[ANALYSIS] Riots in Indonesia, then Nepal. Is the Philippines subsequent? 

It’s a query that has apprehensive many individuals in gentle of what’s turning out to be the Philippines’ greatest corruption scandal in our historical past for the reason that pork barrel rip-off of Janet Lim Napoles and quite a lot of lawmakers. 

The precursors for some form of an rebellion are actually current. On Friday, September 12, a minimum of Protection Secretary Gibo Teodoro and Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Employees Romeo Brawner Jr. issued a joint assertion “upholding the Structure amidst a name for withdrawal of help of the AFP.” 

”We reject all makes an attempt to patronize the AFP by sure teams that insinuate or counsel unconstitutional, unilateral interventions by the previous. The AFP abides by the structure via the Chain of Command,” they mentioned, with out mentioning the personalities and organizations concerned within the name for withdrawal of help.

An Related Press (AP) report, citing a confidential official safety evaluation, says a significant “individuals energy” was unlikely to succeed until supported by “key teams” within the navy. 

Protests over the flood management scams have already began, with a number of supposed large ones lined up, together with a transport strike on Thursday, September 18, and the “Trillion Peso March” on Sunday, September 21. Extra mass actions are to be anticipated within the coming months.

We’ve been via two profitable individuals energy revolts (EDSA 1 and a couple of) and quite a lot of failed coup makes an attempt throughout the administrations of the late Cory Aquino and present Pampanga Consultant Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. The playbook isn’t a secret: set up protests, get funding from rich people, discover supporters from the navy and police, foment anti-establishment sentiment, destabilize or launch a coup.

However violent riots within the scale of what occurred in Indonesia and Nepal have probably not occurred within the Philippines since February 1986, when offended Filipinos compelled the Marcos household to flee Malacañang. Even that was tame in comparison with what occurred in Nepal. Not one of the Marcos relations nor their cronies had been lynched or received harm.

EDSA 1 was additionally preceded by a extreme financial disaster, marked by excessive inflation (50% in 1984 and 23% in 1985), and electoral fraud — situations that aren’t current as we speak.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is aware of this all too properly and has the good thing about hindsight. 

Classes from Could 1, 2001

We had a failed “riot” with minimal violence in 2001 — the so-called EDSA Tres — when supporters of deposed president Joseph “Erap” Estrada, who had simply been arrested, trooped from EDSA to Malacañang on Could 1, 2001 in an try to overthrow then-president Arroyo. That was preceded by a number of days of fiery speeches at EDSA Shrine of pro-Erap leaders, amongst them then-senators Miriam Defensor Santiago and Juan Ponce Enrile. They incited the gang with “agit prop” (agitation propaganda) messages with the assistance of Ronald Lumbao of the Folks’s Motion In opposition to Poverty. 

These had been the early days of Newsbreak journal, which later merged with Rappler. Its sixteenth subject (Could 9-15, 2001) was titled “Seven Day sof Rage: Stoking Up a Class Warfare.” (See photograph under.) 

In response to an article in that subject, one of many “agit-prop” messages unfold via textual content messages, was: “Ikaw ba’y (1) low I.Q. (2) jobless (3) dyed hair (4) pikon (5) iyakin at (6) mabaho? Kung oo, punta na sa Edsa! Could rali kayo!” (Do you might have low IQ? Are you jobless, Is your hair dyed? Are you short-tempered, a crybaby, and foul-smelling? If that’s the case, go to Edsa. You may have a rally there). That was typical of the messages of the pro-Erap forces which incited many to hitch the Could 1 riots.

The spiritual group Iglesia Ni Cristo (INC) supplied a lot of the heat our bodies in EDSA Tres (round 70% of the estimated 100,000 on the third day of protests), however it was additionally the INC management’s determination to again off from EDSA Tres’ culminating exercise — the march to Malacañang — that ensured that the rebellion would fail. (READ: Remembering the Iglesia-led EDSA 3)

Learnings from Indonesia and Nepal

With all of the learnings from all these uprisings, the Marcos administration ought to know nip any military-backed civilian revolt within the bud. Furthermore, it additionally has the good thing about insights from the lethal riots in Indonesia and Nepal. 

In Indonesia, among the many triggers had been: extreme pay and a housing allowance of fifty million rupiah ($3,000) for lawmakers in distinction to low minimal wages of employees; revenue inequality as seen via the life of the wealthy on social media; the killing on August 29 of a motorbike ride-sharing driver by police throughout protests, the video of which went viral. Ten individuals have been killed within the demonstrations, reported the Jakarta Globe.

In Nepal, the sparks for the so-called GenZ protests had been allegations of corruption amid inflation of 5% (first half of 2025). Linked to this was the choice to ban social media platforms ostensibly for failure to register with authorities, which was later withdrawn. The #NepoBaby and #NepoKids exhibiting the lavish life of Nepalese politicians and their households additionally added gasoline to the anger. Over 70 individuals have been killed within the protests, in accordance with Reuters.

Indonesia, Nepal, and the Philippines are nonetheless grappling with revenue inequality, though there have been enhancements in all three Asian nations. 

In response to World Financial institution, Nepal’s Gini index (a measure of inequality the place 0 is the best rating) has gone down from 43.8 in 2003 to 30 in 2022. Indonesia’s Gini index has fallen from 38.9 in 2013 to 34.9 in 2024. The Philippines’ declined from 47 in 2000 to 39 in 2023. 

