ISTANBUL (AP) — An Israeli strike on a gathering of Hamas officers in Qatar has forged a cloud of rising concern throughout Turkey that it may very well be the subsequent goal.
Turkish Protection Ministry spokesman Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk warned in Ankara on Thursday that Israel would “additional increase its reckless assaults, because it did in Qatar, and drag your complete area, together with its personal nation, into catastrophe.”
Israel and Turkey have been as soon as robust regional companions, however ties between the international locations bumped into difficulties from the late 2000s and have reached an all-time low over the warfare in Gaza sparked by the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led assault in southern Israel. Tensions even have risen as the 2 international locations have competed for affect in neighboring Syria because the fall of Bashar Assad’s authorities final 12 months.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a long-standing supporter of the Palestinian trigger and of the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The Turkish president has criticized Israel, and significantly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with strident rhetoric because the begin of the Gaza warfare, accusing Israel of genocide and likening Netanyahu to Nazi chief Adolf Hitler.
Hamas officers commonly go to Turkey and a few have taken up residence there. Israel beforehand accused Turkey of permitting Hamas to plan assaults from its territory, in addition to finishing up recruitment and fundraising.
Erdogan is near Qatar’s leaders and Turkey maintains robust army and business ties to the emirate. He is because of journey to Qatar this weekend for an Arab and Muslim leaders’ summit.
After Israel’s assaults on the territory of Iran, Syria, Yemen and now Qatar, Ankara is certain to be involved by Israel’s capacity to freely use the airspace of neighboring states.
“Israel’s capacity to conduct strikes with seeming impunity, typically bypassing regional air defenses and worldwide norms, units a precedent that deeply worries Ankara,” stated Serhat Suha Cubukcuoglu, director of Developments Analysis and Advisory’s Turkey program.
Turkey sees these assaults as a “broader Israeli technique to determine a fragmented buffer zone of weak or pacified states round it,” he added.
Turkey has superior army would possibly
In crossing a beforehand unthinkable line by attacking Qatar, a detailed American ally that has been serving as a mediator in Gaza ceasefire talks, Israel additionally has raised the query of how far it can go in pursuing Hamas targets.
By its NATO membership, Turkey would appear to have a higher diploma of safety in opposition to Israeli assault than that afforded to Qatar by its shut ties to america.
Turkey additionally boasts considerably higher army would possibly than the Gulf state, with its armed forces second in measurement solely to the U.S. amongst NATO international locations and a complicated protection business.
As tensions rise, Turkey has boosted its defenses. Throughout Israel’s assaults on Iran’s nuclear amenities in June, Erdogan introduced an improve in missile manufacturing. Final month he formally inaugurated Turkey’s “Metal Dome” built-in air protection system, whereas initiatives such because the KAAN fifth-generation fighter have been fast-tracked.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, stated an Israeli airstrike on the territory of a NATO member can be “extraordinarily unlikely,” however small-scale bomb or gun assaults on potential Hamas targets in Turkey by Israeli brokers may very well be a definite chance.
Cubukcuoglu, in the meantime, stated the Qatar assault might harden Ankara’s assist for Hamas.
“This resonates with Turkish anxieties that Israel might finally prolong such operations to Turkish territory,” he stated. “The Turkish authorities calculates that abandoning Hamas now would weaken its regional affect, whereas standing agency bolsters its position as a defender of Palestinian causes in opposition to Israeli aggression.”
Tensions might play out in Syria
Whereas consideration is concentrated on tensions surrounding the warfare in Gaza and Turkey’s relations with Hamas, Unluhisarcikli warned the higher hazard could also be in Syria, the place he described Israel and Turkey as being “on a collision course.”
“To assume that concentrating on Turkish troops or Turkish allies or proxies in Syria can be to go too far is wishful considering,” he stated.
Since Syrian rebels unseated Assad in December, rising tensions between Turkey and Israel have performed on the market. Ankara has supported the brand new interim authorities and sought to increase its affect, together with within the army sphere.
Israel views the brand new authorities with suspicion. It has seized a U.N.-patrolled buffer zone in southern Syria, launched lots of of airstrikes on Syrian army amenities and positioned itself because the protector of the Druze spiritual minority in opposition to the primarily Sunni Muslim authorities in Damascus.
Tensions additionally might spill into the broader jap Mediterranean, with Israel probably drawing nearer to Greece and Greek Cypriots to problem Turkey’s army presence in northern Cyprus.
Turkey mixes deterrence and diplomacy
Turkey seems to be pursuing a combination of army deterrence and diplomacy in Syria aimed toward defusing tensions to keep away from a direct battle with Israel.
Turkish and Israeli officers held talks in April to set up a “de-escalation mechanism” in Syria. The transfer adopted Israeli strikes on a Syrian airbase that Turkey had been purportedly planning to make use of. Netanyahu stated on the time that Turkish bases in Syria can be a “hazard to Israel.”
Ankara and Damascus final month signed an settlement on Turkey offering army coaching and recommendation to Syria’s armed forces.
Erdogan additionally might hope Washington would take a tough line in opposition to any Israeli army incursions.
Whereas Netanyahu has sought assist from U.S. President Donald Trump within the faceoff with Turkey, Trump as a substitute lavished reward on Erdogan for “taking up Syria” and urged Netanyahu to be “affordable” in his dealings with Turkey.
However because the strike in Qatar confirmed, having robust relations with Washington shouldn’t be essentially a safeguard in opposition to Israel.
The Qatar assault confirmed there was “no restrict to what the Israeli authorities can do,” Unluhisarcikli stated.
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Sewell contributed from Beirut.
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Observe the AP’s protection of the Israel-Hamas warfare at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war.
