Harsh reality about J.J. McCarthy’s first six begins as Vikings weigh QB future

Six begins in, and J.J. McCarthy’s studying curve hasn’t simply been steep — it is forcing the Vikings to confront the very actual chance that they’ve tied their future to the incorrect quarterback.

Ten months in the past, Kevin O’Connell was named AP NFL Coach of the Yr after the Vikings received 14 regular-season video games with one-time castoff Sam Darnold. The staff determined to let Darnold stroll and put the offense within the unproven palms of McCarthy, the 2024 first-round choose. 

McCarthy missed his rookie season with a knee harm and has made simply six begins in 2025 after lacking time with a excessive ankle sprain and, most not too long ago, a concussion suffered in a Week 12 loss to the Packers. It was Minnesota’s third straight defeat, and but extra proof that McCarthy is not near being a franchise quarterback. 

Darnold, in the meantime, signed a three-year, $105 million deal in Seattle and has the Seahawks at 9-3 after a decisive Week 13 win over … Minnesota — a recreation throughout which the Vikings had been pressured to start out undrafted rookie Max Brosmer with McCarthy nonetheless in concussion protocol. 

It is not shocking that McCarthy has struggled; most younger quarterbacks do. Within the NFL, the home windows are tighter, the pockets are smaller and more durable to navigate, and the sport is way sooner. What has been alarming, nevertheless, is that McCarthy seems to regress every week. 

He is battling accuracy points, would not play on time and sometimes runs himself into pressures and sacks. Whereas O’Connell and star extensive receiver Justin Jefferson have mentioned all the proper issues publicly, their physique language tells a special story throughout video games. 

And shortly, O’Connell and normal supervisor Kwesi Adofo-Mensah should resolve: Can the 22-year-old quarterback, six begins into his NFL profession, be fastened, or is it already time to hit the reset button and transfer on?

The complication: O’Connell’s phrases earlier than the season.

“I’ve thought lots about this,” O’Connell informed The Athletic again in early September. “And I’ve realized a very powerful a part of a quarterback’s growth is when it would not go proper. When there are rising pains, when there are struggles, that is when you need to buckle up and put in your big-boy pants as a coach. You need to have a clear-cut plan on how you are going to enhance: what movie to observe, what drills to do, methods to measure progress, even when it is actually small.

“It is our job as coaches to look inward first and exhaust each useful resource attainable to get these guys to play like the very best variations of themselves.”

O’Connell is not incorrect. Too typically, organizations surrender on quarterbacks too quickly, and so they personal a lot of the blame. None of that modifications the truth that McCarthy has been traditionally unhealthy to start out his profession. The truth is, the numbers are one way or the other much more damning than the attention take a look at.

The numbers affirm the nightmare

Eye take a look at apart, the information is even harsher — and it places McCarthy in a class reserved for the NFL’s greatest quarterback misfires.

Stacked towards each first-round QB since 2016 who noticed constant enjoying time of their first two seasons, McCarthy’s first six begins paint a stark image. He ranks thirty fourth out of 35 QBs in EPA per dropback (-0.34), thirty second in completion proportion (54.2%),  thirty fourth in turnover-worthy throws (7.5%), and useless final in interceptions (10) and passer score (57.9). 

(In its easiest type, EPA per dropback is the typical variety of factors a quarterback creates [or loses] for his staff each time he drops again.)

* Jordan Love did begin one recreation as a rookie, however did not make his subsequent begin till Yr 3; Trey Lance solely made 4 begins in his first two seasons; and Paxton Lynch made 4 complete NFL begins in his profession.

There’s extra: whereas McCarthy has the very best time-to–strain numbers (2.73 seconds), he has one of many worst sack charges of all 35 QBs (11.2%, which ranks thirty first), and his sacks-per-pressure charge of 25.3% is seventh worst.  With out even watching a single snap, these metrics inform us that McCarthy holds the ball too lengthy, drifts within the pocket, and when strain lastly will get residence, he melts. He is mainly creating his personal sacks. The safety is nice; the decision-making is not. 

Agent’s Take: Did the Vikings miscalculate their quarterback selections by going all in on J.J. McCarthy?

Joel Corry

The outlier: The QB who survived a traditionally poor begin

In case you’re searching for a glimmer of hope within the desk above, Jared Goff could be it. He’s the one quarterback up to now 10 drafts to get off to a slower begin over his first six video games than McCarthy, in accordance with EPA per dropback. And like McCarthy, Goff struggled with completion proportion (53.5%), interceptions (seven) and passer score (61.7). 

To grasp how first-round quarterbacks overcome early struggles, I in contrast their first six NFL begins to their subsequent 11 — which works out to a full 17-game season.

Goff did not really turn out to be “Jared Goff, one of many NFL’s finest quarterbacks,” till his 2021 breakout in Detroit, his sixth yr within the league. However even in begins 7–17, he confirmed vital progress in comparison with his rocky first six outings.

