Al Carns, a former Special Forces commander, warns that Britain could confront Russia in a major conflict within three to five years, yet the military remains ill-equipped for modern warfare.
Military Background and Achievements
The 45-year-old joined the Royal Marines in 1999 and completed five operational tours in Afghanistan. He came close to death four times during his service, earning the Military Cross in 2011 for gallant and distinguished actions. Later, he received the Distinguished Service Order— the first with King Charles’s cypher— and an OBE.
Now serving as the Labour MP for Birmingham Selly Oak and minister of state for the armed forces, Carns spent much of his 24-year career with the Special Boat Service (SBS).
Urgent Call for Military Reform
Carns estimates the UK has three to five years to deter a significant confrontation with Russia, four years after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He states: “When it comes to deterring Russia, we have three to five years before we have to fight a significant confrontation with a major state, a geographically constrained conflict in some shape or form. And the reality is, whether we like it or not, our military in a lot of cases hasn’t changed from the Eighties and Nineties. We’ve got to move faster, and on everything.”
The Ukraine conflict marked a pivotal shift for him. Just before a promotion to brigadier, he entered politics, concerned that defense leaders failed to recognize warfare’s rapid evolution.
Drones and the Future of Combat
Carns emphasizes the frontline dominance of drones, noting that one drone matches the lethality of 22 artillery shells and causes 87 percent of Ukrainian casualties. He compares the shift to a farmer replacing a scythe with a combine harvester.
“The army and the Marines are training a sniper to shoot one round 800 metres, from the point of aim to the point of impact,” he explains. “I could train my son in two weeks to kill you from 45 kilometres away with a fibre optic drone. So have we got the balance right?”
He campaigns vigorously for expanded drone and autonomous technology use, overlaid with AI. The military that best integrates these tools, he asserts, will prevail in the next war.
Ongoing Service and Advocacy
Carns remains discreet about his Special Forces operations, describing his Military Cross as a “team event.” As a parliamentary reservist, he recently finished Arctic training in Norway.
From politics, he supports service members transitioning to civilian life, favoring “a hand up, not a handout.” A divorced father of a 22-year-old daughter and sons aged 10 and 14, he views himself as proof of how state support turns potential troublemakers into productive citizens.
