Each of the 12 MLB playoff teams can win the World Series, right?
Some are expected to, while others are just relieved to reach October. Each team has plenty of reasons as to why they’ll be hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy in five weeks’ time – and several for why they’ll fall short.
FOX Sports MLB reporters Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar break down the playoff field and what to expect with the postseason now here.
Record: 94-68 (1st in AL East; No. 1 seed)
Why They Will: The Blue Jays’ brand is playing bold, heads-up baseball — and it works. They make contact, they get on base, they pressure defenses into making bang-bang plays. It’s a similar strategy to the Brewers’ success this year, and there’s reason to believe that bullying the other team will work even better in the postseason, where luck can be just as much of a factor as tangible results. When the Blue Jays are at their best, they’re excellent at exposing the opposing team’s flaws and hanging in there every game.
Why They Won’t: The pitching staff doesn’t boast many trusted options. It’s wild to think their season-long bullpen troubles have taken a back seat to fresher, bigger challenges – like who is starting Game 3 of a playoff series? Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt are injured. Max Scherzer has been mediocre dating back to August. He has a 9.00 ERA (25 earned runs, 25 innings) in his last six starts. After Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber, it’s Mad Max and hopes and prayers for Toronto’s playoff rotation. That staff, from the starting pitchers to the relievers, is not inducing confidence.
Will Bo Bichette be back in action for the playoffs after missing most of September? (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
One Big Stat: Toronto leads the major leagues with a .265 team batting average.
One Low-Key Stat: The Blue Jays’ 122 wRC+ with runners in scoring position is ranked second in the major leagues.
Player to watch: Bo Bichette. Keep an eye on when (if?) the shortstop will return to playing duties. Bichette, Toronto’s team-leader in hits, has been sidelined since Sept. 7 with a left knee sprain, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be ready in time for the first round of the playoffs. –Thosar
Record: 90-72 (1st in AL West; No. 2 seed)
Why They Will?: Beyond Cal Raleigh’s magnificent season being reason enough to believe that he can carry the club to the promised land, Seattle is getting hot and playing their best at exactly the right time. The Mariners finished the regular season with a 10-game winning streak, followed by a loss, and a seven-game winning streak. Their pitching staff is on a roll right now, and that’s been the foundation for their second-half success. Over their last 30 games, they own the second-best ERA (3.29) in the AL. Seattle should be plenty comfortable stacking up Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo (presuming he heals up), Luis Castillo, and George Kirby in their playoff rotation, and opposing lineups should be anxious to face them.
Why They Won’t: They’re not a great fielding team, and they’re pretty slow on the basepaths. The Mariners head into the postseason with -29 Outs Above Average, which is good for 27th in MLB. Their defensive WAR is -23.4, with only the Rays, White Sox, Nationals, and Angels being worse. That’s the type of scouting report that playoff teams will be ready to take advantage of in October.
The Mariners feature a power-hitting duo in Eugenio Suárez and Cal Raleigh. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
One Big Stat: No free passes. The Mariners rotation has a 6.6% walk rate, which is the lowest in the AL.
One Low-Key Stat: Seattle has the second-highest wRC+ (113) in the major leagues.
Player to watch: Randy Arozarena. Look no further than his career postseason slash line of .336/.414/.690 in 33 games. To go along with those spectacular results, Arozarena has 11 home runs and 17 RBI in the playoffs, and a taste of October baseball could be exactly what the slumping outfielder needs to turn his performance around for the Mariners. When the lights are brightest, Arozarena is built for prime time. –Thosar
Record: 88-74 (1st in AL Central; No. 3 seed)
Why They Will: Guards Ball. They’re scrappy, and they force opposing teams into uncomfortable positions. Take last week’s dramatic sixth-inning comeback against Tarik Skubal and the Tigers, as an example. Three consecutive bunt attempts — who does that?! — forced Skubal to make a throwing error and, just like that, Detroit’s 2-0 lead warped into a 5-2 Cleveland win. If the Guardians can do that against Skubal, the AL’s expected Cy Young winner for the second straight year, then they can rattle any playoff team. All they need is a chance, and now they have it.
