By Tim Henderson, Stateline.org
The thousands and thousands of immigrants who’ve crossed the border with Mexico since 2020 might change the stability of political energy in Congress — however in a manner more likely to increase Republican states that emphasize border safety, on the expense of extra welcoming Democratic states.
That’s as a result of most of the new immigrants joined state-to-state movers gravitating to the fast-growing conservative strongholds of Florida and Texas, boosting these states’ populations. California and New York additionally had massive influxes from the border however ended up dropping inhabitants anyway.
The vastly completely different inhabitants adjustments threaten to scramble the Electoral Faculty map.
California and different Democratic states misplaced immigration-related inhabitants positive factors when residents moved away through the COVID-19 pandemic or whereas searching for jobs and housing. The place did these state-to-state movers go? Florida and Texas, in massive measure.
Republicans have lengthy accused Democrats of encouraging immigration for his or her electoral profit.
However the shift is probably going to assist Republican-leaning states within the subsequent decade: The Structure allocates congressional illustration by inhabitants — together with noncitizens. Each 10 years, the nation counts its folks after which shuffles the variety of U.S. Home seats given to every state.
In presidential elections, every state has the identical variety of electoral votes because it does congressional representatives.
A number of specialists contacted by Stateline agreed that after the following decennial census in 2030, California is more likely to lose 4 seats within the U.S. Home of Representatives. Texas is more likely to achieve 4.
Adam Kincaid, president and government director of the GOP-founded American Redistricting Venture, stated the adjustments might dramatically alter the Electoral Faculty map, with the Midwest now not a “blue wall” towards Republican presidential victories if the area loses three seats, by his calculation.
On the plus facet for Democrats, he stated, immigration helped stem inhabitants losses in lots of blue states.
Nevertheless it’s arduous to foretell the following 5 years, Kincaid stated. Housing is dear and arduous to get in states corresponding to California and New York, he famous, whereas additionally blaming Democratic “insurance policies that drive the place folks need to stay.”
“I don’t suppose anyone rationally expects Florida and Texas to develop as quickly via the last decade as they did throughout COVID,” Kincaid stated. “We’ll all be unsuitable. These are solely forecasts and issues will change.”
Home seats
Three forecasts for 2030 — one offered to Stateline by Jonathan Cervas, an assistant instructing professor at Carnegie Mellon College; one from Kincaid’s American Redistricting Venture; and one from William Frey, a demographer at The Brookings Establishment — all present Democratic states within the Northeast and West dropping Home seats whereas fast-growing, largely Republican states within the South and West achieve seats.
Along with the illustration adjustments in California and Texas, Florida would achieve both three or 4 seats within the U.S. Home, relying on the forecast, whereas Illinois and New York every would lose both one or two seats.
Different attainable positive factors would go to Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Utah, relying on the forecast. Minnesota, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin may lose seats.
The forecasts have been developed from new census inhabitants estimates that try to indicate the place thousands and thousands of border migrants went since 2020, based mostly on courtroom information displaying ZIP codes of residence.
Florida, Texas and California every acquired round 1,000,000 immigrants, many from the border surge of 2022-2024. However California’s achieve was offset by 1.7 million folks transferring away to different states, together with Texas, whereas Florida and Texas gained from each immigration and state-to-state movers.
Equally, New York gained 750,000 folks from immigration however misplaced 1.1 million as New Yorkers moved out of state.
Get together leaders are paying shut consideration to the main points.
Republican states might achieve extra seats within the U.S. Home after decennial redistricting in 2030, assuming closely Republican states like Florida and Texas stay that manner. Extra persons are transferring to these states, together with immigrants and state-to-state movers from Democratic states.
The brand new census estimates present the lion’s share of recent immigration since 2020 going to Florida, Texas, California, New York and New Jersey. Tons of of 1000’s of migrants additionally went to different states, together with Illinois, Massachusetts, Georgia, North Carolina and Washington.
It’s seemingly that most of the migrants who landed in California and New York ended up transferring to Texas and Florida, the place there have been extra jobs and reasonably priced housing out there.
