What an incredible few weeks this has been in men’s college basketball, where one of the most fascinating seasons in recent memory continues building toward what could be an unforgettable NCAA Tournament.
Earlier this month, teams ranked Nos. 1, 3, 4 and 5 in the AP poll all lost in the span of four days, with top-ranked Arizona falling twice in the same week after beginning the season unbeaten through its first 23 games. And then No. 2 Houston, which received a first-place vote in this week’s poll, was upended by No. 6 Iowa State after squandering a second-half lead on the road. Chaos reigned atop the sport.
All of which set the stage for an unbelievable pair of games on Saturday when No. 1 Michigan faces No. 3 Duke on a neutral floor in Washington, D.C. and No. 2 Houston hosts No. 4 Arizona — both matchups worthy of the Final Four. By the end of the weekend, there should finally be some clarity surrounding which teams could earn a 1-seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament. So here’s a breakdown of the likeliest candidates:
- Record: 25-1 (15-1 Big Ten)
- Rankings: No. 1 AP, No. 1 NET, No. 1 KenPom, No. 1 Torvik, No. 1 EvanMiya.com
- Best wins: Gonzaga, Villanova, Nebraska, Michigan State, Purdue
- Bad losses: None
Michigan’s Elliot Cadeau drives previous Purdue’s Fletcher Loyer (Photograph by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Photographs)
By opening a 20-point lead on the highway at No. 7 Purdue on Tuesday evening after which holding on for a comparatively comfy double-digit victory, Michigan possible moved itself inside a whisker of clinching a 1-seed within the NCAA Event barring an sudden shedding streak down the stretch. Even when the Wolverines fall in opposition to No. 3 Duke this weekend in a mouthwatering non-conference tilt, and even when they come across the highway at No. 10 Illinois later this month, the dominance they’ve proven so far amid one of the best begin in program historical past may nonetheless be sufficient for the choice committee to put head coach Dusty Might’s group on the highest line.
Michigan is the one staff within the nation that ranks among the many high 5 nationally in each offensive and defensive effectivity, and 21 of the Wolverines’ 25 whole victories this season have come by at the very least 10 factors. That is an elite staff at each ends of the ground due to Might’s shrewd roster building and the college’s aggressive NIL efforts that, sources say, are at — or very close to — the highest of school basketball. At this level, the Wolverines have the within observe towards the No. 1 general seed.
[BIG TEN: 4 Takeaways From Michigan’s Big Ten Win Over Purdue]
- Record: 24-2 (13-1 ACC)
- Rankings: No. 3 AP, No. 2 NET, No. 2 KenPom, No. 5 Torvik, No. 2 EvanMiya.com
- Best wins: Kansas, Arkansas, Florida, Michigan State, Louisville (x2)
- Bad losses: None
Duke’s Dame Sarr (Photograph by David Jensen/Getty Photographs)
Barring some form of sudden, late-season collapse, Duke can all however guarantee itself of a high seed within the NCAA Event by beating No. 1 Michigan in a marquee non-conference recreation to be performed this weekend on a impartial ground. Even when Saturday’s showdown with the Wolverines goes awry, there’s a robust probability Duke has already achieved sufficient to land someplace on the bracket’s high line.
The Blue Devils are considered one of solely three groups to rank among the many high 10 nationally in each offensive and defensive effectivity this season, in accordance with KenPom, with such a balanced strategy producing the fifth-best scoring margin within the nation at plus-19.8 factors per recreation. A trio of early season, non-conference victories over Kansas, Arkansas and Florida added some essential oomph to Duke’s résumé in a yr when the ACC solely produced three groups within the newest AP ballot, considered one of which Duke nonetheless hasn’t confronted (Virginia). Including one other such win over Michigan may very well be pivotal now that the regular-season finale in opposition to rival North Carolina, which defeated Duke earlier this month, could be performed with out injured Tar Heels star Caleb Wilson.
- Record: 23-2 (10-2 Big 12)
- Rankings: No. 4 AP, No. 3 NET, No. 3 KenPom, No. 3 Torvik, No. 3 EvanMiya.com
- Best wins: Florida, UConn, Alabama, BYU, San Diego State
- Bad losses: None
Arizona’s Jaden Bradley dribbles the ball in opposition to Texas Tech’s Donovan Atwell (Photograph by Chris Coduto/Getty Photographs)
It took till the second week of February earlier than somebody lastly cracked what seemed like an impregnable Arizona squad beneath fifth-year head coach Tommy Lloyd. By the point the Wildcats lastly suffered their first loss on the highway at then-No. 9 Kansas earlier this month, they’d already compiled a ledger that included six wins over ranked opponents and the sixth-best scoring margin within the nation at plus-19.6 factors per recreation.
However now Arizona has dropped the primary two video games in a brutal ending stretch that features forthcoming dates with No. 23 BYU (residence), No. 2 Houston (away), No. 8 Kansas (residence) and No. 6 Iowa State (residence). And whereas that assortment of opponents represents greater than sufficient expertise for the Wildcats to cement themselves as a No. 1 seed within the NCAA Event with just a few extra high-level wins, it’s additionally a essential proving floor for a staff that has — at the very least so far — performed the Huge 12’s best convention slate, in accordance with KenPom. There could be extra potential seeding variance for the Wildcats than any staff on this listing relying on how they reply within the coming weeks.
