A Information To Monitoring Battle Amidst a Sea of Misinformation

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How does one monitor a battle zone getting ready to civil struggle, particularly in a area which is tough to entry, experiences frequent web shutdowns and the place misinformation is frequent? On this information, we define the open supply instruments and strategies we are able to use to proof what is absolutely taking place in lots of such battle settings.

Our focus for this information is on India, which recorded 84 web shutdowns in 2024 – the best quantity amongst democratic nations. In early June, authorities imposed a curfew and suspended web entry in components of Manipur after protests erupted over the arrest of ethnic leaders. The state, within the north-east of the nation, has been wracked by violence for years.

The ethnic battle between the bulk, principally Hindu Meitei inhabitants and the indigenous, largely Christian Kuki Zo communities is among the worst spates of violence Manipur, often known as the “Land of Jewels”, has skilled in many years. 

The Imphal valley in Manipur is surrounded by mountains. It’s dwelling to 39 ethnic communities. Simply over half of its almost three million residents belong to the Meitei neighborhood, adopted by the Naga (20 %) and the Kuki Zo (16 %) tribes.

The panorama is complicated, with ethnic armed teams divided into a number of factions (this record isn’t full):

• The ethno-nationalist militia – but to be designated as a banned group – Arambai Tenggol (AT), the United Nationwide Liberation Entrance (UNLF) – Meitei
• Kuki Nationwide Military, Kuki Nationwide Entrance – Kuki 
• Zomi Revolutionary Military – Zomi
• Nationwide Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak Muivah) – Naga

In Could 2023, the Manipur Excessive Court docket handed an order recommending a Scheduled Tribe standing (a class for indigenous communities in India that ensures affirmative motion and constitutional safety over identification and land) for the dominant Meitei neighborhood. Tribal communities rallied in opposition to the choice whereas the Meitei neighborhood held counter-rallies and counter-blockades. Clashes broke out between the Kuki and Meitei teams. Since then, the battle has displaced greater than 60,000 folks and claimed greater than 260 lives from each communities.

On this information, we present you the right way to use open supply strategies in any secluded space to:

• Analyse weapon imagery and the teams utilizing them
• Examine weapons that have been looted and the place they ended up
• Analyse pictures of drones doubtlessly used as weapons to deploy munitions

Analysing Weapon Imagery

One efficient method for open supply researchers is to hint the digital footprint of  weapons. Within the Manipur case, native armed teams, such because the Arambai Tenggol, the UNLF and the Kuki Nationwide Entrance, have been posting weapon imagery primarily in WhatsApp teams and Fb accounts.

Based on media stories, the struggle has been fueled by weaponry looted from police armouries or procured on the black market both from Myanmar, throughout the border, or by surrenders in amnesty drives.

The 6,000 firearms looted included pump-action shotguns, grenade launchers, AK-pattern rifles, INSAS rifles and ammunition. The police claimed that in February and March alone, greater than 1,000 weapons have been surrendered, with greater than half from the Meitei-dominated valley districts, the place a majority of the weapons have been looted.

Bellingcat analysed weapon imagery from 2023 and 2024, accessed from WhatsApp teams and Fb accounts linked to non-state actors, together with the AT, Kuki Zo militant teams, and numerous volunteer organisations. Whereas these teams have surrendered some weapons in amnesty drives, many subtle weapons weren’t turned in and have been solely recovered in search operations by safety forces.

For verification, we ran screenshots of pictures of the weapons with out seen serial numbers or different markings first by reverse picture searches on Google and Yandex. Then, we cross-referenced the pictures with sources just like the Small Arms Survey handbook and Open Supply Munitions Portal (OSMP). 

Nonetheless, these databases are restricted of their documentation from India.

We additionally appeared on the public dashboard of Battle Armament Analysis (iTrace). This can be a far bigger knowledge supply. Nonetheless, the complete dataset, which accommodates an enormous variety of pictures of weapons from all over the world, isn’t publicly obtainable. Solely broad statistics, and no pictures, are seen by way of the dashboard.

The Small Arms Survey handbook helped match and determine, to an approximate accuracy, a number of the older weapon fashions revealed on social media platforms and YouTube. Nonetheless, the guerrilla modifications or customisation of weapons by the militant and militia teams made it difficult to determine the particular fashions.

This was the case in a video posted on X, which purported to point out militants making ready to fireside a mortar projectile.

By breaking down the video into frames utilizing InVID, a platform that accommodates various helpful instruments for analysing movies, we have been in a position to determine the weapons, offering clearer imagery we might use to return to reverse picture instruments on Google and Yandex, in addition to the Small Arms Survey handbook.

We recognized three weapons from the video:

The form of the weapon held by the militant carrying the beanie cap and scarf in the identical video matches a FAL sample rifle, such because the Indian 1A1 FAL, which has a particular lengthy picket handguard with a number of elongated air flow holes. 

