How does one monitor a battle zone getting ready to civil struggle, particularly in a area which is troublesome to entry, experiences frequent web shutdowns and the place misinformation is frequent? On this information, we define the open supply instruments and strategies we are able to use to proof what is actually occurring in lots of such battle settings.
Our focus for this information is on India, which recorded 84 web shutdowns in 2024 – the very best quantity amongst democratic nations. In early June, authorities imposed a curfew and suspended web entry in elements of Manipur after protests erupted over the arrest of ethnic leaders. The state, within the north-east of the nation, has been wracked by violence for years.
The ethnic battle between the bulk, largely Hindu Meitei inhabitants and the indigenous, largely Christian Kuki Zo communities is likely one of the worst spates of violence Manipur, also referred to as the “Land of Jewels”, has skilled in a long time.
The Imphal valley in Manipur is surrounded by mountains. It’s residence to 39 ethnic communities. Simply over half of its practically three million residents belong to the Meitei neighborhood, adopted by the Naga (20 %) and the Kuki Zo (16 %) tribes.
The panorama is complicated, with ethnic armed group divided into a number of factions (this checklist shouldn’t be full):
- The ethno-nationalist militia – but to be designated as a banned group – Arambai Tenggol (AT), the United Nationwide Liberation Entrance (UNLF) – Meitei
- Kuki Nationwide Military, Kuki Nationwide Entrance – Kuki
- Zomi Revolutionary Military – Zomi
- Nationwide Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak Muivah) – Naga
In Could 2023, the Manipur Excessive Courtroom handed an order recommending a Scheduled Tribe standing (a class for indigenous communities in India that ensures affirmative motion and constitutional safety over identification and land) for the dominant Meitei neighborhood. Tribal communities rallied in opposition to the choice whereas the Meitei neighborhood held counter-rallies and counter-blockades. Clashes broke out between the Kuki and Meitei teams. Since then, the battle has displaced greater than 60,000 folks and claimed greater than 260 lives from each communities.
On this information, we present you how you can use open supply strategies in any secluded space to:
- Analyse weapon imagery and the teams utilizing them
- Examine weapons that have been looted and the place they ended up
- Analyse photos of drones probably used as weapons to deploy munitions
Analysing Weapon Imagery
One efficient method for open supply researchers is to hint the digital footprint of weapons. Within the Manipur case, native armed teams, such because the Arambai Tenggol, the UNLF and the Kuki Nationwide Entrance, have been posting weapon imagery primarily in WhatsApp teams and Fb accounts.
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Based on media stories, the struggle has been fueled by weaponry looted from police armouries or procured on the black market both from Myanmar, throughout the border, or by means of surrenders in amnesty drives.
The 6,000 firearms looted included pump-action shotguns, grenade launchers, AK-47s, INSAS rifles and ammunition. The police claimed that in February and March alone greater than 1,000 weapons have been surrendered, with greater than half from the Meitei-dominated valley districts, the place a majority of the weapons have been looted.
Bellingcat analysed weapon imagery from 2023 and 2024, accessed from WhatsApp teams and Fb accounts linked to non-state actors together with the AT, Kuki Zo militant teams, and numerous volunteer organisations. Whereas these teams have surrendered some weapons in amnesty drives, many subtle weapons weren’t turned in and have been solely recovered in search operations by safety forces.
For verification, we ran screenshots of photos of the weapons with out seen serial numbers or different markings first by means of reverse picture searches on Google and Yandex. Then, we cross-referenced the photographs with verified databases like Battle Armament Analysis (iTrace), Small Arms Survey handbook and Open Supply Munitions Portal and Trendy Firearms (OSMP).
Nonetheless, these databases are restricted of their documentation from India.
Neither OSMP nor iTrace has any documentation from India regardless of long-standing inner and border conflicts with Pakistan in Kashmir, the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh and elements of India’s Northeast area together with Manipur. Info from Myanmar was referenced, however for probably the most half, weapons used there are way more subtle, given the a lot increased scale of battle. The Small Arms Survey handbook helped match and determine, to an approximate accuracy, among the older weapon fashions revealed on social media platforms and YouTube. Nonetheless, the guerrilla modifications or customisation of weapons by the militant and militia teams made it difficult to determine older and newer gun fashions.
