Astros vs. Mariners: What to find out about essential sequence with AL West lead, tiebreaker on the road

The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros start a pivotal three-game sequence Friday night time that very nicely might decide who wins the American League West in 2025. The golf equipment will meet at Daikin Park, in Houston, knotted in additional methods than one. Not solely have they got similar 84-69 data, however they’ve additionally cut up their earlier 10 head-to-head matchups. The winner of this sequence can be in first place and personal the tiebreaker by Sunday night time.

Sequence do not get a lot greater than this, and so CBS Sports activities is taking the chance to offer you all it’s essential know heading into Friday’s opener. Let’s begin with some very important info:

Now, onward to a couple storylines of curiosity.

1. Tiebreaker at stake

As talked about within the introduction, the Mariners and Astros have every gained 5 of their 10 first head-to-head matchups this 12 months. You do not want a calculator or a spreadsheet to understand that, with three video games left, one group goes to stroll away with the season sequence. 

In flip, mentioned group will acquire a bonus: the tiebreaker. MLB did away with Sport 163 eventualities when it expanded the playoffs. Ties at the moment are decided, foremost, by head-to-head play. In impact, whichever group prevails this weekend — be it by a 2-1 sequence win or a sweep — will successfully add a sport to their lead, for the reason that different group should win the division outright or by no means.

2. Mariners enter scorching

The Mariners will come into play having gained 11 of their final 12 video games, within the course of eliminating what was a 3 ½-game Astros’ benefit within the West. That tear comes after the Mariners began September with an 0-4 stretch. Even on the time we right here at CBS Sports activities famous they continued to have an actual probability at overtaking the Astros because of a hidden benefit: their schedule.

Here is a few of what we wrote:

The kicker in all of that is that the Mariners nonetheless have a transparent pathway to the division crown. They’ve one of many weakest remaining schedules in baseball, in keeping with Tankathon’s math, with their opponents successful simply 47.3% of their video games. The Astros have nearer to an average-strength schedule to play, with their very own opponents successful precisely 50% of their video games so far. 

Positive sufficient, for the reason that publication of that paragraph the Mariners have gained or swept a sequence in opposition to the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Angels and Kansas Metropolis Royals — none of whom can be taking part in in October. The Astros in the meantime, have needed to sq. off with the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers (twice), and a shared foe, within the Braves, and have a 7-4 file to point out for his or her efforts.

3. Astros down a number of key gamers, however get Paredes again

Irrespective of how the subsequent 10 days play out, the story of the Astros’ season will stay centered on the absurd quantity of accidents they’ve endured. In keeping with Baseball Prospectus’ numbers, the Astros are certainly one of simply two groups to lose greater than 2,000 participant video games to the IL this season — the opposite membership being the Los Angeles Dodgers.

As of Friday, the Astros are down a whole beginning rotation (together with Luis Garcia, Ronel Blanco, and Hayden Wesneski), their nearer (Josh Hader), and a beginning place gamers (Brendan Rodgers). There’s additionally the matter of slugger Yordan Alvarez, who was pressured to go away a sport earlier this week after injuring his ankle whereas crossing the plate. (It must be famous that Alvarez is not on the IL, although his standing stays unsure.) The nice harm information for Houston, although, is that All-Star infielder Isaac Paredes is about to return this weekend after lacking the final two months with a hamstring pressure.

That the Astros are even on this place — coming into the ultimate 9 video games of their schedule with an actual probability at successful the division — is a testomony to this membership’s resilience and resourcefulness.