Why They Won’t: The Guardians can’t win on luck alone. No one would confuse them for being the most talented squad in the playoff bracket, and the fact that they don’t rely on power/out-slugging the opponent could hurt them in October. As an offense, they’re in the bottom-third of the league in all three slash-line categories, with a wRC+ that grades out as below league average.
Kyle Manzardo will need to step for the Guardians to continue their remarkable season. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/IOS/Getty Images)
One Big Stat: Cleveland’s .670 OPS is ranked 29th in the major leagues.
One Low-Key Stat: The Guardians’ pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA this season, which is the second-best in the AL.
Players to watch: Kyle Manzardo. Besides Jose Ramirez, Manzardo is the only Guardians hitter to hit at least 15 home runs this season (he ended the year with 27). His finish to the season wasn’t spectacular, but Cleveland will need his production from early in the year and July (.936 OPS) to win it all.
Record: 94-68 (2nd in AL East; No. 4 seed)
Why They Will: The Yankees lineup somewhat sneakily has more balance and depth than last year’s American League pennant team, which is a big deal considering they were tasked with replacing Juan Soto’s clutch 2024 production. The combination of Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, Trent Grisham and Ben Rice goes a long way to lengthen the offense — headlined of course by the elite, power slugging bats of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, both of whom are enjoying MVP-caliber seasons. This is a formidable unit with a solid blend of veterans and young stars, and they’re motivated to get back on the World Series stage.
Why They Won’t: The bullpen is still concerning. Since the All-Star break, the relief corps has a 4.86 ERA that’s ranked 26th in the majors. While closer David Bednar has been overall reliable since being traded to the Yankees, and fans should feel confident with him pitching the ninth inning, it’s hard to tell which version of Devin Williams they’ll get on any given night. The silver lining: Williams has recorded nine consecutive scoreless relief appearances dating back to Sept. 7, so he might be locking in at exactly the right time. Williams and Luke Weaver will both be essential as setup men in high-leverage situations, and their ability to escape sticky situations and avoid meltdowns will be paramount to the team’s success.
Max Fried will the main man on the mound for the Yankees. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images)
One Big Stat: The Yankees lead the major leagues in home runs (272).
One Low-Key Stat: Right-handed Yankees pitchers have a 4.37 ERA, which is ranked 19th in MLB.
Players to watch: Aaron Judge and Max Fried. Judge is always the Yankees’ player to watch, because his performance will be critical for the club in October. He should be plenty motivated to reverse the narrative that he struggles to hit in the postseason (Judge has a career .205 batting average and .768 OPS in 58 games). Like Judge, Fried does not have a great reputation in the playoffs. The last time he took the mound in October, he allowed five runs in two innings to the Padres, and the southpaw has a 5.10 ERA in 20 career playoff outings. Fried will have to pitch like an ace for the Yankees to get where they want to go. –Thosar
Record: 89-73 (3rd in AL East; No. 5 seed)
Why They Will: They have two huge weapons on their pitching staff. Garrett Crochet is filthy, having enjoyed a Cy Young caliber season in his first year in Boston. The Red Sox should be dripping with confidence when he starts Game 1 of a playoff series, particularly with his 18 wins this season, tied for second-most in the AL behind Max Fried. And then there’s the threat of Aroldis Chapman looming over the final inning. Chapman recorded the best season of his 16-year career, posting a 1.17 ERA and an otherworldly 0.70 WHIP in 61.1 innings for the Red Sox.
Why They Won’t: They make too many mistakes on the field, and the playoffs are exactly when that kind of weakness can be exposed by pesky teams like the Blue Jays. Boston will have to go through Toronto in order to win the World Series, and that could be a nightmare for a club as sloppy as the Sox. Trevor Story, especially, has been a magnet for mistakes, with his 19 errors being tied with Anthony Volpe for the most in the AL at shortstop.