The biggest single state-to-state migration circulate between 2022 and 2024 — about 171,000 folks — was from California to Texas, in response to a Stateline evaluation of a separate Census Bureau launch. There was one other massive circulate, of about 122,000 folks, from New York to Florida.
The February state inhabitants estimates, delayed from their ordinary launch in December by the federal government shutdown in October, additionally used courtroom information to regulate immigration numbers. The U.S. Census Bureau situated thousands and thousands of asylum-seekers, parolees and different “humanitarian migrants” who entered the nation between 2022 and 2024 based mostly on the ZIP codes they offered to immigration courts.
That’s a change from 2024 estimates, when the Census Bureau added humanitarian migrants to the whole however assumed that they had gone to locations with traditionally excessive immigration.
“That assumption was handy however implausible,” stated Jed Kolko, an economist and undersecretary for financial affairs on the U.S. Division of Commerce through the Biden administration.
However because it turned out, Kolko added, “The humanitarian migrants have been extra more likely to come over the border after which settle in locations anecdotally identified for offering companies, like New York Metropolis and Denver.”
The results of sharpening the image with courtroom information: Some states acquired extra immigration added for 2020-24 (130,000 for New York, 32,000 for Colorado, 30,000 for Texas), and a few had it subtracted (104,000 fewer for Florida, 70,000 for California, 39,000 for Michigan) compared with older estimates.
5 years and past
With border crossings from Mexico at their lowest stage in 50 years in fiscal 2025, it’s arduous to chart the following 5 years and predict 2030 inhabitants, which can in the end determine Home illustration.
Including to the uncertainty is the unprecedented nature of the stress on inhabitants since 2020: pandemic restrictions and dislocations, adopted by large-scale immigration throughout a labor scarcity, a clamping down on the border late within the Biden administration, after which President Donald Trump’s mass deportation plan that was simply ramping up in mid-2025.
Frey, the Brookings Establishment demographer, agreed that “the second half of the last decade may very well be wildly completely different from the primary half,” noting that state-to-state strikes and immigration each dropped off between 2024 and 2025. That diminishes each of the drivers of Southern state inhabitants development.
“My guess is, if this continues, Texas and Florida would profit much less in Electoral Faculty positive factors,” Frey stated. If immigration stays sharply curtailed, Texas might achieve solely three seats and California might lose solely three, he stated.
The general pattern would nonetheless see fast-growing, largely Republican states getting extra congressional illustration, Frey stated. However with decrease immigration, “the distinction in red-blue state reallocation continues to be there however not as sharp as earlier than.”
State demographers in Florida and Texas say they’re unsure about what sort of development the states may see within the subsequent 5 years.
Florida estimates its personal inhabitants utilizing electrical energy utilization to gauge the variety of new residents, which exhibits more moderen development prior to now couple of years than the Census Bureau does, stated Richard Doty, a analysis demographer with the state Bureau of Financial and Enterprise Analysis on the College of Florida.
Within the coming years, Florida development might stall for varied causes, together with increased housing costs and excessive insurance coverage prices from current storms.
“Florida is now not the discount it as soon as was,” Doty stated. “The price of housing particularly is driving younger folks and retirees to different states.”
In Texas, the big drop in immigration between 2024 and 2025 — down nearly 50% from about 355,000 to 167,000 — will curb future development, stated Texas State Demographer Lloyd Potter.
“If we take a look at subsequent 12 months, I feel we’re going to see immigration to america take a really important decline, after which that’s clearly going to have an effect on Texas as a result of immigration is such an enormous a part of our inhabitants change,” Potter stated.
That may seemingly lengthen to authorized immigrants, such because the tech employees on high-skill visas who’ve moved to Texas cities and suburbs, he stated.
“There’s an inclination for potential immigrants, authorized immigrants, to maybe be a bit extra reticent now, given what appears to be taking place when it comes to immigration enforcement in america,” Potter stated.
Stateline reporter Tim Henderson will be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.
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