Week 6 of college football might not have as many ranked matchups as Week 5 did, but there are still plenty of intriguing games on Saturday’s slate.
Miami (Fla.) and Florida State meet up in arguably the biggest game the rivalry has seen in many years. The winner of that game will likely be in the driver’s seat to win the ACC.
I’ll be on the call for the Wisconsin–Michigan game as part of “Big Noon Saturday.” Michigan appears to have found its groove with quarterback Bryce Underwood over the past couple of games after its Week 2 loss to Oklahoma.
Let’s preview this Big Ten matchup and make some picks on how the other top games this weekend will shake out:
Both teams are coming off a bye. The last time we saw Michigan, it defeated Nebraska on the road in a 30-27 win that I think was huge for the Wolverines. It probably dominated that game more than what the scoreboard indicated, thanks to quarterback Dylan Raiola‘s Hail Mary right before halftime. The margin wasn’t indicative of the game I watched on film, and it’s a good win on the road against a Huskers team that I think is a lot better than most people.
That should be a building block for Michigan with all the youth this team has. It changed philosophically because of the Oklahoma loss, as we’re seeing Underwood get freed up, play a little looser and use his legs. That’s been a huge point of Michigan’s success over the past couple of games. This guy is an absolute threat with his legs.
Now, that doesn’t mean that he’s not good at throwing the football. He does need to become a better passer, though. Those two things are different, but the fact that he’s now kind of unleashed to run is a real threat to opposing defenses. In fact, when you talk with opposing defensive coordinators, they’ll tell you that that’s the thing that scares them the most.
Michigan’s a terrific run team in general. Even without Underwood, running back Justice Haynes has been fantastic and electric. He has been a home run hitter, but Michigan’s run game is going to get tested this week because of what people don’t know about Wisconsin — the Badgers’ run defense is the one great thing about this team. Wisconsin has the No. 1 run defense in the nation, so it’ll have to lean on that this week.
The matchup that I’m most excited to watch on the opposing side is that this Michigan defense is starting to get its legs back a little bit. Defensive back Rod Moore‘s return has been huge, as Michigan’s secondary really needed his leadership. The Wolverines are pretty good up front. They’re rotating a lot of guys, and they’re facing a Wisconsin offense that has struggled mightily. We’ll see if Badgers quarterback Billy Edwards is back for Saturday’s game, but Wisconsin is trying to develop its offensive line right now.
Alabama is a 10.5-point favorite in this game. That’s a big number for a team that — even after its win over Georgia — I’m not sure is great.
Specifically, Alabama can’t stop the run or run the football very well, but it’s winning with a great passing game. Quarterback Ty Simpson has been terrific, but this isn’t Alabama of yesteryear. This is not a team that will beat you by 30 if you have its full attention. I don’t think this game will be difficult for Alabama to get up for, though, because Vandy just took it down a year ago.
Vanderbilt’s offense comes into this one with one of the best offenses in the nation. It has the fourth-best scoring offense, averaging 49 points per game. Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia has a bit of a Haynes King feel to him — he’s just kind of a warrior. I just don’t feel like he’s going to allow this game to get away from him. He’ll run it 20 times if he needs to. He did it last year against Alabama. Because of that, you would think that he’s going to fight and scrap for like four-to-six extra first downs. Well, when you’re getting those extra first downs, you’re limiting possessions on the other side. What does that do? It doesn’t allow the opposition to build a large lead.
I can love Simpson, who I think is one of the top three quarterbacks in the sport right now, and recognize the flaws everywhere else with Alabama, who gave up over 200 yards in both the FSU and Georgia games. However, one of the things I can lean firmly on is that Alabama is terrific at home.
Pick: Alabama 31, Vanderbilt 21 (Vanderbilt +10.5)
This is a classic trap game for Texas and a matchup between two excellent defenses. Texas’ defense has only allowed four total touchdowns on the year, while Florida’s defense has only allowed five.