Garrett Crochet had himself a Cy Young-esque year for Boston. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
One Big Stat: The Red Sox lead the majors in errors (115).
One Low-Key Stat: Boston’s 12 walk-off wins are the most in the AL.
Player to watch: Roman Anthony. If the Red Sox advance past the wild card round, there’s a chance Anthony could rejoin the lineup for the rest of their playoff push. The 21-year-old rookie had eight home runs, 32 RBI, 48 runs scored, four stolen bases, and a .859 OPS in 71 games before hitting the IL with an oblique strain. –Thosar
Record: 87-75 (2nd in AL Central; No. 6 seed)
Why They Will: Detroit, when at its best, is pretty good at cashing in with runners in scoring position. The last month notwithstanding, when the Tigers dominated the division throughout most of the season, they were able to do so by producing clutch hits. That they have the sixth-highest OPS (.778) with runners in scoring position is an encouraging sign, and they can rely on that excellent situational hitting to win games deep into October. That and, of course, Tarik Skubal leading the rotation — coming off his second consecutive ERA title — will be a huge boon for this once-strong club.
Why They Won’t: They’re falling apart at exactly the wrong time. The Tigers lost 13 of their final 16 games, becoming the first team in MLB history to hold a double-digit division lead and fail to hold on for the title. Since they’re set to face the Guardians in the wild card round, the same team they played nine times in a 17-day stretch in September, the Tigers will need to play at their best. Very little about the way they ended the season has suggested their best baseball is with them.
Tigers ace Tarik Skubal needs to shake off what was a particular off-kilter week. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
One Big Stat: The Tigers rotation has the third-highest strikeout rate (24.9%) in the major leagues.
One Low-Key Stat: The Tigers have the lowest ground-ball rate (38%) in the majors.
Player to watch: Javier Baez. They have the veteran to thank for their only win against the Red Sox in their final series of the regular season. Baez was responsible for one of the two runs the Tigers scored on Saturday to secure their playoff spot. The 32-year-old tends to come alive in rowdy environments, and he can cap off a comeback season by being a difference-maker on offense in the playoffs. –Thosar
Record: 97-55 (1st in NL Central; No. 1 seed)
Why They Will: Individually, you might look at this roster compiled with a bottom-10 payroll, and not be especially intimidated. Together, though, this group of “Average Joes” — as manager Pat Murphy lovingly refers to his players — has been the best team in baseball and will take the top seed into the playoffs. Apart from barreling the baseball, the Brewers do basically everything else well, pressuring opponents with their scrappy style of play. Their hitters work counts, don’t chase and put the ball in play, forcing opposing pitchers and defenses to work. On the basepaths, they can create chaos with their team speed. On the mound, they’ve compiled the lowest ERA in the National League. Their pitchers have masterfully limited hard contact, and their ace, All-Star Freddy Peralta, put together the best campaign of his eight-year career.
Why They Won’t: The aforementioned traits helped the Brewers amass the best record in baseball, but it remains to be seen if that style of play will translate to the postseason, where Milwaukee has struggled in recent years. Each of the last five World Series winners have ranked in the top four in MLB in home runs; the Brewers are tied for 21st. They lack the star power of other contenders, and the depth that has served them well through the 162-game marathon may not matter as much come playoff time. They’re limping into the postseason with 20 losses over their last 30 games, and, most concerningly, with the status of some of their top arms in question. All-Star closer Trevor Megill is dealing with a flexor strain. Brandon Woodruff has a lat strain, and Jose Quintana has a calf strain. That might be too much to overcome.
The Brewers, without the usual headline star, finished as the best team in baseball. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
One Big Stat: The Brewers’ offense has the highest on-base percentage and the most steals in the National League.