- Record: 24-2 (14-1 Big East)
- Rankings: No. 5 AP, No. 10 NET, No. 9 KenPom, No. 9 Torvik, No. 7 EvanMiya.com
- Best wins: BYU, Illinois, Kansas, Florida, Villanova
- Bad losses: None
UConn Huskies huddle throughout the recreation in opposition to the Butler Bulldogs (Photograph by Michael Hickey/Getty Photographs)
An attention-grabbing marketing campaign for the Huskies and head coach Dan Hurley appears to be unfolding in two distinct components because the common season nears its conclusion. First got here an extremely troublesome non-conference slate during which UConn established itself among the many greatest groups within the nation by scoring neutral-site wins over BYU, Illinois and Florida, plus a real highway win over Kansas. That the Huskies solely misplaced to Arizona by 4 factors at residence on an evening when starters Tarris Reed Jr. and Braylon Mullins have been unavailable as a consequence of damage highlighted the staff’s Closing 4 potential.
Subsequent got here a plunge into Huge East play that started with 12 consecutive victories and 14 wins out of 15 general coming into Wednesday’s matchup with Creighton. However seven of these wins have come by 10 factors or fewer, together with two in time beyond regulation, and that has invited questions on UConn’s ceiling provided that that is unquestionably a down yr for the convention. Getting out-muscled and outworked by then-No. 22 St. John’s on Feb. 6 uncovered a few of the Huskies’ flaws. They’ll want a greater displaying within the rematch in opposition to St. John’s at residence on Feb. 25.
[WOMEN’S COLLEGE HOOPS SPOTLIGHT: Dawn Staley, South Carolina Embrace Villain Role]
- Record: 23-3 (10-3 Big 12)
- Rankings: No. 6 AP, No. 5 NET, No. 7 KenPom, No. 7 Torvik, No. 9 EvanMiya.com
- Best wins: St. John’s, Purdue, Kansas, Houston
- Bad losses: Cincinnati, TCU
Iowa State’s Nate Heise takes a shot as Houston’s Kingston Flemings defends (Photograph by David Okay Purdy/Getty Photographs)
The Cyclones are a captivating case examine whose candidacy for a possible top-line seed rocketed to a different degree with their come-from-behind residence victory over No. 2 Houston earlier this week. Few groups across the nation, if any, can match the top-end wins Iowa State has compiled over then-No. 14 St. John’s, then-No. 1 Purdue, then-No. 9 Kansas and the Cougars. At its greatest, head coach T.J. Otzelberger’s staff can unleash a hailstorm from past the arc (fourth nationally in 3-point share) and pair it with a protection that ranks eighth within the nation for effectivity.
However of all of the packages in consideration for No. 1 seeds, the Cyclones are saddled with arguably the worst loss to Cincinnati, a staff that’s 14-12 general and sits beneath .500 in convention play. Remaining video games in opposition to No. 23 BYU and No. 4 Arizona — to not point out one other ranked opponent or two within the Huge 12 Event — imply there are nonetheless loads of probabilities for Iowa State to distance itself from that ugly end result and safe a high seed.
- Record: 21-5 (12-3 Big Ten)
- Rankings: No. 10 AP, No. 4 NET, No. 5 KenPom, No. 6 Torvik, No. 6 EvanMiya.com
- Best wins: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Purdue, Nebraska
- Bad losses: None
Illinois’ Jake Davis (Photograph by Michael Hickey/Getty Photographs)
There’s no query that the most important hurdle standing between Illinois and a possible top-line seed within the NCAA Event is an enormous residence recreation in opposition to No. 1 Michigan on Feb. 27, the results of which may even have a big impression on the Huge Ten title race. A modest assortment of opponents on both aspect of that matchup — USC, UCLA, Oregon and Maryland — make it unlikely the Illini will stumble earlier than the convention match, apart from a possible defeat to the Wolverines.
Head coach Brad Underwood and his staff have compiled an attention-grabbing résumé that’s devoid of damaging losses however solely consists of one non-conference victory over an opponent ranked within the newest AP ballot (No. 13 Texas Tech). They fell quick in different high-profile, neutral-site matchups in opposition to Alabama and UConn. But, in relation to a few of the superior metrics, Illinois is as spectacular as any staff within the nation — particularly contemplating the long-term damage to level guard Kylan Boswell, who just lately returned to the lineup. The Illini lead the nation in offensive effectivity by practically three full factors per 100 possessions, in accordance with KenPom.
- Record: 23-3 (11-2 Big 12)
- Rankings: No. 2 AP, No. 6 NET, No. 4 KenPom, No. 2 Torvik, No. 4 EvanMiya.com
- Best wins: Arkansas, Texas Tech, BYU
- Bad losses: None
Houston’s Kalifa Sakho dunks in opposition to the Iowa State Cyclones (Photograph by David Purdy/Getty Photographs)
Houston is one other staff for which the attention check and superior metrics inform a greater story than the résumé itself. Other than a formidable victory over then-No. 14 Arkansas on Dec. 20, not one of the Cougars’ noteworthy non-conference matchups aged notably nicely, with groups like Auburn, Syracuse, Notre Dame and Florida State all crumbling to various levels. All advised, Houston’s non-conference slate ranked 157th nationally, which is the second-lowest of any staff on this listing behind solely Iowa State (270th).
Nonetheless, head coach Kelvin Sampson presides over a gaggle that now ranks ninth nationally in offensive effectivity and seventh nationally in defensive effectivity, inserting Houston among the many high 25 in each classes for an unimaginable eighth consecutive season. This yr’s squad boasts extra scoring punch from freshman phenom Kingston Flemings (16.6 factors, 5.3 assists per recreation), whereas sustaining Sampson’s trademark tenacity on the defensive finish. A loss to Iowa State earlier this week heaps extra stress on the Cougars to carry out nicely in subsequent video games in opposition to Arizona (Feb. 21) and Kansas (Feb. 23) that might be intently watched by bracketologists.
