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Money

Spotify tops Q3 earnings estimates as margins rebound and value hike hypothesis builds

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Last updated: November 4, 2025 11:33 am
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Spotify tops Q3 earnings estimates as margins rebound and value hike hypothesis builds
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Spotify (SPOT) shares rose in early premarket buying and selling on Tuesday after the audio big reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter outcomes, topping analyst estimates on income, margins, and person development whereas providing blended steering for the fourth quarter.

The inventory has climbed roughly 70% up to now yr, pushed by value hikes, a leaner price construction, and optimism surrounding AI-driven product innovation. Shares presently commerce close to $650, off their document closing excessive of about $775 earlier this yr.

The audio streaming big posted income of 4.27 billion euros, barely above Bloomberg consensus expectations of 4.23 billion euros and up from 3.99 billion euros a yr in the past.

Adjusted earnings per share got here in at 3.28 euros, nicely forward of the 1.98 euros anticipated and sharply larger than final yr’s 1.45 euros.

Month-to-month lively customers (MAUs) climbed to 713 million, beating estimates of 711 million, whereas premium subscribers totaled 281 million, according to forecasts and up from 252 million a yr earlier.

Advert-supported customers rose to 446 million, topping 402 million final yr.

Trying forward, Spotify forecast fourth-quarter income of 4.5 billion euros, barely beneath analyst expectations of 4.57 billion euros, citing forex headwinds. The corporate expects month-to-month lively customers to achieve 745 million, forward of consensus estimates of 740 million, and premium subscribers to whole 289 million, roughly according to forecasts.

“Total, we’re more than happy with our efficiency heading into year-end and think about the enterprise as nicely positioned to ship development and enhancing margins in 2025 as we reinvest to help our long-term potential,” the corporate mentioned within the earnings launch.

Spotify inventory has climbed roughly 70% up to now yr, helped by value hikes, price cuts and AI optimism. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photograph · REUTERS / Reuters

The report follows a disappointing second quarter when Spotify posted a quarterly loss and missed income expectations. On the time, CEO Daniel Ek acknowledged the near-term weak spot however reiterated confidence in Spotify’s long-term trajectory, saying he nonetheless expects 2025 to be a “standout yr.”

The report additionally comes as Ek, who based the corporate, prepares to step down as CEO on the finish of the yr, transitioning to govt chairman efficient Jan. 1, 2026.

Longtime lieutenants Gustav Söderström and Alex Norström will take over as co-CEOs, formalizing a construction that Spotify says has already been in place since 2023. Wall Road has largely welcomed the transfer, viewing it as an indication of management continuity.

On the firm’s 2022 Investor Day, Spotify set seemingly lofty aims that included long-term gross margin targets between 30% and 35%. On the time, the corporate had been struggling to show a revenue, with its gross margin caught at round 25%.

These developments started to reverse in 2024 as the corporate raised costs for the second time in lower than a yr and launched a higher-priced audio “bundle” that features music, podcasts, and audiobooks. It additionally rolled out an audiobooks-only plan and a music-only streaming tier in an effort to cater to quite a lot of shoppers.

Learn extra: Reside protection of company earnings

Margins hit a document 32.2% within the fourth quarter of final yr earlier than easing to 31.6% in Q1 and 31.5% in Q2, weighed down by advert seasonality and better content material prices. In Q3, margins improved to 31.6%, topping expectations for 31.1% and exceeding Spotify’s personal steering, pushed by stronger advert income and continued price self-discipline.

Trying forward, the corporate expects gross margin to climb to 32.9% in This fall, topping forecasts of 32.5% as advert development helps offset larger content material prices. Working earnings is projected at 620 million euros, additionally above consensus estimates of 605 million euros.

After a yr of outsized features, the slower tempo of margin growth was largely anticipated, with analysts noting enhancements would naturally reasonable following final yr’s 500-plus basis-point soar.

Just lately renewed offers with main labels are additionally including stress to content material prices for Spotify, although Wall Road stays upbeat on Spotify’s long-term profitability outlook heading into 2026.

“Traders proceed to anticipate a US value improve [in the fourth quarter of 2025 or first quarter of 2026],” Citi analyst Jason Bazinet wrote in a latest be aware, including that Spotify’s margins might develop in 2026 if wholesale music prices rise lower than anticipated.

Though a possible US value hike might price Spotify just a few factors of market share if rivals don’t observe swimsuit, it will nonetheless carry margins so long as label prices stay contained subsequent yr, based on Bazinet, who maintained a Impartial score and $750 value goal on the shares.

Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Observe her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and electronic mail her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com

Click on right here for the newest inventory market information and in-depth evaluation, together with occasions that transfer shares

Learn the newest monetary and enterprise information from Yahoo Finance



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