The query with Hunter Greene has by no means been expertise. And, sadly, the questions are rising louder after he revealed Wednesday that he’s coping with elbow stiffness that has his standing for the beginning of the season in query.
The excellent news is that Greene mentioned he does not have any structural injury to the UCL in his elbow that confirmed up in preliminary checks. He is going for a second opinion and a further MRI within the coming days, however as of now, it sounds just like the worst-case situation outcomes are off the desk.
The unhealthy information? Effectively, that is the harm. Greene apparently pitched by means of discomfort within the elbow late final season and had some form of injection after the season (presumably both a PRP injection to advertise therapeutic or a cortisone shot to take care of ache and soreness), and he has been identified with bone spurs within the elbow because of this. However the truth that he spent an offseason recovering from the problem and it cropped again up proper when he was ramping up for the season clearly does not bode effectively.
With Opening Day three weeks away, there are a number of issues to type by means of right here. First is learn how to deal with Greene’s worth for Fantasy drafts, and the following is how the Reds will possible deal with any time Greene misses. The excellent news is the Reds even have loads of viable depth. There isn’t any changing an arm like Greene’s, however they need to have the ability to maintain the ship afloat for nevertheless lengthy he is out.
Let’s check out what this might imply for Greene’s 2026 worth and the remainder of the Reds’ rotation:
Hunter Greene harm outlook
That is the largest query right here, clearly, but it surely’s additionally one we now have no actual strategy to reply. He might merely attempt to relaxation and rehab the elbow, however seeing as he spent a complete offseason attempting that path and instantly handled discomfort once more, does not make me tremendous assured that this path will work out. A lot – maybe most! – are pitching by means of some sort of challenge of their elbow at just about all occasions, together with bone spurs. However as soon as it turns into a persistent challenge, getting the elbow cleaned up turns into extra of a practical precedence, particularly once you’re speaking in regards to the starting of the season.
If Greene does need to have surgical procedure, this might presumably be the most effective time to do it – effectively, second-best, after the rapid finish of the season. Sadly, a surgical procedure would possible symbolize a multi-month restoration interval, ala what Spencer Schwellenbach of the Braves has been coping with. In a best-case situation, a pitcher might most likely return after two or three months, however there are actually longer home windows at play relying on the extent of the cleanup required.
For some context, Carlos Rodon had surgical procedure in mid-October to take away unfastened our bodies and shave down a bone spur in his elbow, and he will not be prepared for Opening Day. He is perhaps prepared earlier than the top of April, however that may nonetheless symbolize a six-month timetable; an identical timetable for Greene would erase many of the season.
And that is most likely not absolutely the worst-case situation. That will be one thing like what Walker Buehler handled just a few years again. He had surgical procedure to take away bone spurs in his proper elbow in June, and when his restoration from that did not go as deliberate, he ended up needing Tommy John surgical procedure. The preliminary harm there additionally included a flexor tendon pressure, in order that is not essentially analogous to what we find out about Greene’s harm now, however the setback suffered through the rehab course of highlights the danger any time we’re speaking about elbow surgical procedure.
In fact, that is all working underneath the idea Greene will want surgical procedure, and that hasn’t been confirmed in any respect. Which makes it more durable to know learn how to rank him for drafts. My first look on the rankings noticed me dropping Greene right down to round forty fifth amongst beginning pitchers, proper across the level the place you begin to see one other drop in high quality on the place. That also permits for the potential of Greene coming again within the first half and dominating, but it surely is not such a giant worth that it will kill your season if he does not; it is not removed from the place I’ve somebody like Zack Wheeler ranked.
That’s forward of Rodon and Gerrit Cole, each of whom would possible be again earlier than Greene if he does have surgical procedure, so if we be taught he does need to go underneath the knife, he’ll have to maneuver even additional again, I think. However within the data vacuum we’re coping with proper now, it is the most effective I can do for now. If you cannot abdomen the danger, take him off your draft boards fully.
Reds rotation fallout
The excellent news is, this harm does seemingly assure Chase Burns‘ spot within the Reds rotation. I by no means actually believed Burns was really vulnerable to opening the season within the Reds rotation, however all indications out of Reds camp are that it is a authentic battle. Nonetheless, with an additional spot within the rotation seemingly open for the beginning of the season no less than, Burns has sufficient wiggle room that it is actually exhausting to see him not being in there.
That should not change Burns’ worth a lot, however I would not be shocked if he moved up just a few spots from his 111.2 ADP over the previous two weeks in NFBC drafts. Something outdoors of the highest 100 would appear like a fairly good worth for probably the most in style breakout picks in Fantasy.
However the extra actionable factor right here is perhaps the possible elevation of one other Reds pitching prospect. That will be Rhett Lowder, the crew’s first-round choose the 12 months earlier than they took Burns. Lowder handled a forearm pressure final spring that saved him out of the rotation, after which strained his indirect in Could, an harm that may wind up ending his season after simply 4 rehab begins.
Loweder made it to the majors in 2024 and put up a 1.17 ERA in six begins, although the underlying numbers weren’t practically nearly as good. He ended up with simply 22 strikeouts to 14 walks and did not actually look MLB-ready regardless of the shiny ERA. And he hasn’t precisely blown folks away within the minors, placing up a 4.19 ERA in simply 118 innings since being picked seventh total in 2023.
Nonetheless, Lowder remains to be just about thought of a top-100 prospect universally, and his 126 strikeouts to 27 walks within the minors assist clarify why. He is been pitching this spring with constructive stories in regards to the high quality of his stuff to associate with seven strikeouts and two walks in 5 one-run innings of labor.
Lowder most likely does not have ace upside – actually nothing like what Greene or Burns are able to – however he is a groundball pitcher with good command and could possibly be able to one thing like what we have seen from Andrew Abbott lately. Lowder is a righty whereas Abbott is a lefty, however the total outcomes – respectable strikeouts and good command elevated by good outcomes on balls in play – might find yourself comparable, and that is a helpful Fantasy possibility.
Lowder needs to be added to your late-round radar in all drafts now that his path to a rotation spot seems to be extra clear. He does not have to be a high-priority goal, however he is younger and gifted sufficient to be value a glance alongside the likes of Noah Cameron, Ryne Nelson, Quinn Priester, and different equally fascinating (although low-ceiling) late fliers.