One Low-Key Stat: They have 10 different players who are above league-average hitters (min. 200 plate appearances), the most in MLB.
Players to watch: The Brewers have one player who ranks in MLB’s top 30 in fWAR, and it’s not Christian Yelich, William Contreras or Jackson Chourio. The honor, rather, belongs to Brice Turang, who has an OPS over .900 in the second half. Also keep an eye on Andrew Vaughn, who has been the Brewers’ best hitter this year after getting acquired from the White Sox a month before the deadline. On the pitching side, remember when Jacob Misiorowski made the All-Star team after just five career starts? It hasn’t gone as well since then for the flamethrower, who posted an ERA over 5.00 in the second half. But he demonstrated in the All-Star Game what a weapon his triple-digit heat can be in relief, and it’ll be interesting to see how Milwaukee uses him. – Kavner
Record: 96-66 (1st in NL East; No. 2 seed)
Why They Will: Even without Zack Wheeler, this group looks as equipped as any team to do what it couldn’t the last three years and win the final game of the year. Christopher Sánchez, Rangers Suárez and Jesus Luzardo give the Phillies a trio of starters who can go toe-to-toe with the best any opponent has to offer. The addition of Jhoan Duran gives them the star at the back end of the bullpen that past iterations of Phillies teams lacked. The addition of Harrison Bader helps complete an outfield that needed a boost. They’ll have home field advantage at least through the NLDS, an important benefit for a club that had the best home record in baseball this year. And with Kyle Schwarber in the lineup, anything feels possible. It’s been a career year for the 32-year-old, who led the NL with 56 homers and all of MLB with 132 RBI.
Why They Won’t: Yes, the Phillies can survive without Wheeler; but, man, that’s a brutal loss. He looked like a Cy Young contender throughout the first half, and he always seems to find another gear in October. He also breaks up the Phillies’ lefty-heavy rotation. Aaron Nola could do that, too, but his season has not inspired much confidence. Maybe postseason sensation Walker Buehler ends up helping, but beyond the top trio of Phillies starters, the depth is a question in a long series. In the bullpen, even with Duran at the back end, it’s going to hurt not having Jose Alvarado as a leverage option against left-handers. But the most pressing concern is the health of Trea Turner, the N.L. batting champ. If he doesn’t look like himself coming off a late-season hamstring injury, a lineup that lacks star power beyond Schwarber and Bryce Harper looks less intimidating.
You need a reliable closer in the playoffs, and the Phillies picked themselves a great one in Jhoan Duran. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
One Big Stat: They had the lowest starters’ ERA in the National League. Their trio of Sánchez, Suárez and Luzardo (depite missing Wheeler) all rank among MLB’s top 25 qualified starters in ERA.
One Low-Key Stat: Despite missing Turner and Alec Bohm for long chunks of the second half and still had MLB’s highest OPS after the break.
Players to watch: Turner’s health is something to keep an eye on, and Schwarber’s capable of turning a game and a series at any moment, but October tends to be the month of Harper. The 32-year-old has had a good season, though hardly among his best. Still, he’s one of the game’s all-time great postseason hitters, with a career 1.016 playoff OPS. This is his time to shine. I’m also keeping an eye on Duran, who scuffled a bit late in the year but could be a championship-altering addition. – Kavner
Record: 93-69 (1st in NL West; No. 3 seed)
Why They Will: This wasn’t the “best team ever” season many predicted when the reigning champions restocked this winter and turned into what appeared to be an indomitable juggernaut, but they have one of the deepest starting rotations in the field with four pitchers who could be Game 1 starters on most other teams, and they still employ Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman atop one of the scariest lineups in the sport. Betts, Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages are playing some of their best baseball down the stretch for one of the most high-powered offenses in MLB. And though their bullpen has been a mess, it could look a lot different with Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw and a suddenly rejuvenated Roki Sasaki potentially added to the mix. In a wide-open field, this is still the team to beat.