What to be careful for

Whether or not riots just like these in Indonesia and Nepal will occur right here within the coming months will rely upon a number of components.

The primary is how the Marcos administration will handle the protests. Inside and Native Authorities Secretary Jonvic Remulla believes a Nepal-like disaster was unlikely, and vowed to train “most tolerance” towards mass actions.

“Ang mga Pilipino naman, hindi ganyan. Even at our worst, hindi tayo nanununog ng lugar. Pero, siyempre, all issues thought of, we shall be ready naman. Pero, sa tingin ko, hindi aabot,” Remulla mentioned, as reported by the Philippine Information Company.

(Filipinos should not like that. Even at our worst, we don’t burn down locations. However, in fact, all issues thought of, we shall be ready. However, for my part, it is not going to come to that.)

The federal government ought to enable all these peaceable protests to occur, together with these being held exterior the houses of the principals within the flood management scandal.

Notice that one of many components why the Discayas determined to supply themselves as state witnesses was the protest that vandalized their property in Pasig Metropolis on September 4.  

 “Your Honor, mas natatakot po kami para sa buhay namin ngayon dahil kinukuyog na po kami ng taumbayan. Kaya nag-execute po kami ng affidavit na ito dahil 120 million Filipinos po ang parang gusto kaming patayin, at kami na rin po ang pinag-uusapan sa mga misa ng simbahan,” Pacifico “Curlee” Discaya informed the Home infra committee on September 9, Tuesday.

(Your Honor, we’re afraid for our lives now as a result of we’re being mobbed by the individuals. We executed our affidavit as a result of it seems that 120 million Filipinos need to kill us, and we’re additionally being talked about in plenty in church buildings.)  

In response to that incident, Pasig Metropolis Mayor Vico Sotto referred to as for calm and sobriety. “I perceive that we’re offended and annoyed, however let’s not resort to violence or acts that would probably result in violence or accidents.

“Hindi naman yung mga corrupt ang masasaktan pag bumigay ang gate, hindi rin sila ang matatamaan ng bato. Nag-aalala ako para sa mga safety guard, trabahador, at ralyista mismo. (It’s not the corrupt who will get harm if the gate provides method, they’re not those who will get hit by stones. I fear for the safety guard, the employees, and the protesters themselves.)

“Don’t really feel hopeless… the momentum is on the correct aspect now!!! Allow us to proceed to struggle for ACCOUNTABILITY, STRONGER INSTITUTIONS, AND THE RULE OF LAW. There are not any shortcuts,” Sotto mentioned in a social media put up.

Some analysts, nevertheless, have warned that these protests may get infiltrated and switch violent. In such a case, how police and safety forces deal with such incidents shall be a giant issue on whether or not lethal riots are going to erupt. It’s vital that peaceable actions be allowed since they assist launch the individuals’s anger over the huge corruption within the flood management rip-off. 

President Marcos’ initiative in exposing the flood management rip-off, his transfer to arrange an Impartial Fee on Infrastructure (ICI) with credible members, the fast submitting of a graft grievance in opposition to these concerned, persevering with probes by the Senate and the Home, amongst different steps, are additionally serving to launch public anger.

These ought to proceed, and lawmakers who’re possible concerned not directly in letting the rip-off occur ought to step down — or get ousted. That features the President’s cousin, Home Speaker Martin Romualdez.

However what if there’s proof that hyperlinks the President? Will he step down?

One other key issue is whether or not the INC will mobilize its flock for actions associated to the corruption scandals. Solely the INC has the power to shortly mobilize giant crowds. Will they aspect with Marcos or will they aspect with the Dutertes? Recall that the INC held a supposedly non-political Nationwide Rally for Peace final January 13 in opposition to the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte. 

The “pinks” and the “yellows” or “pinklawans” backed by Filipino GenZs, who mobilized in giant numbers for Leni Robredo’s presidential marketing campaign in 2022 and within the shock victories of Senators Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan (amongst others) within the 2025 midterm elections, are additionally capable of mount mass actions however not within the scale and velocity of the INC. 

Based mostly on what pink and yellow personalities have talked about in varied platforms, their hope is to have the ability to channel the energies of the youth towards victory within the 2028 elections. Among the many nationwide candidates they’ll area are Senator Risa Hontiveros or Naga Mayor Leni Robredo, and even Senator Bam Aquino. This large corruption scandal strengthens the probabilities of having a so-called “third candidate” win within the 2028 elections, on condition that each the Marcos forces and the Dutertes are tainted by it. Recall that Benigno S. Aquino III received within the 2010 presidential elections on the again of individuals’s want for clear authorities.

Knowledgeable armed forces will spell the distinction in any coup or destabilization try. Many hope that the armed forces will stay loyal to the constitutional precept of civilian supremacy over the navy.

The administration must also keep away from any strikes that will stifle free speech, just like what occurred in Nepal. No banning of social media, and no trampling of the correct to freedom of meeting. Sentiments being expressed by way of mass media and social media should be allowed to proceed since these assist stop individuals’s anger from reaching boiling level.

We stay in attention-grabbing occasions. Barring a Black Swan occasion, the Philippines’ custom of non-violent individuals energy would possibly maintain up and stop lethal riots like what occurred in Indonesia and Nepal. – Rappler.com