“In India, the rifle was produced by the Ordnance Manufacturing facility, Tiruchirappalli and was in service as much as 1998, when it was changed by the INSAS Rifle. Over one million items of the 7.62 mm SLR rifle have been produced by the OFB,” wrote (Retd) Main Basic Dhruv C Katoch, who beforehand served because the Director for Centre for Land Warfare Research.

Additionally seen within the video is an unidentified mannequin 60mm commando mortar. Commando mortars are characterised by a extra moveable design, sometimes that includes a a lot smaller baseplate and a sling or carrying deal with fairly than a bipod, all of which may be seen within the pictures under.  The reverse picture search on Google led us to a file photograph on Wikimedia posted by the US Military, apart from this evaluation by Jesus Roman, Editor of Revista Ejercitos.

Munitions researcher and PhD candidate in Warfare Research at Kings School London, Andro Mathewson, described it as possible being a 60mm mortar. “It seems like one man is utilizing the mortar tube, which is comparatively uncommon. Usually, it’s at the least a two or three-man crew. And the munition seems mild inexperienced in color with a kind of mild metal-coloured fuse and light-weight silvery tail fins,” he mentioned. “It’s positively a small calibre mortar, which is a mainstay in navy forces. This seems to be navy/official manufacture fairly than improvised,” Matthewson informed Bellingcat.

Which Teams Use the Weapons?

From the info collected from 2023 and 2024, Bellingcat discovered that many rifles within the pictures have totally different furnishings and show fabric wraps, improvised slings, aftermarket optics, even taped-on foregrips.

The subsequent step is to determine the assorted teams within the footage. Analysing symbols is an effective means to do this. For instance, we all know that the Saipikhup is the standard weave of the Kukis. It symbolises heritage and identification and is commonly worn throughout essential events. We additionally discovered pictures of Kuki militants carrying this handwoven scarf (saipikhup) belonging to the Thadou indigenous tribe.

Their fatigues bear the insignia of the President faction of the Kuki Nationwide Entrance, which has been accused of attacking paramilitary safety forces. In the meantime, the identical group within the picture brandishes AR-pattern and INSAS rifles. The INSAS rifle is an Indian police or navy situation, matching reported looting from armouries. A number of weapons within the picture have been additionally closely customised, in step with militia or irregular combatant practices.

Different pictures additionally supply clues.

The Kangleipak is a seven-colour flag normally brandished by the AT.

Bellingcat additionally recognized the AT’s commander-in-chief, Korounganba Khuman, within the photographs and movies. He actively posts on his Fb profile and has been broadly coated by the native and nationwide press.

Information retailers are additionally beneficial sources of data. They could include pictures of symbols comparable to flags, which you’ll then seek for on social media. In one of many movies, we recognized militants talking Meitei Lon, a language utilized by Arambai Tenggol and militant teams just like the UNLF, making ready to fireside a mortar projectile from a mortar. Their fatigues bore an insignia that we matched to the UNLF armed group utilizing reverse picture search, which led us to a information story that includes the group’s flag because the lead picture.

Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst with the Disaster Group who visited Manipur final 12 months throughout elections, informed Bellingcat that although he hadn’t seen arms on any of the aforementioned Kuki Zo militant teams, he had seen INSAS rifles, automatics and double-barrel shotguns being wielded by a number of younger males within the Imphal valley.

“I noticed these younger males who should have been of their early teenagers to early twenties after I’d gone to fulfill Meitei Leepun [a Hindu right-wing activist group] first wielding what appeared like state-issued weapons,” he mentioned. “Then later, they changed it with double-barreled weapons. However their chief [Pramot Singh] was brazenly carrying a pistol in his holster when he got here to fulfill me,” Donthi defined.

Donthi, a former journalist who has reported from battle zones in Kashmir and Chhattisgarh in India, mentioned he was struck by the younger males who have been closely armed in a risky surroundings with none evident objective or political ideology guiding them.

Weapons Looted: The place Did They Finish Up?

When investigating conflicts, figuring out the origin of weapons is among the most tough duties, notably in areas stricken by misinformation or a scarcity of dependable knowledge. That is the case in Manipur.

Of the 6,000 firearms and ammunition looted from state police armouries talked about earlier, about half of the weapons have been recovered so far. Round 1,200 matched serial numbers from official inventories, in line with stories. Of the weapons recovered, roughly 800 subtle ones possible originated exterior the state, and 600 have been crude, regionally produced firearms.

The biggest give up of weapons occurred in February and March when greater than 1,000 weapons have been reportedly surrendered, with greater than half from the Meitei-dominated valley districts, the place a majority of the weapons have been looted. The biggest cache was surrendered on February 27 by the Arambai Tenggol (AT). Nonetheless, the state police is but to finish categorising the small print of the weapons and ammunition surrendered between February 20 and March 6 in opposition to the stock of weapons looted from the state armouries.

Bellingcat requested official knowledge from the Manipur police on surrendered weapons matched in opposition to serial numbers from official inventories, however had obtained no response by the point of publication.

As an alternative, we determined to see what we might discover by utilizing open sources. First, we scraped the state police drive’s official X profile (@manipur_police) from Sept. 10, 2023, till June 14, 2025. We did it manually and utilizing Meltwater – a social media monitoring instrument.

