I am undecided what the NFL did to get on Santa’s naughty record this 12 months, however I simply seemed on the Christmas schedule and the league is unquestionably getting coal in its stocking, which is one thing I really know a factor or two about as a result of I’ve gotten coal in 11 of the previous 13 years.
The NFL is holding a tripleheader on Christmas and of the six groups concerned, 4 of them have already been eradicated from the playoffs, three of them could possibly be beginning a backup quarterback, two of them have at the very least 9 losses and solely one among them is assured to make the playoffs this 12 months (Denver). And not one of the groups can be that includes a partridge in a pear tree throughout their halftime present, which looks as if a complete miss.
Anyway, should you’re a fan of Chris Oludakun, Max Brosmer or Josh Johnson, this would possibly go down as the most effective Christmas slate of video games ever, however for everybody else, not a lot. And should you’ve by no means heard these names, that is Kansas Metropolis’s third-string QB, Minnesota’s backup QB and Washington’s third-string QB, who may all be taking part in this week.
With a slate like that, I do know what I will be doing on Christmas and it’ll doubtless contain ingesting my favourite vacation concoction of tequila and egg nog. Is it good? No. However it’s a Christmas custom and that is all that issues.
Alright, let’s get to the vacation model of the picks.
All Week 17 NFL betting strains by way of DraftKings Sportsbook
NFL Week 17 picks
Houston at L.A. Chargers (-2.5)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Community, Fubo — attempt free of charge)
Houston, we have now an issue and that drawback is that we’re 17 weeks into the NFL season and I nonetheless do not know how good the Texans are. Now, earlier than you begin sending me hate mail, Texans followers, let me end my level. I do know the Texans are good, however I am undecided in the event that they’re adequate to beat the NFL’s greatest groups on the street and that is largely as a result of they have not carried out it but.
The Texans have performed three street video games this 12 months towards groups that at the moment have 10 wins or extra they usually’ve gone 0-3 in these video games with losses to the Rams, Jaguars and Seahawks. The issue for the Texans is that in the event that they make it into the postseason as a wild card staff, meaning they will must play their opening recreation on the street and that recreation can be towards a staff that has 10 wins or extra.
My greatest situation with the Texans is that I nonetheless do not know what to make of their offense. They actually have among the best receiving threats within the NFL in Nico Collins, however even with him, the offense has been sputtering over the previous few weeks.
Houston’s offense has been held to twenty factors or much less in 4 of CJ Stroud’s previous 5 begins and that features Week 16, once they scored simply 16 factors towards a Raiders protection that had been surrendering a median of 28.6 factors per recreation within the 5 weeks main as much as Week 16 (As you could or could not have observed, the Texans really scored 23 on the Raiders, however seven of that got here on a pick-six). When you look particularly at street video games, the Texans have been held to twenty factors or much less in 5 of their six video games away from Houston this 12 months.
The Texans have gained 10 video games as a result of the protection has been carrying the offense for a lot of the season, however that is much more troublesome to do if you begin taking part in higher groups. If the Chargers can flip this right into a shootout, it is exhausting to think about the Texans maintaining and Justin Herbert would possibly simply have the ability to to do this. The Texans are 2-4 this season once they hand over greater than 190 passing yards and 8-1 once they do not. Herbert is taking part in with a damaged left hand and until he additionally breaks his different hand, I feel he tops 200 yards passing, and if occurs, that doubtless means the Chargers are going to win.
This is a crucial recreation for the Texans, however it’s arguably even larger for Los Angeles. If the Chargers win their closing two video games (Texans, at Broncos), they will win the AFC West. With Christmas this week, I’ve to suppose that Herbert Claus delivers… or is it Harbaugh Claus? I do not know, however somebody can be delivering for the Chargers.
