Week 2 was a statement week for power conferences. Now, we get our first good taste of conference play this season in Week 3.
Both the ACC and Big Ten have their first conference games of the season this weekend, while the Big 12 and SEC ramp up their conference slate on Saturday. I’ll be on the call for one of those Big Ten matchups, with Northwestern hosting Oregon on “Big Noon Saturday” (Saturday, noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app).
I won’t have a pick for that game, but I will make selections for a pair of noteworthy SEC matchups and an out-of-conference game that’s a must-win for one of the teams involved.
I’m very excited to see this Oregon team. I expressed earlier this week just how bullish I am about the Ducks, as I believe they look the part of a team that can win a national championship.
Oregon travels to Evanston to take on Northwestern
Oregon certainly showed that last week. It took down Oklahoma State, 69-3, in Week 2, with quarterback Dante Moore playing stellar. In fact, Moore has helped Oregon score a touchdown in 13 of the 15 drives he’s been on the field so far this season. He’s been accurate with the football and has elite arm talent.
What I may be more impressed with Oregon, though, is how it’s built defensively. The Ducks’ defense can lead the country in yards allowed, and that’s what you need to win the national championship. The last four national champions all ranked in the top three in yards allowed. Oregon is great in the middle of its defensive line, has speed on the outside and a really quality secondary.
Northwestern was able to bounce back last week after its season-opening loss to Tulane, defeating Western Illinois, 42-7. It has SMU transfer Preston Stone at quarterback, who threw for four interceptions in the season-opening loss to Tulane before throwing for three scores last week.
With the way we’ve seen these teams play over the first couple of weeks, Tennessee might be better than we thought and there are a lot of questions surrounding Georgia. The way Georgia’s offense played against Austin Peay was concerning, and there’s been a big part of me that’s wanted to jump on the Tennessee bandwagon for this matchup.
But let’s break this game into chunks. Georgia’s offensive line is going to be healthier and more effective in this game. It looks like it’s going to get its starting right tackle, Earnest Greene III, back for this game. If that corrects itself, that’s a huge momentum boost for Georgia.
Looking at the quarterbacks, this is a new environment for both. This is Georgia quarterback Gunnar Stockton’s first true road start, but this won’t be his first big start. We saw him play in the SEC Championship Game and start in the College Football Playoff, so I’m a little less concerned about him than I am about Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar. Aguilar has never played a game like this one. I’m glad for him that this game is at home rather than on the road.
Gunnar Stockton and Georgia’s offense will look to make a statement in Week 3. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
When you look at the overall matchup, Kirby Smart has had Josh Heupel’s number. Heupel’s Tennessee teams haven’t had the same success against Georgia that they’ve had against most other SEC teams over the last few years. In the four meetings between Georgia and Tennessee since Heupel became the Volunteers’ head coach in 2021, the Bulldogs have outscored them by 80 points. Tennessee also hasn’t scored more than 17 points against Georgia over those four matchups, even with some good offenses and players.
So, why is it that Georgia has played well against Tennessee? The obvious answer is that Georgia has better players. We know that. But why is that specifically tough for Tennessee, especially against Georgia’s defense? Tennessee’s offense can be explosive, generally utilizing choice routes and the quarterback picks a side pre-snap and plays that combination. There’s a tremendous amount of pressure and expectation that the quarterback and wide receiver are going to be on the same page, and when they are, they can exploit defenses. But Georgia’s defense is talented enough to succeed in man coverage and it can play high-low in its coverage, too.
I believe that this will be a low-scoring affair and I don’t see either side scoring more than 21 points. Looking at the recent history of this matchup, I have to take Georgia to win the game.
Pick: Georgia 21, Tennessee 17 (Georgia -3.5)
This is a great non-conference game, and a massive one for Notre Dame. Of course, Notre Dame lost to Miami (Fla.) to open the season, and without a ton of marquee matchups on its schedule, this is a must-win. I know it’s early in the season, but if Notre Dame finishes 10-2 with losses to Miami and Texas A&M, I don’t see what else is on its schedule that helps it win arguments to be included in the College Football Playoff.
What’s the adjustment Notre Dame may make in this game? It should be to get running back Jeremiyah Love to touch the ball way more than he did in Week 1. I don’t think he was utilized in that Miami game to the necessary amount for Notre Dame to win the game. I believe Notre Dame will correct that and force Texas A&M to take away Love before relying on the passing game. So, I think Love has a big game.
Notre Dame will need to utilize Jeremiyah Love more against Texas A&M. (Photo by Chris Arjoon/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
I don’t have a good read on Texas A&M’s defense yet. It should be a good unit, but it probably isn’t as great as Miami’s because of the pass-rushing talent the Canes have.
Still, I like Texas A&M this year. Quarterback Marcel Reed is dynamic, but he’s going to have to throw the ball well like Carson Beck did against Notre Dame in Week 1. He does have a pair of quality wide receivers in Mario Craver and KC Concepcion.
I also liked what I saw out of Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr against Miami, and I think the Fighting Irish will help clarify some of those looks he’ll throw into.
Pick: Notre Dame 31, Texas A&M 24 (Notre Dame -6.5)
Can South Florida do it three weeks in a row? The Bulls would have to defeat a Miami team that’s built really well along the line of scrimmage, which is what I like about the Canes. This team is physical and can own the line of scrimmage, which it did against Notre Dame. So, Mario Cristobal has built a proper team that can play at the high end.
USF is a really good team. It did an incredible job in the secondary last week, taking away big plays from Florida quarterback DJ Lagway without producing a lot of pressure. However, I trust Miami quarterback Carson Beck to make big plays on the outside if USF can’t get to him.
Carson Beck has been impressive in his first two games with Miami. (Photo by Leonardo Fernandez/Getty Images)
I’m a fan of USF quarterback Byrum Brown as well. He’s huge (6-foot-3, 232 pounds), carrying it 15 times per game. That’ll be difficult for Miami, but I also trust its defense. The Canes’ defensive line will be a huge problem for opposing quarterbacks all season long.
So, I like Miami and it takes care of business.
Pick: Miami 31, USF 14 (USF +17.5)
Florida vs. LSU (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
You have to think, “OK, is Florida going to play the way it did against USF and lose at home and then beat LSU in Death Valley the very next week?”
The answer is no.
You could say Florida was looking ahead, and it obviously isn’t impossible for the Gators to win on Saturday. But I just don’t see it. Brian Kelly has been able to lean on his team this week, similar to the way Kirby Smart did with Georgia following an underwhelming Week 2 showing. The coaching staff has to be licking their chops to coach this group really hard this week.
Like I mentioned earlier, USF wasn’t bringing a lot of pressure on Lagway and Florida still couldn’t get much going. LSU’s defense is better than USF’s and it will put pressure on Lagway. I’ve loved what I’ve seen from LSU’s defense, and there aren’t many that are blitzing more than LSU. The Tigers are doing it with incredible players too, with Harold Perkins looking good.
I don’t think Florida is in a position where I would take it to cover the spread in this game — and that’s before getting into how much I like LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and running back Caden Durham.
Pick: LSU 31, Florida 21 (LSU -7.5)
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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