It took 105 years, however the NFL has lastly executed it: It has reached complete parity. Nobody is nice this yr. Nobody is dangerous, and aside from the Jets, any staff can beat every other staff. The league is totally unpredictable.
I spent 5 hours final evening attempting to determine who’s really good and I got here to the conclusion that the Colts is perhaps the one good staff within the NFL. The Packers misplaced to the Browns, so that they’re out. The Payments haven’t any receiving weapons, so that they’re out. I might embody the Buccaneers, however they at all times appear to be taking part in from behind and though they’re 5-1 proper now, taking part in from behind each week would not seem to be a long-term technique for successful. I might additionally provide the Lions, however any staff that has already misplaced two of their first six video games by double digits cannot be on my “good” record.
I believe I may throw in two of the three groups on the high of the NFC West, however not all three. I wish to pass over the 49ers as a result of their accidents, however i can not as a result of they beat the opposite two 4-2 groups (Rams and Seahawks). In conclusion, the Colts are good after which you may toss in whichever two NFC West groups you wish to throw in there with them.
You understand how’s not good? The AFC North. The Browns, Ravens and Bengals have mixed to go 0-10 since Sept. 22. That is zero wins over three weeks. The Steelers may have the ability to clinch the division this week.
Within the NFC, the Eagles have not received a single sport within the month of October and so they nonetheless someway have a one-game lead for first place of their division. Like I mentioned, everyone seems to be common.
Talking of common, let’s get to my picks.
NFL Week 7 picks
Pittsburgh (4-1) at Cincinnati (2-4)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
It has now been one week because the Bengals traded for Joe Flacco, and I’ve to say, there is no such thing as a another upset in regards to the commerce than Mike Tomlin. The Steelers coach was requested in regards to the deal on Monday and he gave a really fascinating reply.
“It was stunning to me,” Tomlin mentioned. “[Browns general manager] Andrew Berry have to be loads smarter than me, as a result of it would not make sense to me to commerce a quarterback — that you simply suppose sufficient of to make your opening starter — to a division opponent that is hurting in that space.”
To me, there are two key elements to this remark:
1. Tomlin is ensuring the Browns know that they made a dumb commerce. There was no purpose to assist a division rival, however the Browns did it anyway as a result of they’re the Browns. Nothing they do is smart.
2. Tomlin would a lot slightly be dealing with Jake Browning. That does not imply he is frightened about Joe Flacco, it simply signifies that he is aware of his staff in all probability would have received by 5 touchdowns if Browning was the beginning QB for the Bengals.
As an alternative, the Steelers are getting Flacco, who provides the Bengals a puncher’s likelihood of pulling off an upset. As a matter of reality, Flacco might be the final quarterback that Tomlin wished to see this week. For one, Flacco has overwhelmed Tomlin’s Steelers 11 instances in his profession, together with a sport that got here final season whereas he was taking part in for the Colts, so I’ve to suppose that there aren’t many quarterbacks within the NFL who know Tomlin’s protection higher than Flacco.
The 40-year-old had precisely 4 days to arrange for the Packers in Week 6 and he nonetheless managed to throw for 219 yards with two touchdowns. Now, he will get a couple of extra days to arrange and he will get to face a Steelers protection that is surrendered the sixth-most passing yards per sport this yr (245.0).
And let’s not overlook, this can be a Thursday sport, which is the one spot in Tomlin’s profession the place his staff at all times appears to battle. Because the begin of the 2019 season, the Steelers are 1-5 on Thursday evening and the one win got here by 4 factors. In that very same span, AFC North groups are 11-3 when internet hosting one other AFC North staff in a primetime sport. Benefit: Bengals.
This sport is giving us the 2 oldest quarterbacks within the NFL beginning towards one another on quick relaxation. It is exhausting sufficient for a 40-year-old man to get away from bed three days after mowing the garden, however Aaron Rodgers (41) and Joe Flacco (40) must play an precise soccer sport and I am unsure if they are going to survive. (By they approach, if you happen to’re questioning whether or not two 40 yr olds have ever confronted one another earlier than, the reply is sure: Tom Brady confronted Drew Brees 3 times, however that is it).
