Greatest NFL Week 16 picks and predictions: ATS picks, upsets and rating projections

We’re coming right down to the wire of the 2025 common season, and Week 16 has the potential for a number of groups to punch their ticket to the playoffs. Already, the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos have their postseason spots safe, and the likes of the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, and New England Patriots can be part of them merely by pulling off wins in Week 16. 

With these heightened stakes, it is that rather more entertaining for these of us on our couches to have slightly cash on the motion. I am trying to shake off a depressing Week 15 on the betting entrance, as I went simply 1-4 in opposition to the unfold for my 5 locks. My lone win was appropriately pinpointing the Broncos to win and canopy, so we’ll look to show the tide this weekend. 

Listed here are my picks for each recreation on the docket in Week 16, with deeper drives on my 5 locks of the week that embody just a few golf equipment pulling off key division wins.

All odds through DraftKings Sportsbook.

2025 file

Locks of the Week ATS: 38-37-0
ATS: 96-127-1
ML: 138-85-1

Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, attempt without spending a dime)

Shedding Micah Parsons for the season as a consequence of a torn ACL is a intestine punch for the Packers. The star move rusher had 12.5 sacks on the season (tied for third-most within the NFL), and his absence fully modifications how we take a look at the membership’s probabilities of making a Tremendous Bowl run. It additionally modifications how opposing offenses recreation plan in opposition to them, and will make life wildly simpler for Caleb Williams and Co. as they appear to maintain maintain of the NFC North crown. 

These two rivals performed a decent matchup at Lambeau Subject only a few weeks in the past, and I believe Williams will probably be significantly better at Soldier Subject this time round. The Bears quarterback has a greater passer score at dwelling in comparison with his manufacturing on the highway (99.2 vs. 81.6), together with a superior yards per try common (7.35 vs. 6.53) and TD-INT ratio (11-1 vs. 10-5).

In the meantime, the Packers’ protection (even with Parsons) has been completely totally different on the highway. Away from Lambeau, Inexperienced Bay is giving up 25.6 factors per recreation in comparison with simply 14.6 factors per recreation it surrenders at dwelling. The Packers are additionally simply 2-5 ATS on the highway this season — a 28.6% cowl charge that’s tied for the third-lowest within the NFL. The Bears take this one to maintain management of the NFC North coming into Week 17. 

Projected rating: Bears 28, Packers 26
The choose: Bears -1.5

NFL playoff image: Rating 10 of an important remaining video games that can form 2025 postseason

Zachary Pereles

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

Girls and gents, the Saints have discovered a quarterback. Tyler Shough has turned it on in latest weeks, to the purpose the place he could also be enjoying himself into being the franchise’s starter for 2026 and forcing the entrance workplace to punt on wanting on the place this offseason. In his six begins this season, Shough is finishing 69% of his throws and has a 92.1 passer score. Extra just lately, he is led New Orleans to back-to-back wins in opposition to division rivals within the Buccaneers and Panthers.

Now, he is going up in opposition to a Jets protection that simply allowed Trevor Lawrence to put up six complete touchdowns (5 passing and one dashing), which led to the firing of defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Shough should not face a lot resistance this week, which might make it very laborious for undrafted rookie Brady Prepare dinner to maintain up in his second profession begin. 

Projected rating: Saints 26, Jets 17
The choose: Saints -4.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, attempt without spending a dime)

Each of those groups are coming off fourth-quarter collapses in Week 15, so neither is instilling a ton of confidence at this level within the NFC South race. That mentioned, I believe Tampa Bay is in a worse approach. The membership has misplaced 5 of its previous six video games and allowed 29.3 factors per recreation over that stretch. On the yr, the protection is thirtieth in passing yards per recreation allowed (246.9 yards) and in pink zone effectivity (72.2% landing charge). Baker Mayfield has additionally struggled fairly a bit on the highway, proudly owning a 1-3 file over his final 4 highway begins whereas throwing for extra interceptions (4) than touchdowns (three).

All that has me fading the Bucs on this pivotal matchup, significantly with Carolina 9-1 ATS in its previous 10 video games as a house underdog. Bryce Younger can also be a significantly better quarterback at dwelling, coming into this recreation with a 4-1 file at Financial institution of America Stadium this season with a 67.7% completion charge and a 98.5 passer score. 

Projected rating: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 21
The choose: Panthers +3

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, attempt without spending a dime)

I do not know what it’s, however I simply cannot get myself to purchase the Jaguars fairly but. Positive, Trevor Lawrence’s manufacturing final week was spectacular, and he leads the NFL in yards per try (8.6) and passing touchdowns (13) over the membership’s five-game profitable streak. Nevertheless, if you take a look at Jacksonville’s opponents, it is laborious to return away completely impressed. As an example, the six-touchdown recreation in Week 15 got here in opposition to the Jets.

This Broncos protection is a completely totally different animal, and the unit comes into this week with 58 sacks on the season (most by any workforce by means of 13 video games because the 2000 Saints). Denver can also be an ideal 7-0 straight-up at dwelling this season, additional emphasizing how powerful of an out it has turn out to be total. If the Jaguars can pull this off, I am going to begin them in a different way, however I am not anticipating that to be the case. 

Projected rating: Broncos 24, Jaguars 20
The choose: Broncos -3

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN | Fubo, attempt without spending a dime)

We pale Philip Rivers and the Colts laborious final week in opposition to Seattle, and the 44-year-old made us pay, practically pulling off the outright upset. Whereas that made for a pleasant story, I believe the Seahawks have been caught not taking Rivers and Co. critically and looking forward to their large matchup with the Rams on Thursday.

I count on Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh to dial up issues that’ll make Rivers’ life far more troublesome than it was final week. As for the Niners, they’re one of many sleeping giants within the NFC playoff image. They’ve received 4 straight video games by 10-plus factors, and Brock Purdy has began to spherical into type. San Francisco can also be 3-0 straight-up and ATS in prime-time video games this season. 

Projected rating: 49ers 30, Colts 19
The choose: 49ers -6.5

Remainder of the bunch

Rams at Seahawks (Thursday)
Projected rating: Rams 23, Seahawks 21
The choose: Rams +1.5

Eagles at Commanders
Projected rating: Eagles 28, Commanders 17
The choose: Eagles -6.5

Payments at Browns
Projected rating: Payments 27, Browns 16
The choose: Payments -10.5

Chargers at Cowboys
Projected rating: Chargers 27, Cowboys 23
The choose: Chargers +2.5

Chiefs at Titans
Projected rating: Chiefs 23, Titans 21
The choose: Titans +3

Bengals at Dolphins
Projected rating: Bengals 28, Dolphins 17
The choose: Bengals -4.5

Vikings at Giants
Projected rating: Vikings 24, Giants 20
The choose: Vikings -3

Falcons at Cardinals
Projected rating: Falcons 27, Cardinals 23
The choose: Falcons -3

Steelers at Lions
Projected rating: Lions 30, Steelers 20
The choose: Lions -7

Raiders at Texans
Projected rating: Texans 30, Raiders 14
The choose: Texans -14.5

Patriots at Ravens
Projected rating: Patriots 27, Ravens 24
The choose: Patriots +3