This was the case in a video posted on X wherein militants will be seen making ready to fireside a rocket from a rooftop. By honing in on the digital breadcrumbs contained inside the footage, it was potential to start constructing an image of the weaponry that was seen. However this course of shouldn’t be with out its challenges. We couldn’t hint any EXIF file information because it was downloaded from a WhatsApp group. Many instantaneous messaging and social media platforms strip metadata from imagery, leaving no hint of the unique supply file.
There have been no signposts or any main landmarks within the video for us to determine the situation, so we analysed every body for solar path, shadows and environmental clues. The dominant shadow is at an angle of about 90 levels, which may correspond to both east or west solar positioning – morning solar within the east or afternoon solar within the west. On this case, it seems it was the morning solar within the east for the reason that time stamp on the video exhibits it was shot at 11:18 am on Feb. 14, 2024.
We then went on Suncalc and enter these particulars to search out that the solar was at an nearly 90-degree angle on the given time and day across the Imphal East space, the place Manipur Police had reported firing between armed teams in Imphal East district a day earlier, across the similar time. Search operations have been reported within the foothills of the Dampi vary, Bishnupur – 2.5 hours away from the police coaching academy. This would seem to considerably verify the X put up’s declare that this video was shot in Manipur.
By breaking down the video into frames utilizing InVID, a platform that comprises a variety of helpful instruments for analysing movies, we have been capable of determine the weapons, offering clearer imagery we may use to return to reverse picture instruments on Google and Yandex, in addition to the Small Arms Survey handbook.
We recognized three weapons from the video:
- The black rifle is most definitely a pump-action shotgun
- An Indian 1A1 FAL (Fusil automatique leger or a light-weight machine rifle)
- And a 60mm grenade launcher
The form of the weapon held by the militant sporting the beanie cap and scarf in the identical video matches an Indian 1A1 FAL (Fusil automatique leger or a light-weight machine rifle), which has a particular lengthy wood handguard with a number of elongated air flow holes.
“In India, the rifle was produced by the Ordnance Manufacturing unit, Tiruchirappalli and was in service as much as 1998, when it was changed by the INSAS Rifle. Over 1,000,000 items of the 7.62 mm SLR rifle have been produced by the OFB,” wrote (Retd) Main Normal Dhruv C Katoch, who beforehand served because the Director for Centre for Land Warfare Research.
Additionally seen within the video is a 60mm mortar. The reverse picture search on Google led us to a file photograph on Wikimedia posted by the US Military, in addition to this evaluation by Jesus Roman, Editor of Revista Ejercitos.
Munitions researcher and PhD candidate in Battle Research at Kings School London, Andro Mathewson, described it as possible being a 60mm mortar. “It appears to be like like one man is utilizing the mortar tube, which is comparatively uncommon. Usually, it’s at the very least a two or three-man workforce. And the munition appears to be like gentle inexperienced in color with a kind of gentle metal-coloured fuse and lightweight silvery tail fins,” he mentioned. “It’s positively a small calibre mortar, which is a mainstay in navy forces. This seems to be navy/official manufacture moderately than improvised,” Matthewson instructed Bellingcat.
Which Teams Use the Weapons?
From the information collected from 2023 and 2024, Bellingcat discovered that many rifles within the photos show fabric wraps, improvised slings, aftermarket optics, even taped-on foregrips – possible hallmarks of an irregular militia moderately than a proper, skilled military.
The subsequent step is to determine the varied teams within the photos. Analysing symbols is an efficient manner to do this. For instance, we all know that the Saipikhup is the normal weave of the Kukis. It symbolises heritage and identification and is usually worn throughout essential events. We additionally discovered photos of Kuki militants sporting this handwoven scarf (saipikhup) belonging to the Thadou indigenous tribe.
