Sometimes it happens to a team, like in 2003 when the Patriots lost 31-0 to the Bills on Opening Day, then finished the season 14-2 and won a Super Bowl anyway. Sometimes it happens to an individual, like when Browning Nagle threw for 366 yards in the Jets’ 1992 season opener, only to not throw for more than 200 in any game the rest of the season. (That was Nagle’s first career start, by the way, and also the last time he topped 200 yards.)
Yeah, those are old examples. And they’re extreme. But you get the point. Week 1 can bring a lot of fool’s gold. It can also push fan bases to the edge of a cliff. The key is to step back and look at the big picture. Don’t ride the emotional waves of the moment. Because not everything is at it seems from opening weekend.
With that, here are my latest NFL Power Rankings.
*Super Bowl LX odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Super Bowl odds: +750
I know they didn’t look great against the Cowboys. It was a weird game, losing DT Jalen Carter early and then the weather delay. I’m willing to give them a pass for one week only. They’re still the same team they were a week ago. And to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man. So for now, the top spot still belongs to them.
Super Bowl odds: +500
The championship window won’t be open forever for the Bills, and Josh Allen showed Sunday night he won’t let it slam shut. That wild comeback against the Ravens saved them from a depressing opening and might have established them as the team to beat in the AFC.
Super Bowl odds: +600
They were almost in consideration for the top spot, but as great a coach as John Harbaugh is, he’s prone to some head-scratching late-game management. The Ravens are obviously a great team. But they might have been beaten by a better one.
Super Bowl odds: +850
That wasn’t even the Packers at their best, yet they made a statement that they intend to be the new kings of the NFL’s best division. Jordan Love and Micah Parsons are really just getting started.
With Micah Parsons now wreaking havoc in green and gold, are the Packers primed to be the class of the NFC? (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
Super Bowl odds: +1200
Two years ago, the Chiefs lost on Opening Day. They went on a six-game winning streak after that and a few months later they won the Super Bowl. So don’t panic over their loss to the Chargers. The dynasty isn’t dead yet.
Super Bowl odds: +3500
You doubted Aaron Rodgers? Shame on you. He turned in a vintage, four-touchdown performance against his old team. Yeah, he needed a 60-yard field goal to squeak by. But if he’s as good as he was on Sunday, the Steelers will be good all year.
Super Bowl odds: +1700
It wasn’t their best effort, but they didn’t need it against the Giants. Jayden Daniels is still good (233 passing yards, 68 rushing yards) and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury seems to love his new toy, WR Deebo Samuel (7 catches for 77 yards and a 19-yard rushing touchdown).
Super Bowl odds: +1800
That was a statement win on Friday night in Brazil for Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert. They proved to be a threat to the Chiefs by beating them, and Herbert showed his elite side. Consider the Chargers a real contender.
Super Bowl odds: +2200
That wasn’t the explosive Bucs offense we’ve gotten used to seeing (only 260 total yards?). But they pulled out a win against a tough division rival. With reservations, take the win and move on.
Super Bowl odds: +2500
Well, they’re 1-0, but it’s not like they avoided a slow start. This loaded team had 141 yards of offense (113 passing yards from Joe Burrow and 26 receiving yards from Ja’Marr Chase) and only won because the Browns’ young kicker had the yips. This was not encouraging.
Something was surprisingly off about Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 1. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Super Bowl odds: +2000
They looked very much like a team that lost both its coordinators in the offseason. The defense couldn’t figure out Jordan Love, and the offense was a mess — particularly on the ground. The Lions are loaded with talent, but have a lot of work to do.
Super Bowl odds: +5000
I still believe the Cardinals could be one of the NFL’s biggest surprises, but I’ll be honest: I was expecting more, especially against a really bad Saints team. Kyler Murray could be special, but 173 passing yards (and 2 TDs) and 38 rushing yards is pretty pedestrian.
Super Bowl odds: +2000
I am still concerned about Matthew Stafford being 37 with a bad back, but he was good on Sunday (21 of 29, 245 yards, 1 TD) and the Rams have plenty of offensive weapons. Their defense looked great, too. I just wish the Rams had scored more than 14 points. They used to be explosive.
Super Bowl odds: +5000
What the heck was that? The playoffs were supposed to signal that C.J. Stroud had shaken off his sophomore slump. Then he goes 19 of 27 for 188 yards, no TDs and an interception in a 14-9 loss to the Rams? Was last year not a fluke?
Super Bowl odds: +2200
Yikes. A team that thinks of itself as a Super Bowl contender shouldn’t barely squeak by a bad Titans team with a rookie QB who struggled. And 176 yards and two interceptions from Bo Nix? If that’s the start of a sophomore slump, they’re going to have issues.
Super Bowl odds: +2500
J.J. McCarthy showed a lot of moxie with his second-half comeback and gave Minnesota a lot of reason for hope. But going 13 of 20 for 143 yards won’t cut it on most nights. That second half has to become his norm.
