NCAA Event Bracketology: UConn, Florida battle for closing No. 1 seed

With Duke, Michigan and Arizona all however locked in as No. 1 seeds for the 2026 NCAA Event, the ultimate spot atop the bracket has turn into a two-team race.

UConn at the moment holds the fourth No. 1 seed in CBS Sports activities Bracketology, however defending champion Florida is closing quick.

At fourth all in three results-based metrics integrated by the NCAA Event choice committee, the Huskies (27-3, 17-2 Massive East) have a resume edge for now. However the Gators (24-6, 16-2 SEC) personal an 11-7 benefit in Quad 1 victories, and that lead might develop earlier than Choice Sunday.

Florida performs at Kentucky on Saturday, which is a high-end Quad 1 recreation, whereas UConn closes the common season with a Quad 2 recreation at Marquette. The SEC Event additionally tasks as a extra doubtless breeding floor for Quad 1 alternatives than the Massive East Event, which might imply the Gators have much more time to make up floor subsequent week.

UConn might maintain a trump card within the type of its Dec. 9 win over the Gators on a impartial ground, however there are by no means any ensures the choice committee will use head-to-head as a figuring out think about seeding choices. A 12 months in the past, Auburn suffered head-to-head defeats towards each Duke and Florida — and had extra losses than each on Choice Sunday — however earned the No. 1 general seed forward of the Blue Devils and Gators anyway.

As we head into Friday’s motion and the weekend at-large, here is the breakdown of how the highest seeds look in CBS Sports activities Bracketology.

Bracketology high seeds

Take a look at the complete subject of 68 on the CBS Sports activities Bracketology hub.

Friday night time’s Massive East battle

Friday night time’s Massive East battle between No. 18 St. John’s and Seton Corridor carries massive implications for each. St. John’s can safe at the very least a share of the convention’s common season crown with a win. A loss would open the door for UConn to assert the outright league crown with a Saturday victory at Marquette. Moreover, St. John’s will probably be liable to slipping to a No. 6 seed in CBS Sports activities Bracketology with a loss. 

The Pirates enter among the many “First 4 Out” within the CBS Sports activities Bracketology mannequin. A win may not lead to an instantaneous soar to the “Final 4 In,” however it might make at-large consideration much more viable for a Seton Corridor group that hasn’t defeated one other projected at-large group since November. Seton Corridor got here up simply brief at UConn final Saturday, and that loss eradicated all margin for error. It is do or die for the Pirates and their at-large ambitions.

Rematch guidelines

Amid convention consolidation and the proliferation of nonconference matchups between high-major faculties, the NCAA Event Choice Committee faces challenges in trying to keep away from regular-season rematches. The 2025 NCAA Event bracket featured three potential second-round video games between convention groups, though none got here to fruition. 

The committee will nonetheless search to reduce convention conferences and nonconference rematches, and our mannequin is coded to do the identical. Nevertheless, NCAA bracketing ideas allow video games between convention groups within the second spherical, as long as the groups performed one another simply as soon as earlier than the NCAA Event. For convention groups that met twice previous to the NCAA Event, ideas state they need to not meet previous to the Candy 16. If the groups performed 3 times, NCAA bracketing ideas state they need to not play earlier than the Elite Eight.

Regarding rematches of nonconference video games, NCAA bracketing ideas state that they need to be prevented “within the First 4 and first spherical.” The committee will even “try to keep away from” nonconference rematches within the second spherical. However the committee has traditionally prioritized conserving groups on their pure seed line over altering their seed line for the sake of avoiding a rematch.