Their fatigues bear the insignia of the President faction of the Kuki Nationwide Entrance, which has been accused of attacking paramilitary safety forces. In the meantime, the identical group within the picture brandishes AK-pattern and INSAS rifles. These are each Indian police or navy points, matching reported looting from armouries. A number of weapons within the picture have been additionally closely customised or regionally fabricated (painted, wrapped shares, home-attached scopes), in step with militia or irregular combatant practices.
Different photos additionally supply clues.
The Kangleipak is a seven-colour flag normally brandished by the AT.
Bellingcat additionally recognized the AT’s commander-in-chief, Korounganba Khuman, within the images and movies. He actively posts on his Fb profile and has been extensively lined by the native and nationwide press.
Information retailers are additionally invaluable sources of data. They may comprise photos of symbols corresponding to flags, which you’ll be able to then seek for on social media. In one of many movies, we recognized militants talking Meitei Lon, a language utilized by Arambai Tenggol and militant teams just like the UNLF, making ready to fireside a rocket from a rooftop launcher. Their fatigues bore an insignia that we matched to the UNLF armed group utilizing reverse picture search, which led us to a information story that includes the group’s flag because the lead picture.
Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst with the Disaster Group who visited Manipur final yr throughout elections, instructed Bellingcat that although he hadn’t seen arms on any of the aforementioned Kuki Zo militant teams, he had seen INSAS rifles, automatics and double-barrel weapons being wielded by a number of younger males within the Imphal valley.
“I noticed these younger males who will need to have been of their early teenagers to early twenties after I’d gone to satisfy Meitei Leepun [a Hindu right-wing activist group] first wielding what regarded like state-issued weapons,” he mentioned. “Then later, they changed it with double-barreled weapons. However their chief [Pramot Singh] was overtly carrying a pistol in his holster when he got here to satisfy me,” Donthi defined.
Donthi, a former journalist who has reported from battle zones in Kashmir and Chhattisgarh in India, mentioned he was struck by the younger males who have been closely armed in a risky atmosphere with none evident objective or political ideology guiding them.
Weapons Looted: The place Did They Finish Up?
When investigating conflicts, figuring out the origin of weapons is likely one of the most troublesome duties, notably in areas suffering from misinformation or an absence of dependable information. That is the case in Manipur.
Of the 6,000 firearms and ammunition looted from state police armouries talked about earlier, about half of the weapons have been recovered so far. Round 1,200 matched serial numbers from official inventories, in line with stories. Of the weapons recovered, roughly 800 subtle ones possible originated exterior the state, and 600 have been crude, regionally produced firearms.
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The biggest give up of weapons occurred in February and March when greater than 1000 weapons have been reportedly surrendered, with greater than half from the Meitei-dominated valley districts, the place a majority of the weapons have been looted. The biggest cache was surrendered on Febr. 27 by the Arambai Tenggol (AT). Nonetheless, the state police is but to finish categorising the small print of the weapons and ammunition surrendered between Febr. 20 and March 6 in opposition to the stock of weapons looted from the state armouries.
Bellingcat requested official information from the Manipur police on surrendered weapons matched in opposition to serial numbers from official inventories, however had acquired no response by the point of publication.
As an alternative, we determined to see what we may discover through the use of open sources. First, we scraped the state police pressure’s official X profile (@manipur_police) from Sept. 10, 2023, till June 14, 2025. We did it manually and utilizing Meltwater – a social media monitoring software.
Our evaluation of the police’s posts means that of these looted, six AK-47 rifles, 21 SLRs, 13 .303-calibre rifles, 16 INSAS rifles, 15 carbines, and 44 pistols have been recovered throughout that point interval. Information evaluation from the previous two years exhibits that, altogether, clean rounds, cartridges, ammunition, stay rounds and empty instances make up nearly all of recoveries.
Earlier than analysing the information, we dug deeper into media stories, specialists’ posts and analysis to grasp what was getting used regionally. Within the Manipur case, recovered firearms embody regionally manufactured bolt-action rifles, improvised mortars and weapons such because the “Pumpi” – a gun produced from repurposed metallic electrical poles. These are particularly frequent within the hill areas the place the Kuki Zo folks stay.
