Coming off a faculty soccer weekend that includes losses by three groups within the AP ballot’s prime 5, issues ought to calm down a bit in Week 6. Key phrase there? Ought to. Modifications throughout the board inside our newest School Soccer Playoff projection indicators convention title races throughout the Huge Ten and SEC main off what to observe shifting ahead this fall.
There’s not many matchups this weekend pitting nationally ranked groups, however we discovered 10 video games worthy of point out the place prediction worth is there for the taking.
Final week’s outcomes: Brad Crawford (7-3 straight, 6-4 ATS); Chris Hummer (4-6, 2-8 ATS). After dropping the primary two picks of the weekend with Virginia and Arizona State upsets, my wagers settled down for a successful mark at 6-4 total. Notre Dame hammering Arkansas, Auburn maintaining it throughout the quantity in School Station and Oregon’s outright victory at Penn State helped.
Season totals: Crawford (36-14 straight, 30-20 ATS); Hummer (36-14; 20-30).
For readability, these strains have been taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on Sept. 28. New customers at FanDuel Sportsbook get $300 in bonus bets with a successful $5 wager.
Hummer (Clemson -13.5): These are two of probably the most disappointing groups within the FBS for various causes. North Carolina simply is not dwelling as much as the Invoice Belichick hype at 2-2 and having been outscored 82-23 in opposition to Energy 4 competitors. Clemson, for its half, went from preseason nationwide title contender to a disastrous 1-3. Nonetheless, Clemson is not a foul workforce. North Carolina is perhaps. The Tigers win the strains of scrimmage and at last look extra like themselves popping out of a bye week. — Clemson 38, North Carolina 20.
Crawford (Clemson -13.5): Is Clemson able to overlaying any unfold the rest of the season as a favourite? I’ve questions. Which one among these groups will likely be be higher ready coming off a bye week? And for the Tigers, how a lot do they nonetheless care with end-of-season targets primarily over? These are all components to think about when making this play. There’s the apparent expertise discrepancy as effectively, however that hasn’t helped Dabo Swinney’s a lot via 4 video games. — Clemson 27, North Carolina 10.
Hummer (Notre Dame -17.5): This line is climbing the unsuitable path for Boise State halfway via this week. But it surely needs to be famous that Brad and I choose the strains as of Sunday. Thus, the worth is with Notre Dame. Boise State is sweet. The Broncos are robust defensively, notably within the secondary, and they’ll be a tricky check. However Notre Dame’s scored on everybody this 12 months, and I am hesitant to wager on a Boise State offense that is a middling 61st in offensive success price. If there’s an space of vulnerability for Notre Dame it is within the secondary, however Maddux Madsen has simply been OK (69th in QBR) and I have never seen sufficient from the Broncos to assume they will mild it up via the air. Give me the Irish to cowl. — Notre Dame 35, Boise State 17.
Crawford (Boise State +17.5): The Irish is perhaps overvalued a bit right here after simply hanging 50-plus at Arkansas, however they’re actually a workforce that appears to be hitting their stride since opening with losses to Miami and Texas A&M. And whereas improved, there are nonetheless areas of weak spot to kind out defensively at Notre Dame earlier than mentioning “playoff” and “Irish” in the identical sentence shifting ahead. I am going to take the underdogs to cowl right here. — Notre Dame 38, Boise State 23.
Hummer (Michigan State +11.5): This might be a giant day for Dylan Raiola and the Huskers passing assault, as a result of the Spartans have been horrendous this 12 months defending the move at 116th in success price and 117th nationally in passing yards allowed per sport. The query turns into can Michigan State’s offense rating sufficient in opposition to what is a wonderful Nebraska secondary to maintain up? I feel Michigan State does sufficient popping out of a bye to maintain this shut. — Nebraska 34, Michigan State 24.
Crawford (Michigan State +11.5): Any believers in Nebraska but? The house loss to Michigan was a missed alternative for Matt Rhule, who nonetheless hasn’t crushed a nationally-ranked opponent with Huskers. The Spartans aren’t ranked, however they did cowl at USC this month and have an offense able to maintaining it throughout the quantity. If Nebraska leaves the again door open, Aidan Chiles will ship with a landing move to money. — Nebraska 31, Michigan State 24.
Hummer (Cincinnati -1.5): The Bearcats are significantly better this 12 months, however I am nonetheless somewhat shocked to see them favored over a ranked Iowa State workforce. However Vegas would not care about data or rankings, and the Bearcats have been taking part in nice. To me this sport comes down to at least one space: How does Cincinnati’s move protection holds up? I’ve full confidence the Bearcats can rating. That unit’s been superior at third nationally in yards per play. However the Cincinnati secondary has been a catastrophe at 132nd nationally in defensive success price in opposition to the move. Can Rocco Becht take benefit? I am unsure. Excessive-scoring, high-volume video games aren’t how Iowa State often wins. Give me the Bearcats. — Cincinnati 27, Iowa State 24.
Crawford (Cincinnati -1.5): Should you’re maintaining tabs on video games that includes an unranked workforce being favored at dwelling in opposition to a ranked opponent, it hits most of the time. We noticed it occur final week when then-unbeaten TCU was an underdog at Arizona State. One other state of affairs might be unfolding right here within the unpredictable Huge 12. Iowa State’s unbeaten, however this will likely be its first street sport in opposition to a convention opponent this fall. — Cincinnati 23, Iowa State 20.
Hummer (Mississippi State +13.5): In contrast to Auburn over the weekend, Mississippi State is succesful sufficient on offense to emphasize a Texas A&M protection that is had some shaky moments early this 12 months. It additionally helps that quietly the Bulldogs’ protection has been wonderful at thirty second nationally in yards allowed per play. Blake Shapen must recapture a few of his early-season kind, however I feel this units up effectively for a Mississippi State cowl. I would not even rule out an upset if the Bulldogs can pressure just a few turnovers. — Texas A&M 34, Mississippi State 21.