PICK: Chargers 23-20 over Texans
Baltimore at Green Bay (-2.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Peacock)
I’m not sure what’s on John Harbaugh’s Christmas list, but I’m guessing that having a healthy quarterback is probably at the top. Unfortunately for Harbaugh, Santa Claus is not a doctor, so I don’t think he’ll be fixing Lamar Jackson’s back before this game. Harbaugh might also have a new offensive coordinator on his Christmas list and he might want to add a real estate agent to the list, just in case he loses his job and needs to sell his house.
At 7-8, Harbaugh is squarely on the hot seat and it definitely didn’t help things that Baltimore blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead against the Patriots in Week 16.
During the Ravens’ loss to New England, Derrick Henry ran for 128 yards while averaging 7.1 yards per carry. With the Ravens leading 24-13 in the fourth quarter, that would have been the perfect time to give the ball to Henry, but instead, he didn’t get a SINGLE CARRY over the final 12:50 of the game.
Henry is literally the one guy you want on your team when you’re trying to milk the clock and the Ravens didn’t even use him. It’s like the Ravens don’t even know what they’re doing anymore. That would be like Santa trying to deliver toys without Dasher on the sleigh. Everyone knows Dasher is the most important reindeer.
Normally, Jackson plays well enough to bail the Ravens out when the coaching staff makes a bad decision, but he’s been dealing with so many injuries this year that he just doesn’t look the same. I have no idea if Jackson will play on Saturday, but I’m not sure it matters. If Jackson is playing, he’s going to be banged up and if he can’t go, then Baltimore will be turning to Tyler Huntley. Obviously, Jackson is the better quarterback, but when he’s only 75% healthy, there’s not much of a drop off between Jackson and Huntley.
The Packers are dealing with their own QB issues because there’s a chance that Jordan Love might not play. Love got knocked out of the game with a concussion in Week 16 and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be ready for this game. If Love can’t go, then the Packers will turn to Malik Willis, who has actually looked impressive any time he’s been asked to run Matt LaFleur’s offense.
This is essentially a playoff game for the Ravens, because if they lose, then the the Steelers will clinch the AFC North and Baltimore will be eliminated from playoff contention. On the Packers’ end, they’ll clinch the final wild card spot in the NFC if they pull out the win.
Since LaFleur took over the Packers’ head coaching job in 2019, Green Bay has gone 11-1 in December home games. He does NOT lose on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. LaFleur is almost better than Santa at delivering in December. (By the way, how was this game not scheduled for Christmas day? if the NFL wanted a White Christmas, they should have let the Packers host a Dec. 25 game. They only have themselves to blame for their bad Christmas lineup).
The Lions could be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Vikings on Christmas day, but if they win that game, they’ll still be eliminated with a win by Green Bay here and I’m guessing there is nothing the Packers would love to do more than eliminate Lions while punching their own ticket to the postseason.
If you plan on watching Ravens-Packers, you might want to ask for a Peacock subscription for Christmas, because that’s the only way you’re going to be able to watch.
PICK: Packers 24-17 over Ravens
N.Y. Giants at Las Vegas (-1.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I know this game isn’t being played on Christmas, but the NFL needs to figure out how to flex it there, because if we’re going to be forced to watch a bunch of bad games on Christmas, I want my bad games to actually mean something and there is a lot on the line in this game.
The Raiders and Giants are currently tied for the worst record in the NFL, which means the loser of this game is going to have the inside track to landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. I’ve always thought that the NFL should have its two worst teams play the week before the Super Bowl in a battle to see who gets the No. 1 overall pick and although that’s probably never going to happen, we are getting this, which is close.
Please do not take this game for granted, because a game like this doesn’t come along very often. As a matter of fact, this will mark the first time in 44 years that the teams with the two worst records in the NFL have faced each other during the final two weeks of the season.
This is essentially the Super Bowl, but the exact opposite, because both fan bases are going to be rooting for their team to lose. I would call this the “Toilet Bowl” but that would be an insult to toilets.
