q1 comparable gross sales fell -4% y/y versus -3% y/y, and forecast Q2 gross sales of $510 million-$530 million, the midpoint beneath the consensus of $528.5 million.
Goal (TGT) is down greater than -8% to guide losers within the S&P 500 after forecasting a full-year gross sales decline of low-single digit share in comparison with the consensus of a -1.71% decline.
Estee Lauder (EL) is down greater than -3% after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.90-$2.10, weaker than the consensus of $2.16.
Carvana (CVNA) and Avis Funds Group (CAR) are down greater than -4%, and CarMax (KMX) is down greater than -1% after CNBC reported that Hertz International Holdings will begin promoting pre-owned vehicles on Amazon Autos.
TJX Cos (TJX) is up greater than +5% to guide gainers within the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 comparable gross sales rose +4%, stronger than the consensus of +3.09%, and boosting its 2026 comparable gross sales forecast to +3% from a earlier estimate of +2% to three%, higher than the consensus of +2.87%.
Hertz International Holdings (HTZ) is up greater than +5% after CNBC reported the corporate will begin promoting pre-owned vehicles on Amazon Autos.
Dayforce (DAY) is up greater than +3% on studies that the corporate is in superior talks with Thoma Bravo to be acquired for $70 a share.
Analog Units (ADI) is up greater than +2% to guide gainers within the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q3 income of $2.88 billion, higher than the consensus of $2.76 billion.
Nubank (NU) is up greater than +2% after Citigroup double upgraded the inventory to purchase from promote with a worth goal of $18.
McCormick & Co. (MKC) is up greater than +2% after JPMorgan Chase double upgraded the inventory to obese from underweight with a worth goal of $83.
Lowe’s (LOW) is up greater than +1% after buying Basis Constructing Supplies for about $8.8 billion because it expands past house enchancment provides.
Earnings Studies(8/20/2025)
Analog Units Inc (ADI), Coty Inc (COTY), Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The (EL), Lowe’s Cos Inc (LOW), Nordson Corp (NDSN), Goal Corp (TGT), TJX Cos Inc/The (TJX).
On the date of publication, Wealthy Asplund didn’t have (both straight or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All info and knowledge on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially printed on Barchart.com
