INDIANAPOLIS — You would hear Lauren Betts and Kiki Rice coming lengthy earlier than they danced by way of the doorways of the press convention room at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday afternoon, an hour after dismantling Iowa, 96-45, to win the Large Ten Ladies’s Basketball Match.
The joyous stars — Betts, the Large Ten Participant of the Yr, and Rice, the Large Ten Match Most Excellent Participant — had been blasting Drake’s 2015 hit “Again to Again” from Rice’s transportable speaker. Betts was on photograph obligation along with her retro digital digicam. Even off the court docket, they’re the proper 1-2 punch.
Their tune selection was an unsubtle nod to their second Large Ten Match title in a row. This one was drama-free. Their 51-point margin of victory was the most important within the historical past of the storied convention’s event title recreation, and the largest win ever by a Division-I crew in opposition to a top-10 opponent.
Assertion wins do not get any stronger, and the Bruins as soon as once more made their case that they are the most effective crew within the nation and deserve the No. 1 total seed within the NCAA Match. The previous can be selected the court docket a month from now in Phoenix, however the latter can be determined over the subsequent week by the choice committee.
UCLA coach Cori Shut is barely involved about what she and her crew can management.
“I do not actually care,” Shut mentioned when requested if her crew had finished sufficient to earn the highest total seed. “Whenever you concentrate on issues out of your management, it would adversely have an effect on the issues below your management. I believe, if I put any vitality in direction of that, I am taking vitality away from what it would really take to get there. I believe our focus must be on the how. How can we play our greatest basketball in March?”
Shut could not care, however loads of folks outdoors this system do. Forward of Choice Sunday, this is a take a look at how the committee makes its choice and UCLA’s case to be No. 1 total forward of UConn.
Story of the tape: UConn vs. UCLA
The undefeated and reigning champion Huskies have been ranked No. 1 within the AP Ballot all season lengthy. They’re additionally No. 1 within the ladies’s basketball NET rankings and had been No. 1 within the choice committee’s top-16 reveal final week. Assuming UConn beats Villanova on Monday to win the Large East Match, all indicators level to them being the highest total seed within the NCAA Match.
However do the Huskies deserve that honor? Let’s check out every crew’s resume.
UConn | 33-0 | 15-0 | 6-0 | 12-0 | 8-0 | 5-0 | 8-0 | 12-0 |
UCLA | 31-1 | 14-0 | 8-1 | 9-0 | 18-1 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 6-0 |
UConn could also be undefeated, however UCLA has 10 extra Quad 1 wins — their 18 Quad 1 wins are essentially the most within the nation — and 6 fewer Quad 4 wins. UCLA’s lone defeat got here to then-No. 4 Texas in December.
Moreover, UCLA performed the hardest total schedule within the nation this season, whereas UConn performed the 58th-toughest schedule. The Huskies, to their credit score, had the toughest non-conference schedule, and may do nothing in regards to the Large East being down, however there isn’t any debate that UCLA performed higher competitors over the course of the season.
The groups had 5 frequent opponents: Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Tennessee and USC. Here is a take a look at the margins of victory for every program in these respective matchups. UConn does have the sting on this division.
Iowa | +36 | +23, +51 |
Michigan | +3 | +3 |
Ohio State | +32 | +7, +10 |
Tennessee | +30 | +22 |
USC | +28 | +34, +23 |
Now, let’s study some key metrics in Quad 1 video games. UConn has a slight edge right here, however there’s little or no to distinguish the 2 groups statistically in opposition to the nation’s greatest opponents. Moreover, the stats haven’t but been up to date to replicate UCLA’s 51-point win over Iowa, which can give the Bruins an enormous statistical enhance.
UConn | 115.1 | 84.2 | +31.0 | 56.4% | 30.4% | 15.2% |
UCLA | 116.4 | 90.9 | +25.6 | 55.6% | 40.6% | 17.5% |
Lastly, UCLA is first within the nation in Wins Above Bubble with a ranking of 16.25, whereas UConn is fifth with a ranking of 10.71. (Not together with Sunday’s video games.)
Here is what CBS Sports activities Bracketologist Connor Groel, who has UConn projected because the No. 1 total seed, needed to say: “Lengthy story brief, UCLA has a greater resume however primarily based on the top-16 reveals and the way dominant UConn is, I don’t see an undefeated defending champion not being No. 1 total.”
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How does the choice committee make its choice?
Forward of the 2020-21 season, the NCAA introduced a brand new system known as the NCAA Analysis Software — NET — as the first fashionable rating system used to evaluate crew high quality for NCAA event choice and seeding.
NET evaluates a crew’s opponents, recreation location, effectivity and outcomes, and relies on two main parts: adjusted web effectivity and crew worth index. Right here is how these two parts are calculated.
Adjusted web effectivity
Measures total efficiency utilizing:
- Offensive effectivity (factors per possession)
- Defensive effectivity (opponent factors per possession)
- Energy of opponents
- Recreation location (house/away/impartial)
Workforce worth index
Outcomes-oriented metric that rewards groups for beating higher opponents, and components in:
- Opponent high quality
- Recreation location
- Win/loss end result
Whereas NET is the first rating system, it doesn’t solely decide the seeds. As of this season, the choice committee additionally makes use of Wins Above Bubble, one other results-based metric that measures the standard of a crew’s resume, together with:
- A crew’s wins in contrast with what a typical bubble crew can be anticipated to have in opposition to the identical schedule.
- It doesn’t account for scoring margin or effectivity.
“For instance, if a mean bubble crew was anticipated to win 19 video games in opposition to Workforce A’s schedule, however Workforce A gained 20, it will have a +1.0 WAB ranking.”
Moreover, the NCAA states that the committee additionally considers the next standards when figuring out seeds:
- Dangerous losses
- Widespread opponents
- Competitiveness in losses
- Early vs. late-season efficiency
- Head-to-head outcomes
- Observable parts (eye check)
- General file
- Regional rankings
- Important wins
- Energy of schedule
‘I’ve by no means considered that’
UCLA’s gamers are in lockstep with their coach on the seeding dialogue.
Gabriela Jaquez was blunt after the crew’s win over Ohio State within the Large Ten Match semifinals on Saturday. “I’ve by no means considered that,” she mentioned. Gianna Kneepkens wasn’t rather more expressive. “I do not suppose we have talked about that one time. We do not actually care,” she mentioned.
On down the road, the message was the identical.
“We do not speak about rankings or something like that. It isn’t one thing you may actually management, so there isn’t any level in worrying about that,” Charlisse Leger-Walker added Saturday. “We’re very centered on what’s proper forward of us, whether or not that is a 1-0 apply or a 1-0 recreation. When Choice Sunday occurs and the rankings come out, we’ll take care of that when it comes.”
In the end, the No. 1 total seed does not matter all that a lot other than bragging rights. UCLA goes to be a top-two total seed, and can play the primary two rounds at house earlier than nearly definitely heading to the Sacramento regional, just some hours up the highway from their campus.
A better path definitely helps, however true title contenders don’t be concerned about their seed or path.
“We’re an amazing crew. We have finished all we wanted to do,” Rice mentioned Sunday. “The committee will make that call, however we’re not centered on that.”