Crawford (Mississippi State +13.5): Mississippi State is 5-0 ATS this season and will’ve crushed Tennessee outright final week as a 7.5-point underdog at dwelling earlier than the Vols pressured extra time. Texas A&M did not cowl at dwelling in opposition to Auburn and wanted its prime defensive efficiency of the season to down the Tigers. The Aggies ought to keep unbeaten, however take the factors right here. And if you may get 14 factors or extra by kickoff, even higher. — Texas A&M 34, Mississippi State 24.
Hummer (Texas -7.5): It is a robust sport for Florida. Except we see a really totally different offensive product from DJ Lagway and the Gators passing assault, Florida will actually battle in opposition to one of many elite defenses in faculty soccer. And whereas the Gators protection has held up admirably for a lot of the 12 months, the accidents are beginning to pile up for that unit, particularly alongside the defensive position. Possibly Florida comes out of the bye week and appears completely totally different. It is doable. However primarily based on what we have seen to date, I am going to take Texas to cowl. — Texas 27, Florida 17.
Crawford (Texas -7.5): Assertion coming from Arch Manning? His first SEC begin of the season is crucial on this Texas schedule. It is tough to think about the Longhorns being an element within the league title race or playoff dialog in the event that they fall to a workforce amid a big decline. Billy Napier’s offense has no rhythm and going up in opposition to a protection plagued by stars, that is a foul omen. — Texas 24, Florida 10.
Hummer (Texas Tech -10.5): I enter this sport questioning if Houston can rating sufficient to maintain up with Texas Tech. The Cougars are higher on that aspect of the ball however nonetheless rank simply 86th nationally in yards per play and 116th in offensive success price. That might be an issue in opposition to what’s been an elite Texas Tech protection and an offensive unit able to placing up factors in bunches. Houston’s protection retains this sport shut for some time, however Texas Tech goes to be robust to beat popping out of a bye week. — Texas Tech 28, Houston 17.
Crawford (Houston +10.5): We’re maintaining the Pink Raiders because the projected Huge 12 champion this week, however Joey McGuire’s workforce is marked and isn’t any extra upset proof than many different remaining unbeatens. In contrast to most Texas Tech wins, this one may take extra of the methodical strategy in opposition to an opponent whose entrance seven defensively could battle getting push. However when you’re giving me 10.5 factors with an unranked workforce at dwelling coached by Willie Fritz, I am taking it. — Texas Tech 31, Houston 23.
Wisconsin at No. 20 Michigan
Hummer (Wisconsin +16.5): Does Wisconsin look any higher popping out of the bye week? That is the massive query getting into this one. It helps the Badgers’ case that Billy Edwards is again underneath middle as QB1. However the Badgers nonetheless should work out a method to constantly run the soccer. Michigan, exterior of massive runs by Justice Haynes, is not often notably explosive offensively, in order that works in Wisconsin’s favor when it comes to maintaining this shut. Michigan is healthier, however the Badgers handle to cowl in an vital sport for Luke Fickell. — Michigan 31, Wisconsin 20.
Crawford (Michigan -16.5): It is present me time for Fickell and the Badgers. Too usually Wisconsin has come out flat underneath this present regime in massive video games, so here is an opportunity at reversing these fortunes in Ann Arbor. The most effective play right here could be taking the underneath, however when you should choose a aspect, Michigan with a late cowl in a doubtlessly ugly sport seems like the proper spot to place your cash. — Michigan 30, Wisconsin 13.
Hummer (Vanderbilt +13.5): Vanderbilt is a product with which I do know precisely what to anticipate. The Commodores are going to regulate the clock, effectively transfer the soccer and keep away from defensive errors that result in explosive performs. Alabama? The Crimson Tide are extra proficient, however we have seen some very uneven performances from them this 12 months. This sport comes down to 2 areas to me: 1. How does a simply OK Vanderbilt offensive line maintain up? 2. Can Alabama set up any form of run sport and keep away from making Ty Simpson carry the offense? I do assume Alabama will get revenge at dwelling. However Vanderbilt goes to make it tough. — Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 27.
Crawford (Vanderbilt +13.5): Vanderbilt’s not going to beat Alabama for a second straight 12 months, however this line feels disrespectful to the Commodores. Understanding what Diego Pavia was in a position to do in opposition to this protection final season ought to fear Alabama followers, particularly since he is red-hot once more via 5 video games. Vanderbilt’s been beating the opposition by greater than 4 touchdowns per sport this fall, however that adjustments this weekend. — Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 27.
Hummer (Miami -5.5): That is going to be a enjoyable check for Miami’s revamped protection. It takes a lot self-discipline to play Florida State’s offense led by Gus Malzahn and Tommy Castellanos, and the Hurricanes have traditionally (and at occasions this 12 months) had points with busts and tackling. On the similar time, I am not notably optimistic about Florida State’s protection producing a lot strain in opposition to what’s the greatest O-line in faculty soccer. Each these groups are good. However Miami has the higher roster and has the benefit of coming off a bye. Give me the Hurricanes. — Miami 35, Florida State 28.
Crawford (Miami -5.5): I used to be admittedly shocked Virginia had as a lot success offensively because it did in opposition to the Seminoles, which resulted in an inexcusable street loss for Mike Norvell regardless of a large expertise benefit. Right here, it’s Miami’s flip to flex its roster after an open date. Can Florida State block this Hurricanes’ entrance? That is the place the sport will likely be received. Pressuring Castellanos is vital for the unbeaten Hurricanes. — Miami 27, Florida State 20.