Why They Won’t: So, about that bullpen…
The Dodgers’ biggest offseason signings and re-signings have failed to live up to expectations, none more so than their big-money relievers. They gave Tanner Scott four years and $72 million. They re-signed Blake Treinen for two years and $22 million. They gave Kirby Yates $13 million. Each of those three pitchers produced an ERA over 6.00 in September. Their only deadline help to address the issue, Brock Stewart, needs shoulder surgery. Dave Roberts has few obvious answers to record the final outs. Even if Sheehan, Kershaw and/or Sasaki help, it will be in a role in which they have little familiarity. Can that really be a viable solution for four straight series? Meanwhile, the health of All-Star catcher Will Smith is up in the air as he nurses a hairline fracture in his throwing hand. If he’s not right, that’s a big blow.
Shohei Ohtani has shined as a batter in the playoffs. Now he’ll show it on the mound. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)
One Big Stat: The Dodgers’ offense led the National League in runs, home runs, slugging and OPS.
One Low-Key Stat: After Blake Snell returned from the injured list on Aug. 2, the Dodgers’ rotation led MLB in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and strikeout rate. In September, Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto combined for a 0.43 ERA.
Player to watch: Let’s go with the likely NL MVP who gets to show off his two-way skills for the first time in his postseason career. The Dodgers slow-played Ohtani’s progression on the mound in his return from elbow surgery, and the move looks prudent; he has been at his best as a pitcher down the stretch, allowing no runs in three September outings. This is also the last ride for Kershaw, whose October role remains a question; how will Roberts choose to use the future Hall of Famer? – Kavner
Record: 92-70 (2nd in NL Central; No. 4 seed)
Why They Will: When it’s rolling, this is one of the most dynamic lineups in baseball. The Cubs can hit, they can run, and they play elite defense. Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong were both All-Stars who looked like NL MVP candidates in the season’s first half. Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki both had arguments to be All-Stars. Busch and Tucker finished the year ranked in the top 25 among qualified hitters in OPS. Tucker, Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner finished in the top 25 among position players in fWAR. They have six different 20-home run hitters and five different players with more than 15 steals. At any given point, a different player can carry the group: Hoerner, for example, hit .333 in September while Happ had an .893 OPS in the season’s final month.
Why They Won’t: Cade Horton, who might be the Rookie of the Year after posting a 1.03 ERA in the second half, is out with a fractured rib, and now the Cubs might come to regret their unwillingness to add an impact arm. The rest of the rotation is vulnerable. Matthew Boyd was an All-Star, but he had an ERA over 5.00 in September. Shota Imanaga had an ERA over 6.00 in September. Jameson Taillon has pitched well lately, but this rotation could be their undoing. In addition, so much of what made this team a legitimate World Series contender was the production of Crow-Armstrong, who regressed mightily at the plate in the second half, and Tucker, whose availability and production were limited in the second half due to injury. Tucker played just five games in September.
Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker started the season hot and then faded. Can a change in season be the cure? (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)
One Big Stat: The Cubs have the third-most steals and the third-fewest errors in MLB.
One Low-Key Stat: The Cubs are the only offense in MLB that ranks in the top five in lowest whiff rate and highest barrel rate. (They do damage, yet they rarely swing and miss).
Players to watch: Which version of Tucker, Crow-Armstrong and Boyd do the Cubs get? If they look more like they did in the season’s first half (.882 OPS, .847 OPS, 2.34 ERA, respectively), this team could make a run to a title. If they look more like they did after the break (.738 OPS, .634 OPS, 4.63 ERA), an early exit could await. – Kavner
Record: 90-72 (2nd in NL West; No. 5 seed)
Why They Will: In the first half, the Padres’ lineup didn’t possess the depth of last year’s group — and, frankly, didn’t look like a playoff offense. Then they supercharged their roster at the 2025 deadline. Ramon Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin addressed the club’s biggest problem spots, while flamethrower Mason Miller made their biggest strength even scarier. This might now be the most dominant bullpen in the playoff field, a deep group capable of shortening games. Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. found their groove in late September, Luis Arraez hit over .350 in the season’s final month, and Xander Bogaerts is back from injury in the nick of time, allowing the other infielders to move back into their more typical roles. Any team with Merrill, Tatis and Manny Machado has a chance.
