Eli Lilly gaining in GLP-1 market over Novo Nordisk, earnings present

It is a story of two drugmakers within the red-hot weight problems drug market. 

Each Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are grappling with decrease costs within the U.S., however their 2026 outlooks are diverging sharply: Whereas Novo is bracing for a gross sales decline, Lilly sees income leaping once more because of its blockbuster medicines. 

The break up in steering — regardless of related headwinds — underscores the energy of Lilly’s place within the weight problems and diabetes drug market, underpinned by its more practical injections and early foray into direct-to-consumer gross sales, amongst different elements. Whereas Novo Nordisk successfully made the medicine mainstream, Lilly has since taken a transparent edge in market share — and the forecasts present it’ll probably solely lengthen its benefit this yr.

“The distinction in gross sales momentum and market share pattern was seen all through 2025, however the dichotomy between the 2 corporations’ prospects was accentuated inside this 24-hour interval during which Novo guided beneath consensus and Lilly guided above consensus expectations,”  Leerink Companions analyst David Risinger advised CNBC on Wednesday. 

“That actually solidified an investor’s thoughts that Lilly goes to be the dominant participant in weight problems going ahead,” he added. 

This yr, all eyes can be on how Lilly’s upcoming weight problems tablet, orforglipron, fares towards Novo’s personal oral Wegovy drug, which has had an explosive U.S. launch this yr.

In an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Field” on Wednesday, Lilly CEO David Ricks stated 20 million to 25 million sufferers are at the moment taking each corporations’ medicines. However he stated the overall addressable market of sufferers within the weight problems area is “gigantic.” 

On Wednesday, Lilly forecasted 2026 gross sales of $80 billion to $83 billion, surpassing the $77.62 billion that analysts had been anticipating, in response to LSEG. 

The midpoint of that outlook interprets to gross sales rising by 25% this yr.

In distinction, Novo warned on Tuesday that it sees gross sales and revenue declining by 5% to 13% this yr, as costs fall within the U.S. and exclusivity expires for its blockbuster weight problems and diabetes medicine in China, Brazil and Canada. 

Lilly equally pointed to a “world pricing decline within the low- to mid- teenagers [percentages] this yr.” That comes after the landmark “most favored nation” offers each corporations struck with President Donald Trump in November to slash weight problems and diabetes drug prices, together with their current efforts to additional scale back direct-to-consumer costs for his or her therapies. 

The agreements with Trump are anticipated to take a chew out of each corporations’ gross sales, however finally improve volumes of prescriptions for his or her medicine. Nonetheless, Lilly is bullish about different elements that may assist offset that pricing strain. 

That features continued worldwide demand for its weight problems drug Zepbound and diabetes counterpart Mounjaro and the anticipated launch of its GLP-1 tablet for weight problems within the second quarter, pending U.S. approval. Lilly additionally pointed to authorities Medicare protection of weight problems therapies beginning for the primary time by not less than July, one of many successful options of the drug pricing offers with Trump. 

Lilly’s Ricks advised CNBC that protection will open up entry to 40 million new Medicare beneficiaries, “and that may very well be fairly expansive to quantity.”

Total, Risinger known as Lilly’s steering “very encouraging” and stated the “worth per quantity trade-off is enjoying out properly” for the corporate.

He stated tirzepatide, the energetic ingredient in Zepbound and Mounjaro, is “superior” in its effectiveness and tolerability in comparison with semaglutide, the ingredient in Novo’s weight problems and diabetes medicine. That was confirmed in a head-to-head scientific trial carried out by Lilly in 2024, and prescription traits present that the corporate’s medicine are most popular amongst prescribers.  

“I believe that is what is driving Lilly’s market share acquire” relative to Novo, Risinger stated. 

One other issue that units Lilly and Novo aside is patent exclusivity. Whereas Novo stated expiring patents in some worldwide markets pose a problem, Lilly’s Ricks stated tirzepatide needs to be protected into “the again half of the 2030s” in main markets. 

Risinger famous that Lilly remains to be working to drive world uptake for tirzepatide, which gained U.S. approval for weight problems in 2023. 

Novo Nordisk is first to market with a GLP-1 tablet for weight problems, and it hit 50,000 weekly prescriptions in slightly below three weeks of its launch. However traders are watching to see how that shifts as soon as Lilly’s tablet rolls out to sufferers later this yr. 

In an interview with CNBC’s “Mad Cash,” Novo CEO Mike Doustdar stated he is assured in regards to the firm’s capacity to compete with Lilly. 

“Clearly we have now essentially the most efficacious weight-reduction tablet that there’s and I am very optimistic and bullish on after they include their tablet and we have now to battle this out,” Doustdar stated. 

He is referring to scientific trial information suggesting that Novo’s Wegovy tablet promotes comparable weight reduction to its injectable counterpart, which is round 15%. In the meantime, Lilly’s tablet seems to be barely much less efficient than that, based mostly on separate research information. 

Risinger stated the launch of Novo’s tablet has benefited from the truth that the corporate is leveraging the Wegovy model identify, which is recognizable by many sufferers, and instantly launched direct-to-consumer promoting for the product in early January. 

However he stated Lilly may capitalize on its tablet’s comfort benefit. 

Orforglipron is a small-molecule drug that’s absorbed extra simply within the physique and does not require dietary restrictions like Novo Nordisk’s tablet, which is a peptide remedy. Sufferers are presupposed to drink not more than 4 ounces of water with the Wegovy tablet and should wait half-hour earlier than consuming or consuming the rest every day. 

Novo contends that these necessities will not hinder uptake, however Risinger stated it may assist Lilly’s tablet finally generate better gross sales globally.