The Bengals will probably be going with their white tiger helmet and I can by no means choose towards the white tiger helmet, so I will say the Bengals pull off the upset.
PICK: Bengals 23-20 over Steelers
L.A. Rams (4-2) vs. Jacksonville (4-2) in London
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Community)
I might like to start out issues right here by apologizing to the individuals of London on behalf of the NFL: We’re sorry for sending you so many dangerous groups (I am unsure if I am allowed to talk on behalf of the NFL, however I’ll do it anyway).
In the course of the 18-year historical past of the Worldwide Sequence, the NFL has despatched so many dangerous groups over to London that I used to be 65% positive that England was going to declare warfare on us in some unspecified time in the future. Since 2007, there have been a complete of 41 NFL video games performed in London and this sport will mark simply the SECOND TIME that each groups had a successful report going into the sport.
This yr alone, followers in London needed to sit via the Browns in Week 5 after which the Jets in Week 6. The one upside is that they did not have to look at the Browns face the Jets. Now, they’re getting a attainable Tremendous Bowl preview. OK, that is perhaps an exaggeration, however I simply wish to ensure that everybody in London appreciates this sport since, on the charge factor are going, they could get one other sport between two groups with a successful report till 2043.
The Jaguars have been one of many greatest surprises this yr and one purpose they have been successful video games is as a result of they’ve pressured extra turnovers than every other staff within the league. Though the protection has thrived within the turnover division, one factor they have not fastened is their secondary. Final season, the Jags gave up probably the most passing yards within the NFL, and this yr, issues aren’t a lot better. Heading into Week 7, the Jags are surrendering 256.3 passing yards per sport, which is the third-most within the league.
In case your protection cannot cease the move, the final individual you wish to be dealing with is Matthew Stafford. The Rams’ quarterback leads the NFL in passing yards, however which may not imply as a lot on this sport since his favourite goal (Puka Nacua) seemingly will not be taking part in. If Nacua was wholesome, I might in all probability take the Rams by double digits, however he isn’t, so I see this sport happening to the wire.
London video games are unpredictable, particularly once they contain the Jaguars, however I believe the Rams are simply the higher staff. And to be trustworthy, the Rams type of must win this sport as a thanks to each fan in Los Angeles who will probably be waking up at 6:30 a.m. PT to look at.
PICK: Rams 27-24 over Jaguars
Carolina (3-3) at N.Y. Jets (0-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
I do not suppose the oddsmakers have watched a single minute of Jets’ soccer this yr as a result of New York is someway favored to win this sport. Now, that might change this week after everybody in America with entry to a legalized playing account bets on the Panthers, however as of Tuesday morning, the Jets are favored by 1.5 factors.
In order for you a fast replace on the Jets’ season, let me give it to you: They’ve zero wins and the final time we noticed them on the sphere, they completed with destructive passing yards. It is virtually inconceivable to complete an NFL sport with destructive passing yards, however the Jets someway managed to do it with -10 towards the Broncos on Sunday. When you’re questioning how that occurred, you are taking the quarterback’s passing yards and subtract any yards the staff misplaced to sacks and that is the staff passing complete. Justin Fields threw for 45 yards, however misplaced 55 yards to sacks, and that is the way you get -10.
Over the previous 45 years, there have solely been six quarterbacks concerned in a sport the place a staff completed with -10 passing yards or much less. Let’s take a look at the record:
1980: Cardinals QB Rusty Lisch (-12)
1981: Bears QB Vince Evans (-20)
1985: Falcons QB David Archer (-22)
1987: Bengals QB Dave Walter (-13)
1998: Charger QB Ryan Leaf (-19)
2025: Jets QB Justin Fields (-10)
If you wish to stump everybody you realize with some soccer trivia this weekend, ask them to offer you simply TWO names off this record moreover Fields. I will admit, there is a 50% likelihood they could guess Ryan Leaf, however there is a zero % likelihood they are going to title anybody else. Rusty Lisch will not be even an actual title, I simply made that as much as see if you happen to have been paying consideration. Simply kidding, he is actual. And I solely know that as a result of Notre Dame benched him for Joe Montana in 1977, which ended up figuring out properly for Notre Dame.
