NFL predictions: Playoff implications for Chiefs vs. Jaguars on Monday Evening Soccer from confirmed mannequin

After ending a four-year playoff drought in 2022 by successful the AFC South title with a 9-8 file, the Jacksonville Jaguars completed with the identical mark the next season however positioned second within the division and didn’t qualify for the postseason. Issues went south for the group final 12 months as they went 4-13 and have been with out quarterback Trevor Lawrence for seven video games attributable to a shoulder damage and a concussion.

Because of the dismal season, there was an overhaul to the teaching employees. Head coach Doug Pederson was fired and changed by former Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen, whereas new offensive and defensive coordinators have been introduced in.

The modifications look like working, because the Jaguars enter their matchup with the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs on Monday Evening Soccer in Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season tied with the Indianapolis Colts for first place within the AFC South with a 3-1 file. Jacksonville’s solely loss was a 31-27 street setback in opposition to the Cincinnati Bengals by which it allowed the game-winning landing with 18 seconds remaining within the fourth quarter.

Kansas Metropolis, which was embarrassed final February by the Philadelphia Eagles in its quest to change into the primary group in NFL historical past to win three consecutive Tremendous Bowls, started this marketing campaign with back-to-back losses in opposition to the Los Angeles Chargers and Eagles. The disappointing begin led many to marvel if the group’s dominance within the AFC West was coming to an finish.

However the Chiefs appear to be turning issues round as they posted victories over the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens to even their file at 2-2. Due to New York’s overcome Los Angeles in Week 4, Kansas Metropolis is only one sport behind the division-leading Chargers, and its possibilities for a tenth straight division title are very a lot alive.

With each groups getting into their Monday evening showdown having posted back-to-back wins, SportsLine’s Contained in the Strains group believes Jacksonville and Kansas Metropolis every have a strong probability to make the playoffs. However its projection mannequin, which simulates each NFL sport 10,000 instances, is extra assured within the Chiefs because it sees them reaching the postseason properly over 84% of the time and the Jaguars in simply over 57% of its simulations.

The ITL group’s mannequin has crunched the numbers for Monday’s contest at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, in addition to each NFL sport for the rest of the season, and its simulations say a loss by the Chiefs would not be devastating to their playoff outlook. Ought to it drop to 2-3, Kansas Metropolis’s postseason possibilities would drop to simply over 69%.

In accordance with the mannequin, the Chiefs qualify for the playoffs in nearly 88% of its simulations with a victory, making it lower than a 19% distinction between a win and a loss. Nonetheless, the mannequin says Jacksonville’s distinction could be extra important, because the Jaguars’s playoff possibilities would improve to nearly 71% with a victory however fall to simply underneath 48% with a loss on Monday evening.

In the meantime, neither membership’s possibilities for a division title are excellent in the mean time, as they each are just below 33%, and can worsen by greater than 10% with a loss on Monday. The mannequin sees Kansas Metropolis’s possibilities dropping to lower than 23% with a loss and Jacksonville’s dipping beneath 28%.

With a victory in Week 5, the mannequin says the Chiefs win the AFC West in additional than 38% of its simulations. It initiatives the Jaguars to seize the AFC South 41% of the time with a triumph.

The Jaguars are 2-0 at dwelling this season and likewise received their closing sport at EverBank Stadium final marketing campaign. However they have not fared properly wherever in opposition to the Chiefs of late, shedding every of the final eight conferences between the groups — together with within the 2022 AFC Divisional Spherical of the playoffs.

Kansas Metropolis defeated the Jaguars 17-9 in Jacksonville when the groups most just lately met in Week 2 of the 2023 season. Patrick Mahomes threw for 305 yards and a pair of touchdowns whereas Lawrence accomplished solely 22-of-41 move makes an attempt for 216 yards as Jacksonville was restricted to 3 subject targets.

Each golf equipment wish to file a 3rd consecutive victory, however it will be extra useful to the Jaguars on the subject of the playoff hopes of each groups. Kansas Metropolis is a 3.5-point favourite within the newest consensus odds, and the ITL group’s mannequin is leaning towards a canopy by the Chiefs, projecting them to register a 25-20 win.