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There is no more “survive and advance” left in the NASCAR playoffs.
The semifinal round (Round of Eight) is here. And that means the pressure is on to win or finish top five and earn stage points. There won’t be any backing into making the Championship 4 event.
One driver has already clinched a spot to vie for the championship, and that’s Denny Hamlin — thanks to his win Sunday at Las Vegas.
NASCAR’s playoffs are based on three-race rounds (every team still competes even if not a playoff team). If a driver who’s still alive in the playoffs wins in the round, that’s an automatic bid to the next round. The four winless drivers with the fewest points are eliminated after each round.
Drivers have earned playoff points with stage and race wins, as well as based on their regular-season finishes, which are added to their point total when the points are reset at the start of each round, which can help them advance.
At the championship race, the best finisher among the four finalists is crowned champion.
The 2025 playoff tracks:
Opening Round (Round of 16): Darlington (winner: Chase Briscoe), World Wide Technology Raceway (winner: Denny Hamlin) and Bristol (winner: Christopher Bell).
Quarterfinal Round (Round of 12): New Hampshire (winner: Ryan Blaney), Kansas (winner: Chase Elliott) and Charlotte road course (winner: non-playoff driver Shane van Gisbergen).
Semifinal Round (Round of Eight): Las Vegas (winner: Denny Hamlin), Talladega (2.5-mile high-banked superspeedway) and Martinsville (0.528-mile oval). Teams have raced at all three of these tracks this year.
Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval). Teams last raced at Phoenix in March.
Here are my playoff rankings based on who has the best shot at winning the title with only eight drivers remaining in contention:
1. Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 11 Toyota
Position: First, advanced with Vegas win
2025 playoff results: Darlington, Seventh; Gateway, First; Bristol, 31st; Loudon, 12th; Kansas, Second; Charlotte, 23rd; Las Vegas, First
April 2025 Talladega finish: 21st
March 2025 Martinsville finish: First
Hamlin has advanced to the Championship Four thanks to his victory at Las Vegas. So now he has two weeks with nothing to worry about. Or maybe he has everything to worry about, as he could start thinking about how to win the championship and all the times he had a shot to win and came up short. For most, it’s a blessing to win early in the semifinal round. For Hamlin, it should be but it also could be a curse.
Prediction: Championship Four
2. Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: Second, +35 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 19th; Gateway, 12th; Bristol, 32nd; Loudon, Seventh; Kansas, Sixth; Charlotte, Second; Las Vegas, Second
April 2025 Talladega finish: Second
March 2025 Martinsville finish: Fifth
The 35-point cushion should make Larson feel good, even if Talladega and Martinsville historically aren’t his strongest tracks. He has a fifth and a third in his last two races at Martinsville, so even if Talladega doesn’t go his way, he should still have a good shot to make it to the final round.
Prediction: Championship Four
3. Christopher Bell
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 20 Toyota
Position: Third, +20 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 29th; Gateway, Seventh; Bristol, First; Loudon, Sixth; Kansas, Third; Charlotte, Third; Las Vegas, Third
April 2025 Talladega finish: 35th
March 2025 Martinsville finish: Second
Bell has put himself in a good position after Las Vegas. Even if he gets in a wreck at Talladega, he was second at Martinsville in the spring and that should be a place where JGR cars are relatively strong. He has his destiny in his own hands, and when that is the case, usually good things happen.
Prediction: Championship Four
4. William Byron
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: Fifth, -15 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 21st; Gateway, 11th; Bristol, 12th; Loudon, Third; Kansas, Ninth; Charlotte, 11th; Las Vegas, 36th
April 2025 Talladega finish: Third
March 2025 Martinsville finish: 22nd
Byron is 15 points below the cutoff. However, his Vegas performance — up until the bizarre accident where he ran into Ty Dillon — shows this team might have shaken its gremlins. Byron has finished third in his last two visits at Talladega and had to sweat out Martinsville a year ago to advance. At least he’s used to the pressure.
Prediction: Championship Four (change from eliminated in semifinal round)
5. Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: Sixth, -23 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 17th; Gateway, Third; Bristol, 38th; Loudon, Fifth; Kansas, First; Charlotte, Eighth; Las Vegas, 18th
April 2025 Talladega finish: Fifth
March 2025 Martinsville finish: Fourth
An uncontrolled tire penalty at Las Vegas ruined a potentially strong day. Like others on this list, Elliott has won at Talladega (twice) and Martinsville (once). He was fifth at Talladega earlier this year and fourth at Martinsville, and if he repeats those performances, he will have a shot at advancing. But there’s no guarantee even that will be good enough. And that type of repeat performance is easier said than done.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round
6. Chase Briscoe
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 19 Toyota
Position: Fourth, +15 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, First; Gateway, Second; Bristol, Ninth; Loudon, 10th; Kansas, Fourth; Charlotte, 14th; Las Vegas, Fourth
April 2025 Talladega finish: 15th
March 2025 Martinsville finish: Ninth
Will the 15-point buffer Briscoe has on the cutoff be enough? He heads to two tracks where he hasn’t won and has a combined three top-five finishes. He seems to be peaking at the right time and showing that, in the JGR equipment, he can run better consistently than he has previously. This will be a test of just how good Briscoe can be when the pressure is on him.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round
7. Ryan Blaney
Team Penske: No. 12 Ford
Position: Eighth, -31 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 18th; Gateway, Fourth; Bristol, Fourth; Loudon, First; Kansas, 24th; Charlotte, 13th; Las Vegas, 38th
April 2025 Talladega finish: 37th
March 2025 Martinsville finish: 11th
A flat tire and hard crash at Las Vegas has put Blaney’s back against a wall, as he likely needs to win at Talladega or Martinsville to advance. He has three career wins at Talladega and two at Martinsville (including last year) so there’s no reason to think he can’t do it. But to think he will do it is a stretch. And to think he can score enough points and see other drivers ahead of him in the standings have trouble is also a stretch.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (change from making the Championship Four)
8. Joey Logano
Team Penske: No. 22 Ford
Position: Seventh -24 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 20th; Gateway, Fifth; Bristol, Fifth; Loudon, Fourth; Kansas, 21st; Charlotte, 20th; Las Vegas, Sixth
April 2025 Talladega finish: 39th (DQ)
March 2025 Martinsville finish: Eighth
Logano rolled the dice at Las Vegas with the late two-tire stop but couldn’t get the win he needed. He has three career victories at Talladega and one at Martinsville. A three-time champion should never be counted out; if he can sniff the win, he very well could capture the trophy. But he has been living on the edge of the bubble longer than he would have liked in these playoffs.
Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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