Instead of the unstoppable force versus the immovable object, this game is giving us the very stoppable force (The Raiders offense) against the very movable object (The Giants defense). Heading into Week 17, the Raiders offense is averaging just 248.9 yards and 14.5 points per game, which both rank dead last in the NFL. On the flip side, the Giants have given up 373 yards per game, which is the fourth-worst in the NFL. And they’re one of five teams that has given up more than 27 points per game this season.
To me the wild card factor here is Pete Carroll. It feels like he’s on the hot seat and he’s going to pull out all the stops to win, which is kind of ironic, because if he wanted to win over the Raiders’ fan base, he would lose on purpose.
The bottom line is that this might be the best bad matchup in NFL history: The Giants and Raiders are going to try and out-tank each other, but no one is going to see it because this game will be going to only 10% of the country (Fox has the doubleheader game in Week 17, which means their 4 p.m. game is a national broadcast while the Giants-Raiders game on CBS at 4 p.m. is a regional broadcast that’s only shown to about 10% of the country).
I am 14-1 picking Raiders’ game this year and if there’s one thing I know about the Raiders, it’s this: If there’s one team that can’t even tank right, it’s probably them, which means they’re going to win a game that no Raiders fan actually wants them to win.
PICK: Raiders 27-24 over Giants
Philadelphia at Buffalo (-1.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo — try for free)
This could end up being a Super Bowl preview or it could end up simply being a game between two teams that end up choking and losing in the first round of the playoffs. Why do I say that? Because both of these teams are certainly talented enough to get to the Super Bowl, but they also both have at least one glaring weakness that could prevent them from making a Super Bowl run.
On the Bills’ end, their biggest weakness is their run defense. Heading into Week 17, the Bills have given up an average of 144.3 yards per game, which is the third-worst number in the NFL. The Browns have one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL, and yet, they still managed to put up 160 yards on the Bills in Week 16. The Bills have surrendered at least 200 rushing yards in four different games this year, which is the most in the NFL (The Giants have given up more than 200 yards in three different games and no other team has done that more than twice).
And now, the Bills are about to face an Eagles offense that has suddenly remembered how to run the ball again. Through their first 12 games, the Eagles averaged 108.5 yards per game on the ground, but over the past three weeks, that number has shot up to 174.7. Basically, the Eagles are getting hot at the right time.
If the Eagles can run the ball well, that will keep Josh Allen off the field and if Josh Allen isn’t on the field, the Bills are going to have a tough time scoring. Keeping the Bills offense off the field would be big for Philly, because the Eagles are 7-0 this season when they hold their opponent to 20 points or less. Not to mention, the Bills are 0-4 when they get held to 22 points or less.
On the Eagles’ end, their weakness has been turnovers. Philadelphia has four games this year with two or more turnovers and the Eagles have gone 0-4 in those games. If any defense out there can take advantage of that, it’s a Bills unit that has forced 20 turnovers this year, which ranks in the top eight in the NFL.
For the past few weeks, I’ve been trying to figure out if this Eagles team is going to totally collapse like they did in 2023 or get hot and go on a run like they did last year. Based on how the past two weeks have gone, I think this team is closer to the 2024 version of the Eagles than 2023.
PICK: Eagles 27-20 over Bills
Chicago at San Francisco (-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Back in August, I was one of about four media members in the entire world who predicted that the 49ers would win the Super Bowl this year and let me just say, it has been quite the roller coaster ride over the past few months. Earlier this season, they lost about half their team to injury, and at that point, I thought for sure they were cooked. And then they had a bizarre incident a few weeks ago when Brandon Aiyuk basically decided to quit the team. After that, I thought they might be in trouble, but somehow, nothing has been able to slow down this 49ers team.
Not only have they already clinched a playoff spot, but they actually control their own path to both the NFC West title and the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. If the 49ers beat the Bears and then top the Seahawks in Week 18, they’ll win the division and they’ll get homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Oh, and did I mention that the Super Bowl is at the 49ers’ home stadium? Because the Super Bowl is at the 49ers’ home stadium. So homefield advantage throughout the playoffs would take them all the way to the Super Bowl.