The heavy reliance on grenades and improvised explosives is in step with the guerrilla-style, uneven engagements – hit-and-fades, booby-traps, and space denial – moderately than large-scale firefights. The presence of a number of improvised munitions varieties displays native workshops or village-level bomb-making, prone to complement restricted entry to military-grade ordinance, in step with media reporting on the identical (see right here and right here).
Claims Over Weaponised Drones
In September final yr, Indian media reported villagers within the valley district witnessing drones allegedly dropping as many as 50 bombs. Kuki Zo village volunteers and rebel teams have been reported to have arrange bunkers within the hills, very like their Meitei counterparts within the valley.
These claims have been supported by a Manipur Police assertion. The central counter terrorism legislation enforcement authority, the Nationwide Investigating Company, which filed a case alleging weaponised drone assaults, instructed the Manipur Excessive Courtroom that Kuki militants dropped 40 drone bombs.
A supply within the Defence Ministry instructed Indian information web site The Print that the drone movies circulating on-line have been from both Myanmar or Palestine. Lots of the movies confirmed fertiliser drones, however these have been deployed by the Individuals’s Defence Forces in Myanmar, they added.
How Do You Examine Potential Drone Utilization With Open Supply Instruments?
The Manipur Police posted a picture of a drone recovered within the Kangpokpi District, a day after the primary set of assaults.
Step one is to determine the potential drone sort. The best manner is through the use of Google’s reverse picture search engine. We recognized the drone as commercial-grade, weighing roughly 181g. The carbon fibre light-weight drones, constructed for pace and agility with a payload capability of as much as 1.5kg, are extensively accessible on the web. Safety sources instructed The Print that the bombs weighed 300-400g and have been 9 to 10 inches (23 to 25cm) in measurement.
After establishing the potential drone sort, we are able to additionally look at the reported impression websites. Since we solely have photos of the assault websites proven within the media, we requested Andro Mathewson, a reputed munitions researcher and explosives skilled finishing his doctoral research on weaponised drones in smaller conflicts at King’s School London, for assist.
He instructed Bellingcat that on this state of affairs, “the payload might be fairly small. So the harm received’t be intensive”.
“A few of the photos which might be shared in The Print report,” added Mathewson, “clearly present plenty of destruction, however plenty of it appears to be kind of secondary destruction from fires moderately than from explosions itself”.
Nothing was seen that might particularly decide if drones have been used to deploy munitions. The harm from a smaller payload like 400-600g of a grenade wouldn’t exceed greater than 20 to 30m, in line with Mathewson, including that bigger or heavier payloads aren’t usually seen amongst non-professional militaries.
The subsequent step is to search out out if the munitions have been tailored for drone deployment. Mathewson instructed Bellingcat that images of drone elements revealed by the media weren’t in step with munitions deployed by drones. Bellingcat was not capable of independently verify the supply or authenticity of those images.
“That shrapnel appears to be like giant, very thick, and really heavy, which is extra in step with bigger artillery rounds and even small missiles,” he mentioned. He additionally famous that the printed fin “appears to be like fairly small”.
“Fins made out of plastic aren’t prone to be hooked up to a a lot bigger munition that’s produced that sort of shrapnel,” he instructed Bellingcat, saying that “from the size that we are able to get in these photos, these don’t appear so as to add as much as me”.
For future reference, after we requested Mathewson what to look out for to substantiate the usage of weaponised drones, he recommended two issues. One could be to see and confirm movies of drone strikes, both shot by different drones or on telephones – one thing that’s conspicuously lacking from Manipur regardless of the authorities’ claims that there have been drone strikes, though there’s loads of on-line footage of different subtle weapons used there. Secondly, Mathewson additionally mentioned it was price searching for 3D-printed munition elements, corresponding to 3D-printed fins which might be hooked up to standard weapons.
“That’s not essentially a assure, nevertheless it’s most carefully related to [modified drones] as a result of the one cause you’d connect fins to a grenade, for instance, is to make them be dropped from drones,” he added.
Further reporting by Douminlien Haokip.
Pooja Chaudhuri, Claire Press and Gyula Csák contributed to this report for Bellingcat.
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