Latino voters overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates in Tuesday’s elections, largely reversing historic positive factors President Trump made in 2024 with this key demographic.
Mr. Trump was an element for voters usually, throughout Virginia, New Jersey, and California, based on CBS Information exit polls — many stated they voted in these races to oppose him.
In New Jersey, 68% of Latino voters supported Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill, serving to her defeat Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who was endorsed by Mr. Trump. Sherrill carried Latino women and men alike, and even flipped 18% of Latino Trump voters.
Each New Jersey county voted extra Democratic than within the 2024 presidential election. And Democrats swept the ten counties the place Latinos make up at the least 20% of the inhabitants, increasing on their 2024 margins and flipping counties that Mr. Trump gained in 2024.
In 2024, Mr. Trump made important inroads in closely Latino cities like Passaic with a 70% Latino inhabitants. He elevated his vote margin by over 30 factors and flipped the county, changing into the primary Republican to win the presidential vote there in over 30 years.
This 12 months, these communities swung laborious the opposite approach, reversing Republican positive factors. Passaic flipped again to the Democratic column, giving Sherrill the identical vote share Joe Biden loved there in 2020. And in each Paterson and closely Latino Prospect Park, Sherrill did even higher.
“The factor that stands out essentially the most to me is the quantity of swing from Republican to Democrat in only one 12 months,” stated Chuck Rocha a Democratic political strategist and CBS Information contributor. “We noticed the swing of Latinos to the proper slowly, progressively over the past 10 to 12 years, however on Tuesday night time it was an actual snapback — virtually again to pre-Trump numbers of Latino performances for Democrats.”
In 2024, Mr. Trump obtained a better share of the Latino vote than another Republican presidential candidate in historical past. He gained 46% of the Latino vote, coming very near former Vice President Kamala Harris’ vote share of 51%, based on CBS Information exit polling. This was a dramatic enchancment from Mr. Trump’s exhibiting of 28% in 2016.
A precinct-level evaluation of Passaic County reveals the kinds of locations that shifted dramatically. About 16% of the county’s precincts flipped from backing Mr. Trump final 12 months to Sherrill this 12 months, with no flips within the different course.
Furthermore, it was areas with bigger Latino populations that noticed the largest swings left. Whereas some Latino Trump voters switched to vote Democratic this 12 months, these shifts are additionally attributable to modifications in turnout. Locations with extra Latinos noticed larger churn within the citizens: that’s, extra of their 2024 voters skipped voting this 12 months, and lots of of them had been changed with new voters who did not vote final 12 months (based on voter file knowledge on this 12 months’s advance voters).
Throughout the three cities talked about above, together with Clifton, wards with extra Latino residents each noticed extra churn and shifted extra towards Democrats. Taken collectively, these knowledge factors and CBS Information exit polling recommend that lots of Trump’s Latino voters stayed house, whereas others switched sides, and new voters broke closely Democratic.
In Virginia, Hispanic voters additionally swung for Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, who gained 67% of their vote throughout the state. Mr. Trump made massive positive factors in Manassas and Manassas Park in 2024, that are greater than 40% Latino. In 2025, these two areas turned out for Spanberger.
“Actually with the Latino group, financial points, kitchen desk points, are all the time entrance of thoughts and all the time heart within the selections they’re making,” stated Democratic Nationwide Committee Chair Ken Martin of the attraction of Democratic candidates to Latinos. “You add on prime of that, the truth that for a lot of elements of this nation, the Latino group has been terrorized with these mass thugs from ICE going out and indiscriminately pulling Latino from their automobiles.”
In keeping with CBS Information exit polls, 65% of Virginia Latino voters disapprove of Mr. Trump, with the economic system rating as their highest precedence.
In New Jersey, 57% of Latino voters disapprove of Mr. Trump, and 53% really feel the economic system is just not in good condition. On immigration, six in 10 Latinos really feel the president’s immigration actions have gone too far, and an identical quantity say the state’s subsequent governor shouldn’t cooperate with him.
“I predicted this was going to occur as soon as the economic system didn’t enhance and as soon as they began not deportation — however as soon as they began deportations of non-criminal aliens and racial profiling — that there was gonna be a snapback,” stated Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona, who campaigned for each Spanberger and Sherrill.
“It is the identical factor I noticed in Arizona as soon as there was racial profiling with Sheriff Joe Arpaio. You noticed a mass mobilization of Latinos going out to not simply shield themselves or shield their households,” Gallego advised CBS Information, making reference to the previous Maricopa County sheriff and anti-immigration hardliner. In 2024, Gallego gained his U.S. Senate race, changing into Arizona’s first Latino senator, as Mr. Trump gained the state that 12 months, largely on the energy of his outsized assist from Latino male voters.
In a latest UnidosUS bipartisan survey, 41% stated they feared they or somebody near them is likely to be arrested by federal immigration brokers, regardless of having authorized standing.
“Sadly Latinos are leaving the Republican social gathering after giving us a monumental likelihood in 2024,” GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar stated in a video posted on X after Tuesday’s elections. She known as the outcomes “a get up name” for the Republicans.
“I’ve stated it earlier than, the Hispanic vote is just not assured: Hispanics married President Trump, however they’re solely relationship the GOP,” Salazar stated.
The president stated Wednesday, “I do not assume it was good for Republicans,” relating to the election outcomes. “In the event you learn the pollsters, the shutdown was an enormous issue, unfavourable for the Republicans.”
The 2025 races garnered nationwide consideration as an early take a look at of voter sentiment about Mr. Trump’s second time period and the power of Democrats to counter Republicans forward of the subsequent 12 months’s pivotal midterm elections.
Republicans have engaged in mid-decade redistricting in Texas, Missouri and North Carolina, on the behest of Mr. Trump, attempting to spice up GOP possibilities of successful seats and retain management over the Home of Representatives.
In Texas, Republicans redrew 5 Democratic congressional districts — together with two in South Texas that might be aggressive in 2026. Former Republican Rep. Mayra Flores is working for one of many newly drawn seats, Congressional District 34, and says she hopes to compound Mr. Trump’s 2024 historic positive factors.
In a telephone interview, she praised Mr. Trump’s second time period, however stated, “Our focus must proceed on bringing down the price of residing and bettering the economic system as a result of the American persons are struggling to stay.”
Flores says Latino voters in South Texas largely supported Mr. Trump in 2024 as a result of they needed extra border safety, and she or he believes the GOP will be capable to maintain onto their votes subsequent 12 months.
Within the 2025 fiscal 12 months, which simply led to September, illegal crossings alongside the U.S.-Mexico border plummeted to the bottom annual stage for the reason that early Nineteen Seventies, because of the Trump administration’s sweeping crackdown on unlawful immigration.
“We see firsthand what it appears like to not have regulation and order, and that’s the reason Hispanics voted for President Trump,” Flores stated. “We needed regulation and order and proceed to need regulation and order now greater than ever.”