The purpose right here is that if you happen to end with destructive passing yards, that is often an indication that it is perhaps time to blow issues up and begin over on offense, however the Jets do not have time to do this this week, so they are going to be rolling out the identical offense towards Carolina.
The Jets may even be rolling out the identical protection, which really is perhaps the larger drawback. The Jets have surrendered 130 yards per sport on the bottom this yr, and this week, they must face the most popular operating again within the NFL: Rico Dowdle. There are solely two video games within the ENTIRE NFL this yr the place a participant has rushed for greater than 175 yards and Dowdle has BOTH of them, and so they each got here previously two weeks.
I do not know the way it occurred, however Rico Dowdle immediately morphed into the very best operating again within the NFL. There’s one factor that is type of scaring me away from choosing the Panthers and that is the truth that they’re 0-3 on the street this yr and so they’ve been outscored by a mean of 16.7 factors in these video games. On the flip aspect, the Jets are 0-3 at MetLife and so they’ve been outscored 101-64 in these video games. I am beginning to suppose that there is a 50% likelihood this sport ends in a tie.
PICK: Panthers 20-16 over Jets
New England (4-2) at Tennessee (1-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
This is perhaps my favourite sport of the week 7: We have now the Titans outdated coach (Mike Vrabel) going up towards the Titans’ interim coach (Mike McCoy) as a result of the man who was employed to switch Vrabel (Brian Callahan) solely lasted 23 video games earlier than being fired on Monday. Possibly the Titans ought to have simply saved Vrabel.
I am unsure what the most important loss is in Titans’ historical past, however I’ve to suppose that Vrabel goes to wish to high it when he makes his return to Tennessee on this agme. Vrabel spent six years because the coach of the Titans and though he by no means had a franchise quarterback, he nonetheless managed to cause them to the playoffs 4 instances and that features a 2021 season when the Titans completed with the No. 1 general seed within the AFC.
I am unsure if your complete AFC had a post-COVID hangover or what, however Vrabel’s Titans acquired the highest seed over the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, the Ravens with Lamar Jackson, the Payments with Josh Allen and the Bengals with Joe Burrow. With Ryan Tannehill as his quarterback, Vrabel coached the Titans to the TOP SEED IN THE AFC (I can not emphasize this sufficient). Actually, the NFL ought to have invented a coach of the millennium award on the spot in 2021 and given it him that yr.
Two years later, the Titans determined to fireside him and the group has been falling aside ever since. Final yr, they went 4-13 of their first season with out Vrabel, and this yr, issues aren’t going a lot better. The have the worst offense within the NFL: The Titans rank lifeless final in yards per sport (232.3) and second-to-last in factors per sport (13.8).
The protection has been hanging on by a thread, however whenever you’re caught on the sphere for practically 33 minutes ever sport, it is exhausting to be good. Then again, Vrabel is constructing a powerhouse in New England and the inspiration of that home is Drake Maye. He is been one of many 10 finest quarterbacks within the NFL this yr and he is solely getting higher each week.
Keep in mind that record that Justin Fields was on in my Panthers-Jets choose? Nicely that is the other of that. These are names that everybody has heard of. Being on this record is spectacular.
I believe Maye goes t have an enormous sport and the Patriots are going to roll. And only for the report, I went forward and appeared up and the worst loss in Titans’ historical past, and fittingly, it really towards the Patriots: New England beat them 59-0 again in 2009.
I do just like the Patriots on this sport, however not by 59 factors.