J.J. McCarthy became the first player in league history to be responsible for three touchdowns in the fourth quarter of his NFL debut. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Super Bowl odds: +1900
It really helped their cause that Christian McCaffrey was healthy and accounted for 142 yards. But they still barely hung on even though their defense shut down Seattle. They look competitive, but not explosive.
Super Bowl odds: +9000
I told you I was worried I had the Falcons too low. Michael Penix Jr. (27 of 42, 298 yards, 1 TD) looks legit and his team is loaded with weapons. They pushed the Bucs, a fringe Super Bowl contender, to the brink, and that’s without establishing the run. I might still have them too low.
Super Bowl odds: +7000
It looks like Ben Johnson did some nice work with Caleb Williams (25 of 35, 211 yards, 1 TD; 6 carries, 58 yards, 1 TD). But he sure does have his work cut out for him with a defense that collapsed in the fourth quarter against the Vikings.
Super Bowl odds: +7000
Wait, Travis Hunter was a non-factor and Travis Etienne ran for 143 yards? Talk about the unexpected. I’d be more excited about their 26-10 win if it wasn’t against Carolina, and if Trevor Lawrence (19 of 31, 178 yards, 1 TD, 1 interception) looked better.
Super Bowl odds: +1000
They gave Philadelphia an Opening Night scare, and their offense makes them capable of doing that a lot this year. But the Cowboys’ defense is still a problem — even their new-look run defense, which gave up 158 yards.
Super Bowl odds: +12000
Underestimate QB Geno Smith at your own peril. He was a very impressive 24 of 34 for 362 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception. TE Brock Bowers left the game with a knee injury. The Raiders say he’s fine. He better be, because they’re not loaded with weapons.
A week shy of his 74th birthday, Pete Carroll became the oldest coach in NFL history Sunday — and he did it in winning fashion. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
Super Bowl odds: +9000
Is the magic just gone from Sam Darnold? He was 16 of 23 for 150 yards, no touchdowns, and a game-ending fumble at the San Francisco 9. Not signing him and trading Geno Smith was very Jets of the Seahawks.
Super Bowl odds: +9000
Getting out of New York was apparently great for Daniel Jones. So was playing the awful Miami Dolphins. The Colts became the first NFL team to score on every possession in a game since 1978. And Indiana Jones went 22 of 29 for 272 yards and one touchdown, and rushed seven times for 26 yards and two touchdowns in the Colts’ first Opening Day win in 12 years.
Super Bowl odds: +30000
Everyone knew Justin Fields could run (12 carries, 48 yards, 2 TDs in Week 1), but who knew he could pass (16 of 22, 218 yards, 1 TD)? If he’s a dual threat, the Jets are better than everyone thinks, especially if their defense can get back on track.
Super Bowl odds: +8000
What’s wrong with Drake Maye? They’ll be asking that question all week in New England after a sloppy performance and a loss to the Raiders. But he wasn’t horrible (30 of 46, 287 yards, 1 TD, 1 interception). Odds are, he’ll be fine.
Super Bowl odds: +30000
Getting a capable quarterback was supposed to change everything for the Giants and finally show off Brian Daboll’s offensive genius. But even with 10-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson, New York managed just 231 yards and no touchdowns against the Commanders. The more things change …
Super Bowl odds: +60000
As long as Joe Flacco is at QB, the Browns have a chance to not be terrible. He threw for 290 yards, but that included two interceptions. Still, Cleveland nearly took down the Bengals, but … Szmyt (rookie kicker Andrew Szmyt, that is) happened.
Super Bowl odds: +20000
Mike McDaniel was the easy choice for No. 1 in my head coach hot seat rankings heading into the season. Based on Sunday, he might be gone before my next update. The Dolphins, with all their speed, had 211 yards of offense and no answer for Daniel Jones?!
The Dolphins weren’t close to competitive against the Colts, which has everyone wondering how much longer Mike McDaniel will be coaching in Miami. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Super Bowl odds: +20000
Remember at the end of last season when everyone thought Bryce Young was ready to make the next step to greatness? Well, he went 18 of 35 for 154 yards with a TD, two interceptions and a fumble in a 26-10 loss to Jacksonville on Sunday. That’s about three steps backwards.
Super Bowl odds: +25000
I know they had a chance to win in the end, but the big picture isn’t good. Rookie QB Cam Ward was just 12 of 28 for 112 yards and fumbled the ball away in the final minute. He was sacked six times and the victim of multiple drops. The Titans had 133 yards of offense, which they nearly matched with 13 penalties for 131 yards. This is a bad team.
Super Bowl odds: +60000
The calls for rookie QB Tyler Shough have already begun in New Orleans, which isn’t surprising. But how bad did he have to be to not beat out Spencer Rattler, who was 27 of 46 for just 214 yards and no touchdown passes in the opener? The Saints are in Quarterback Hell.
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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