There’s a scenario where the 49ers could play five straight games at home over a 48-day period that starts with this game against the Bears and ends at Levi’s Stadium in Super Bowl LX. OK, I need to stop, because I’m getting way head of myself.
This is a big game for the 49ers, but it’s also a big game for the Bears, who are also still alive for the No. 1 overall seed. If the Bears win their final two games and Seahawks lose one of their next two games (at Panthers, 49ers), then the Bears will get the NFC’s top seed for the first time since 2006.
The problem for the Bears is that they’ve had some trouble stopping the run this year, which could be an issue in this game because they’re facing CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY. This feels like a game where McCaffrey could go off. If you’re facing McCaffrey in a fantasy football championship game, good luck, because he might put up 30 points. The Bears are giving up an average of 131 yards per game on the ground, which is one of the worst numbers in the NFL and I fully expect McCaffrey to take advantage of that.
Although I want to pick the 49ers, I have to say, the NFL schedule makers didn’t do them any favors here. The Bears got to play on Saturday in Week 16 and the 49ers had to play on Monday, so Chicago is getting two full days of extra rest. While the 49ers were busy trying to win a football game on Monday night, the Bears were tweeting out fan videos.
I hate picking against the Bears, because they always find some weird way to win, unless they’re playing on the road. Three of Chicago’s four losses have come on the road this year and I think we’ll be adding another one to that total after Sunday night.
PICK: 49ers 27-24
NFL Week 17 picks: All the rest
Cowboys 30-20 over Commanders
Lions 24-16 over Vikings
Broncos 31-13 over Chiefs
Jaguars 27-23 over Colts
Bengals 34-24 over Cardinals
Steelers 20-17 over Browns
Saints 27-20 over Titans
Buccaneers 23-16 over Dolphins
Patriots 27-17 over Jets
Seahawks 30-23 over Panthers
Rams 30-20 over Falcons
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Bengals would light up the scoreboard in a blowout win over the Dolphins and guess what happened? The Bengals offense lit up the scoreboard in a blowout win over the Dolphins. I was so confident that Joe Burrow was going to go off that I actually gave out some fantasy football advice even though I once made a vow years ago that I would never hand out fantasy advice again because it always backfires in my face. This time, it didn’t.
I predicted that Burrow would throw for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns and he actually topped that prediction by throwing for 309 yards and four touchdowns. If I’ve learned one thing about covering the NFL over the years, it’s that if a guy says he’s not having fun, the quickest way to fix that is to play the Dolphins. There was no way Burrow wasn’t going to have a huge game against the Dolphins.
Worst pick: Guys, it finally happened, the NFL has mentally broken me. Last week, there were three different games where a team came back from a deficit of 10 points or more in the fourth quarter, which is something that almost never happens in the NFL. Sure, big comebacks happen all the time, but three big primetime comebacks had not happened in the same week at any point over the past 25 years.
Why am I bringing this up? Because I PICKED THE LOSING TEAM IN EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE GAMES. It’s bad enough to have one impossible game go against you in a given week, but to have THREE OF THEM go against you, that’s ridiculous. I will not be going out in public this week, because with my luck, I’ll probably get hit by a bus or run over by a reindeer.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, I’ve got that very important information right here. Here’s a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picking games this year
Team I’m 14-1 picking this year (Straight up): Raiders
Teams I’m 13-2 picking this year (Straight up): NONE
Teams I’m 12-3 picking this year (Straight up): Seahawks, Jets, Titans, Colts
Longest winning streak: Raiders (14 straight games picked correctly)
Teams I’m the worst at picking: Chiefs (5-10), Panthers (6-9)
Longest losing streak: Ravens (Four straight games picked incorrectly)
Picks Record
Straight up in Week 16: 7-9
SU overall: 148-91-1
Against the spread in Week 16: 6-9-1
ATS overall: 114-124-2
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably getting mentally prepared for the Giants-Raiders game by drinking his world famous egg nog and tequila drink.
