Beforehand, we reported that U.S. oil manufacturing has maintained its upward trajectory within the present yr whilst oil costs have remained depressed. In keeping with information from the Power Data Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil manufacturing hit an all-time excessive of 13.58 million barrels per day (mb/d) in June 2025, exceeding the earlier report set in October 2024 by 50 thousand barrels per day (kb/d), and the pre-COVID November 2019 excessive by 582kb/d. Commodity specialists at Commonplace Chartered have predicted that U.S. manufacturing will proceed to develop earlier than peaking at 14.34 mb/d in March 2026.
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And now commodity specialists have reported that world crude exports are repeatedly taking out new highs. World power marketing consultant FGE estimates that world crude exports elevated by 0.7 million barrels per day in September from August ranges to 40.4 mmb/d, a slight uptick from August’s 0.6 mmb/d m-o-m acquire.
The rise, in keeping with FGE, was largely pushed by rising shipments from Saudi Arabia (+358 kb/d) and Iraq (+120 kb/d) following the tip of the crude burning season (heightened direct use of crude for energy era), coupled with the ramp-up of the Yellowtail challenge in Guyana (+76 kb/d). FGE has predicted that this development will proceed in October, with loadings set to extend by 0.6 mb/d to 41 mb/d amid mounting provide size within the Atlantic Basin.
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Main the cost can be loadings from Brazil (+120 kb/d) and Guyana (+29 kb/d), setting contemporary report highs. In the meantime, flows from the Center East (+400 kb/d) are set to extend additional, led as soon as once more by Saudi Arabia. Nonetheless, Iranian crude loadings are anticipated to proceed declining, sinking to a brand new multi-month low of 1.4 mb/d (-100 kb/d) in October.
Supply: FGE NexantECA
Nonetheless, FGE has predicted that the continued freight rally will regularly cool off. Over the previous few weeks, VLCC freight prices to Asia have surged, suggesting that the marginal market stays firmly within the East. Export tendencies are being pushed by Atlantic Basin size and the necessity for these barrels to arbitrage east. Constitution charges for very giant crude carriers (VLCCs) transporting crude from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia has jumped to $70,000 per day in latest weeks, with VLCCs taking part in the Center East to China route going as excessive as $100,000 per day.
FGE stays bullish on freight within the close to time period, however says late-October/early-November will probably see the Asian market beginning to really feel bloated by the surge of inbound Atlantic Basin arbitrage flows. Additional, the analysts see the Asian market flipping into contango with Asia’s urge for food for crude waning and OPEC+ manufacturing unwinds, contributing to size in world crude balances. This can result in storage economics starting to compete with export economics, and the marginal marketplace for Atlantic Basin crude shifting away from the East and in direction of the West, thus ending the freight rally.