PICK: Patriots 34-13 over Titans
Indianapolis (5-1) at L.A. Chargers (4-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
For the second time in three weeks, the Colts are headed out to southern California. When you’re scoring at residence, the Colts are 0-1 when taking part in in Los Angeles this yr and 5-0 when taking part in anyplace else. The Colts misplaced to the Rams again in Week 4, however that solely occurred as a result of Adonai Mitchell forgot the foundations of soccer.
If the Colts are going to win this sport, they should do three issues:
1. Do not fumble the ball out of the again of the tip zone
2. Make certain everybody makes it safely via pregame warm-ups (For many groups, this is not a problem, however for the Colts, it apparently is).
3. Do not let Justin Herbert throw for 600 yards.
The Colts have been probably the most shocking staff within the NFL this yr, but when they’ve one weak spot, it is their capacity to cease the move. In Week 6, Jacoby Brissett, who had not began a sport in over a yr, went out and threw for 320 yards on the Colts. It was Brissett’s first 300-yard passing sport since November 2022. If Brissett can high 300 passing yards on the Colts, then anybody can.
After all, even when Justin Herbert does go off, the Colts have an offense that may sustain in a shootout and I am totally anticipating a shootout. I am 6-0 choosing Colts video games this yr and I am placing all of it on the road by taking Indiana Jones in his return to L.A.
PICK: Colts 34-27 over Chargers
NFL Week 7 picks: All the remaining
Bears 24-16 over Saints
Browns 20-17 over Dolphins
Chiefs 31-20 over Raiders
Eagles 23-16 over Vikings
Broncos 19-16 over Giants
Commanders 38-31 over Cowboys
Packers 27-17 over Cardinals
Falcons 24-20 over 49ers
Lions 30-23 over Buccaneers
Seahawks 27-23 over Texans
BYES: Ravens, Payments
Final Week
Greatest choose: Final week, I predicted that the Steelers would rating precisely 23 factors and beat the Browns and guess what occurred? The Steelers scored precisely 23 factors and beat the Browns. If I’ve realized something from watching the NFL for all these years, it is that if the Browns are taking part in in Pittsburgh, they’re assured to lose. As a matter of reality, the Browns have now misplaced 22 straight video games in Pittsburgh: They have not gone on the street to beat the Steelers since 2003. That is proper, the final time the Browns received in Pittsburgh, the iPhone did not exist, YouTube hadn’t been invented but and other people have been nonetheless printing out instructions on MapQuest. I miss MapQuest.
Worst choose: If there’s one rule it’s best to at all times observe when making NFL picks, it is this: By no means choose the towards the Chiefs in a house primetime sport in the event that they’re coming off a loss. I broke that rule in Week 6 and I paid dearly for it. After the Chiefs misplaced to the Jaguars in Week 6, I assumed it was throughout for the Chiefs. I assumed the Lions would go into Arrowhead Stadium and drive a stake via the guts of Kansas Metropolis’s dynasty with a Sunday evening win. I assumed Patrick Mahomes would retire and that we might by no means hear from him once more, however I used to be unsuitable. As an alternative, the Chiefs received so handily that I may need now satisfied myself that they are the very best staff within the AFC. I’ll go forward and add them to my “Good” record.
Lastly, if you happen to guys have ever puzzled which groups I am really good at choosing, I’ll begin sharing that info with you now that we have six full weeks of knowledge. This is a fast have a look at my finest groups in relation to picks this yr.
Groups I am 6-0 choosing this yr (Straight up): Colts
Groups I am 5-1 choosing this yr (Straight up): Jets, Bengals, Titans, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals, Steelers (4-1), Texans (4-1)
Picks Report
Straight up in Week 6: 9-6
SU general: 58-34-1
Towards the unfold in Week 6: 6-9
ATS general: 41-52
You will discover John Breech on Fb or Twitter, and if he isn’t doing a type of issues, he is in all probability printing out some MapQuest instructions as a result of that is how he’ll get locations any further.