Why They Won’t: The Padres will spend most of October on the road, where they had a losing record this year. The rotation could be a problem. Nick Pivetta has been solid, and Dylan Cease has looked much better of late, but Cease has a 4.55 ERA on the year. Michael King had an ERA over 5.00 in September, and Yu Darvish had an ERA over 5.00 for the season. The bullpen is elite, but the group took a hit losing Jason Adam for the year, and the club’s biggest strength won’t matter if the team is playing from behind. A late-season injury to Laureano, who has been one of the best deadline adds in MLB, puts a serious dent in the lineup and forces Gavin Sheets out to left field, which is not an ideal defensive alignment and leaves the club with few viable options off the bench.
With reliever Mason Miller, the Padres have balanced a potent lineup with a stronger bullpen. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
One Big Stat: The Padres’ bullpen sports an MLB-best 3.06 ERA; the next-closest team is the Red Sox at 3.41. Miller has a 0.77 ERA since going to San Diego.
One Low-Key Stat: The Padres ranked 16th in OPS overall and 24th with runners in scoring position.
Players to watch: Hampered by injuries for much of the year, Merrill was unable to replicate his breakout rookie year but turned it on down the stretch with an OPS over 1.000 in his final 20 games. Tatis has been just as good over the last couple of weeks. Manny Machado hit under .200 in September, but he hit four homers in his last 12 games. The Padres probably need all three of their top trio producing to get where they hope to go. – Kavner
Record: 83-79 (3rd in NL Central; No. 6 seed)
Why They Will: In his first season as Boston’s manager in 2004, Terry Francona guided the Red Sox to a curse-breaking World Series title. In his first season as Cincinnati’s manager, the veteran skipper has a talented but novice Reds team in the playoffs for the first time since the COVID-shortened 2020 season and for the first full season since 2013. The Reds, trailing by six games for the final playoff spot with 21 games to go, got hot at the right time, winning eight of their last 11 games and getting plenty of help from the Mets to secure the final spot on the season’s final day. The Reds had a winning record against teams .500 or better this year, and with Hunter Greene, All-Star Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo — who struck out 12 batters his last time out — atop the rotation, their talented arms could yield a Cinderella run.
Why They Won’t: They won the “well, someone has to be here” award for the final wild-card spot. With a chance to solidify the final playoff spot Sunday, they lost — and got lucky that the Mets did, too. The Reds finished the year with 83 wins; no other team in the postseason field has fewer than 87. They have the worst offense among the NL playoff teams, and their most dynamic talent, Elly De La Cruz, was just a slightly above league-average hitter following last year’s breakout. At the end of August, they scored four runs over three games while getting swept at Dodger Stadium; that’s where they’ll have to start the postseason.
One Big Stat: Their .706 OPS ranked 19th among MLB teams this year — and last among all NL playoff clubs.
One Low-Key Stat: The Reds don’t have a player who ranks in the top 50 in OPS among qualified MLB hitters.
With Terry Francona as manager, Hunter Greene and the Reds are aiming for an improbable run in the playoffs. (Photo by Jeff Dean/Getty Images)
Players to watch: On paper, the Reds look overmatched in their opening series. But a strong start from Greene, who allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five September starts, could set the stage for an upset. De La Cruz is the type of dynamic talent who can impact a series in a multitude of ways, and if he can get on base, his speed will put pressure on an opponent. It’ll also be interesting to keep an eye on Gavin Lux, who’ll face the team that traded him in the opening round. – Kavner
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
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