My question is simple: which of these two struggling offenses is going to get well? The one I think could break out is Texas. We saw it against Sam Houston. I think there are elements from that game it can lean on. I do think that Longhorns QB Arch Manning will play better. Unlike Manning’s first road test against Ohio State this year, Texas should be able to grind it out offensively against a weaker offense. If Manning doesn’t turn the ball over, Texas should be fine.
How does Florida score? Everyone has adjusted to Gators QB DJ Lagway. Last year, part of his success and part of the excitement building towards this year was the big plays and the splash plays. We haven’t seen him orchestrate and operate the system with any consistency to go create scores without the big plays. Texas is so good at taking away big plays, so I don’t see things changing for Lagway & Co. At best, I think Florida is kicking a lot of field goals.
Pick: Texas 21, Florida 12 (Texas -6.5)
This game looked a lot better entering the season than it does now, but Notre Dame is better than its ranking suggests, and its offense has been rolling since the two losses to Miami and Texas A&M. Its defense is also improving.
Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr is a star. If you haven’t watched him yet, he’s one of the three or four best signal-callers in college football. I think you can absolutely project him being a top-five or top-10 pick whenever he declares for the NFL Draft. He’s just developing, and he’s fantastic. He’s on time and on target. This offense is playing extraordinarily well, putting up 56 points in each of its last two games and running Sam Pittman out of Arkansas. Star running back Jeremiyah Love has also been getting involved for Notre Dame more recently, too.
I don’t know how the Broncos stop the Fighting Irish.
Pick: Notre Dame 48, Boise State 24 (Notre Dame -20.5)
While both these teams are undefeated, Texas Tech looks a lot different from Houston. Let’s just look at their common opponent this season, Oregon State. Texas Tech took down the Beavers in Week 3, 45-14, while Houston struggled to beat them last week, eking out a 27-24 victory.
Houston has been a nice story, but I think this could be a rude awakening, especially because there’s a clear weakness for the Cougars on offense that the Red Raiders can exploit. Houston is 134th in pressure rate allowed. That’s not good when you’re about to face a Texas Tech defensive line that’s the best in the Big 12 and one of the best in the nation. Texas Tech won the game against Utah at the line of scrimmage a couple of weeks ago, and I think the Utes have one of the best offensive lines in the country.
Texas Tech is expected to get Behren Morton back at quarterback for this game. Does it matter? No. Tech is better on offense and defense, which also ranks second against the run. It’s not like Houston will be able to run the ball either.
Pick: Texas Tech 42, Houston 17 (Texas Tech -10.5)
Where is Texas Tech in Joel Klatt’s latest CFB bracket? The Joel Klatt Show
No. 3 Miami at No. 18 FSU (7:30 p.m. ET)
This game loses a little bit of its luster because of Florida State’s loss last week, but the line (Miami -4.5) suggests that this should be an awesome game still.
While FSU got a little extra time between games, Miami is coming off a bye. Head coach Mario Cristobal and that Canes defense has had plenty of time to create a game plan against Florida State and the Seminoles’ unique style of offense led by quarterback Tommy Castellanos and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. This great Miami defense — with a player who I think is the most impactful defender of the season so far in Rueben Bain Jr. — has gotten to completely focus on FSU for two weeks. The game plan should be excellent, and I think Miami’s defense could be as good as any in college football. Florida State is second in the nation in rushing yards, but Miami has yet to allow 100 yards rushing in a game this season.
Miami’s offensive line is also incredible. Carson Beck has been the least-pressured quarterback so far in the nation this season. While Miami’s offense wasn’t great against Florida, the Canes were able to run the football when they needed to late in that game, just tiring out the Gators’ defense. That said, I like Miami a lot here.
Pick: Miami 27, Florida State 20 (Miami -4.5)
Can Miami get their third ranked win of the season? The Joel Klatt Show
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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