We dug deeper into media stories, consultants’ posts and analysis to know what was getting used regionally. Within the Manipur case, recovered firearms embody regionally manufactured bolt-action rifles, improvised mortars and weapons such because the “Pumpi” – a gun made out of repurposed metallic electrical poles. These are particularly frequent within the hill areas the place the Kuki Zo folks dwell.

The heavy reliance on grenades and improvised explosives is in step with the guerrilla-style, uneven engagements – hit-and-fades, booby-traps, and space denial – fairly than large-scale firefights. The presence of a number of improvised munitions varieties displays native workshops or village-level bomb-making, prone to complement restricted entry to military-grade ordnance, in step with media reporting on the identical (see right here and right here).

Claims Over Weaponised Drones

In September final 12 months, Indian media reported villagers within the valley district witnessing drones allegedly dropping as many as 50 bombs. Kuki Zo village volunteers and rebel teams have been reported to have arrange bunkers within the hills, very like their Meitei counterparts within the valley.

These claims have been supported by a Manipur Police assertion. The central counter terrorism legislation enforcement authority, the Nationwide Investigating Company, which filed a case alleging weaponised drone assaults, informed the Manipur Excessive Court docket that Kuki militants dropped 40 drone bombs.

A supply within the Defence Ministry informed Indian information website The Print that the drone movies circulating on-line have been from both Myanmar or Palestine. Lots of the movies confirmed fertiliser drones, however these have been deployed by the Individuals’s Defence Forces in Myanmar, they added.

How Do You Examine Potential Drone Utilization With Open Supply Instruments?

The Manipur Police posted a picture of a drone recovered within the Kangpokpi District, a day after the primary set of assaults.

Step one is to determine the doable drone kind. The best means is by utilizing Google’s reverse picture search engine. We recognized the drone as commercial-grade, weighing roughly 181g. These carbon fibre light-weight drones, constructed for pace and agility with a payload capability of as much as 1.5kg, are broadly obtainable on the web. Safety sources informed The Print that the bombs weighed 300-400g and have been 9 to 10 inches (23 to 25cm) in dimension.

After establishing the doable drone kind, we are able to additionally study the reported affect websites. Since we solely have pictures of the assault websites proven within the media, we requested Andro Mathewson, a reputed munitions researcher and explosives skilled finishing his doctoral research on weaponised drones in smaller conflicts at King’s School London, for assist. 

He informed Bellingcat that on this scenario, “the payload might be fairly small. So the harm gained’t be intensive”.

“A number of the pictures which are shared in The Print report,” added Mathewson, “clearly present quite a lot of destruction, however quite a lot of it appears to be kind of secondary destruction from fires fairly than from explosions itself”.

Nothing was seen that would particularly decide if drones have been used to deploy munitions. The harm from a smaller payload like 400-600g of a grenade wouldn’t exceed greater than 20 to 30m, in line with Mathewson, including that bigger or heavier payloads aren’t sometimes seen amongst non-professional militaries.

The subsequent step is to seek out out if the munitions have been tailored for drone deployment. Mathewson informed Bellingcat that photographs of drone components revealed by the media weren’t in step with munitions deployed by drones. Bellingcat was not in a position to independently verify the supply or authenticity of those photographs.

“That shrapnel seems massive, very thick, and really heavy, which is extra in step with bigger artillery rounds and even small missiles,” he mentioned. He additionally famous that the printed fin “seems fairly small”.

“Fins made out of plastic aren’t prone to be connected to a a lot bigger munition that’s produced that kind of shrapnel,” he informed Bellingcat, saying that “from the dimensions that we are able to get in these pictures, these don’t appear so as to add as much as me”.

For future reference, once we requested Mathewson what to look out for to verify the usage of weaponised drones, he prompt two issues. One can be to see and confirm movies of drone strikes, both shot by different drones or on telephones – one thing that’s conspicuously lacking from Manipur regardless of the authorities’ claims that there have been drone strikes, though there’s loads of on-line footage of different subtle weapons used there. Secondly, Mathewson additionally mentioned it was price searching for 3D-printed munition components, comparable to 3D-printed fins which are connected to traditional weapons.

“That’s not essentially a assure, however it’s most carefully related to [modified drones] as a result of the one purpose you’d connect fins to a grenade, for instance, is to make them be dropped from drones,” he added.

Correction: This text has been up to date after a picture beforehand incorrectly said members of the Kuki Nationwide Entrance have been posing with AK-47s, M4 Carbines and M16 weapons. We additionally up to date it to replicate errors in figuring out the bolt motion rifle, the FAL and 60mm commando-style mortar grenade. A bit on chronolocation of this video was additionally eliminated, and a clarification was added that solely the general public iTrace dashboard was consulted, fairly than cross-referenced with OSMP and the Small Arms Survey.

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Further reporting by Douminlien Haokip.

Pooja Chaudhuri, Claire Press and Gyula Csák contributed to this report for Bellingcat.

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