China’s AI inventory rally has room to run as valuations lag US giants, Goldman Sachs says

The unreal intelligence-led inventory rally in China is way from a bubble, because the nation’s know-how companies nonetheless have room to broaden valuations and earnings via their deal with functions, in accordance with Goldman Sachs’ chief China fairness strategist.

China’s strategy to investing extra capital in AI functions versus the US technique of specializing in computing energy gave buyers “consolation that its AI monetisation functionality could possibly be higher, no less than within the brief time period”, Kinger Lau mentioned in an interview on Thursday.

“The important thing query is how firms monetise the demand for AI-related merchandise,” he mentioned. “Relative to the US, Chinese language firms centered on functions are nonetheless buying and selling at rather more cheap valuations.”

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His remarks come amid rising jitters of a worldwide AI bubble, with surging shares and huge investments seemingly racing forward of fundamentals. Optimism round China’s ascent as an AI superpower has intensified since start-up DeepSeek launched environment friendly low-cost fashions and Huge Tech companies launched new AI instruments.

Kinger Lau, chief China fairness strategist at Goldman Sachs. Picture: Dickson Lee alt=Kinger Lau, chief China fairness strategist at Goldman Sachs. Picture: Dickson Lee>

“China’s AI inventory growth is way from a bubble from a valuation perspective,” Lau mentioned. The highest 10 tech firms in China have a mixed market capitalisation of US$2.5 trillion, whereas their US counterparts are at US$25 trillion – a tenfold distinction. These US firms additionally symbolize about 40 per cent of the S&P 500 market capitalisation, whereas their Chinese language friends account for about 15 per cent of the broader group.

“The AI story will play out in China,” Lau mentioned. “The AI funding cycle, which is round 18 months behind the US, has extra room to develop and translate into earnings and income development.”

The theme was additionally a key focus of China’s newest five-year plan – the nation’s most important financial and social highway map, which met 90 per cent of its development and growth targets over the previous 5 plans – in accordance with Goldman Sachs’ analysis.

“China’s bull market will prolong, however the tempo of the rise will seemingly reasonable, as subsequent 12 months’s driver shifts from a number of growth to earnings restoration,” Lau mentioned.

The US funding financial institution forecast Chinese language firms’ earnings to develop 12 to 13 per cent subsequent 12 months, an acceleration from the two to three per cent predicted this 12 months.

Valuation re-rating would reasonable to about 5 to 10 per cent after the MSCI China Index logged a 48 per cent price-to-earnings development from a low in late 2022. The financial institution forecast a 30 per cent upside for Chinese language shares by 2027.

Earnings development would profit from AI investments, the nation’s total gross home product development, anti-involution insurance policies and Chinese language firms’ international growth, in accordance with Lau.

“Chinese language firms are increasing aggressively globally and producing round 15 per cent of their revenues abroad, in contrast with 30 per cent for US firms, leaving room to develop market share additional,” he mentioned.

Sturdy cash flows from home and worldwide buyers would additionally contribute to a sturdy bull run, Lau added.

Southbound internet influx was more likely to hit one other document subsequent 12 months after reaching an all-time excessive of US$130 billion this 12 months. Retail buyers would proceed diversifying their portfolios from the property market, whereas institutional cash heeded the requirement to allocate extra into onshore equities, Lau mentioned.

“World buyers who’re much less delicate to political or geopolitical tensions are more and more open to exploring alternatives in China, recognising compelling development potential, particularly in know-how and AI,” he mentioned.

Lau mentioned that regardless of the political narrative limiting US investor urge for food for China, the financial institution’s shoppers from rising markets similar to Mexico, Chile and the Center East have been actively pursuing Chinese language property, viewing China’s know-how sector as essential for long-term development and diversification.

This text initially appeared within the South China Morning Submit (SCMP), probably the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for greater than a century. For extra SCMP tales, please discover the SCMP app or go to the SCMP’s Fb and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Submit Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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