Throughout these subsequent 11 begins, Goff posted the most important EPA per dropback enchancment of any of the 35 quarterbacks studied — almost a half-point soar. Solely Lamar Jackson (+0.35), Bo Nix (+0.33), and Baker Mayfield (+0.24) had been even shut. His completion proportion climbed from 53.5% to 61.5%, his TD-INT ratio improved from 5–7 to 16–4, and his passer score skyrocketed from 61.7 to 97.9.

The McVay Issue: Enchancment by design

Goff deserves credit score for the short enchancment, however Sean McVay’s contribution was arguably extra essential. (Goff’s first seven begins got here throughout his rookie season with head coach Jeff Fisher; begins 8-17 got here in Yr 2 with McVay, when the Rams went 11-5 and Goff made the Professional Bowl.)  Primarily, McVay made it a precedence to simplify the offense for Goff, by no means giving him greater than he might deal with. The truth is, the first-year coach would err on the facet of being too conservative over placing an excessive amount of on the second-year quarterback’s plate.

If this sounds acquainted it is as a result of it is the identical technique Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has used for younger quarterbacks — most not too long ago, Drake Maye, the No. 3 choose within the 2024 NFL Draft. (He went seven spots forward of McCarthy.)

“I at all times speak about it … you guys all had a bucket,” McDaniels informed Julian Edelman final offseason. “And yours was an enormous bucket on the finish like you can deal with no matter we gave you. Properly, if you take a younger quarterback, it is extra like a cup. …

“And when it will get to the highest you bought to cease … after which guarantee that he has this and he can do it effectively. After which, okay, so then when he is prepared for extra, then you definitely get him a much bigger cup, after which hopefully he finally ends up with a bucket. However there is not any shortcut. There is no shortcut to it. And I believe understanding the place the participant’s at is actually essential.”

The query for the Vikings is an easy one: Can O’Connell do for McCarthy what McVay did for Goff? Or what Sean Payton has achieved for Nix? Or can McCarthy discover the arrogance that has made Mayfield so profitable? Or is there a scheme that higher suits McCarthy’s skillset, very like the Ravens and Greg Roman did for Jackson early in his Ravens profession? 

Most QBs on this gap by no means climb out

The solutions to all these questions, primarily based on what we have seen by six video games from McCarthy, will not be encouraging — not even a bit of bit. Goff is the one trendy quarterback who climbed out of a gap deeper than McCarthy’s. Everybody else on this vary — from Zach Wilson to Justin Fields to Paxton Lynch — stayed caught.

Even Darnold, who received 14 video games a season in the past, and Daniel Jones, who spent the ultimate six weeks of 2024 with the Vikings, had a lot better begins to their careers.

Neither quarterback improved over their subsequent 11 begins — however they did not worsen, both. And generally simply navigating your manner by the rising pains of a full NFL season is motive sufficient to stay hopeful a few younger quarterback’s prospects for fulfillment. And even then — and as O’Connell made clear in his feedback earlier than the season – you need to be affected person sufficient to let that quarterback develop. 

Generally that occurs instantly (see Jayden Daniels, who balled out as a rookie however has struggled to remain wholesome in 2025), generally all of it comes collectively in Yr 2 (Drake Maye is a legit MVP candidate), generally it takes a number of years and several other groups for it to all come collectively (Mayfield, Darnold, Goff). And most of the time, it by no means works. 

So, sure, it is easy now to say that the Vikings made an enormous mistake letting Darnold or Jones go away. However Darnold, the third-overall choose in 2018, did not flip into one of many league’s best quarterbacks till his fourth staff and seventh NFL season. Jones, the sixth-overall choose in 2019, flashed in his fourth season (Brian Daboll’s first in New York), but it surely took one other two years and two groups for him to reincarnate himself as “Indiana Jones” with the Colts. 

Let’s revisit the primary desk above and once more have a look at these QBs with the bottom EPA per dropback over their first six begins.

Of the 12 names – all drafted between 2016 and 2025 – solely 4 are with their authentic groups. All 4 had been drafted in 2023 or later and are nonetheless on their rookie offers. (Bryce Younger, Bo Nix, J.J. McCarthy and Cam Ward, and Younger was benched two weeks into his second season earlier than regaining the job a number of weeks later, and he is remained the starter ever since) 

The seven others not named Goff? 

Mayfield lasted 4 seasons in Cleveland; Fields and Wilson lasted three seasons in Chicago and New York; Pickett and Lynch lasted two seasons in Pittsburgh and Denver; Haskins (who handed away in April 2022), did not final two full seasons in Washington; and Rosen lasted precisely one season in Arizona.

“I imagine organizations fail younger quarterbacks earlier than younger quarterbacks fail organizations,” O’Connell mentioned final fall on “The Wealthy Eisen Present.”

There’s quite a lot of reality to O’Connell’s phrases — and endurance can save a younger quarterback. However it might probably additionally sink a franchise. The Vikings must resolve which future they’re keen to guess on.