Elevate your hand if you happen to had this in your bingo card: 2025 NFL MVP Drake Maye. Precisely. However it’s not so loopy anymore.
All he is executed is move checks prior to now month. He “arrived” in Week 5 with an upset win in Buffalo in prime time the place he made play after play outdoors the pocket within the second half. He torched the Browns‘ No. 1 complete protection in Week 8 (regardless of getting sacked 5 occasions by Myles Garrett) and delivered one other sturdy efficiency vs. the Falcons‘ No. 1 move protection in Week 9.
Heading into Week 10, Maye is second in NFL MVP odds at FanDuel (+400) behind favourite Josh Allen (+150) on the halfway level of the season.
That every one brings us to Sunday, when the Buccaneers host the Patriots on CBS. It is one other alternative for a press release win and for Maye so as to add to his MVP resume.
He ranks high 5 within the NFL in completion fee (74.1%), passing yards (2,285), yards per try (9.0) and landing passes (17). He is simply the fourth quarterback in NFL historical past to finish 70% of his passes with 9.0+ yards per try in his first 9 video games of the season (minimal 225 makes an attempt), together with Joe Montana in 1989, Tom Brady in 2007 and Aaron Rodgers in 2011 — all of whom gained MVP that yr. So Maye is doing one thing solely three of the highest 5 or 10 quarterbacks of all-time have executed. Wow.
That places him on a course to proceed the wealthy custom of 12 months 2 quarterback leaps that is featured just about one promising rookie blossoming right into a franchise quarterback yearly for the previous decade:
- 2024-25 Drake Maye: common rookie season to MVP candidate in 12 months 2
- 2022-23 Brock Purdy: Jimmy Garoppolo’s backup as a rookie to at least one play away from Tremendous Bowl winner
- 2021-22 Trevor Lawrence: rookie bust below City Meyer to MVP finalist in 12 months 2
- 2020-21 Joe Burrow: devastating knee damage as a rookie to Tremendous Bowl berth in 12 months 2
- 2018-19 Lamar Jackson: promising end as a rookie to unanimous MVP in 12 months 2
- 2017-18 Patrick Mahomes: sat most of rookie yr to historic 50-touchdown season in 12 months 2
- 2016-17 Jared Goff: abysmal 0-7 rookie report to star in 12 months 2 with Sean McVay
- 2016-17 Carson Wentz: common rookie yr to MVP favourite in 12 months 2 earlier than tearing ACL
Maye is making a leap in each sense of the phrase. He is fourth in EPA per dropback this season after rating twenty second final season. He’s among the many most improved quarterbacks from 12 months 1 to 12 months 2 throughout the board. I examined the 89 quarterbacks in NFL historical past who had been certified passers in each their first and second years of their careers. Here is the place his jumps rank:
- Second in yards per try enchancment (+2.3) behind 2013 Nick Foles
- Sixth in passing yards per recreation enchancment (+78.8) and finest since 1994 Drew Bledsoe
- Sixth in win share enchancment (+.528)
- Fourth in ANY/A+ enchancment (+34)
ANY/A+ is a stat by Professional Soccer Reference that’s much like passer ranking however is era-adjusted. For instance, it ranges the taking part in subject between gamers within the Seventies (when compiling gaudy passing numbers was a lot more durable) and the 2020s, when it has by no means been a greater passing setting.
It is a historic breakout season we’re witnessing. If it is something like what we have seen in recent times, do not be shocked if Maye really wins MVP or if he helps lead the Patriots to the Tremendous Bowl. 4 quarterbacks have gained an MVP in 12 months 2 (Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson) and 4 quarterbacks have gained a Tremendous Bowl in 12 months 2 (Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson). Not many anticipated these gamers to interrupt out and win MVPs and/or rings getting into these seasons, so the sky is the restrict for Maye.
Query: The place does Maye rank among the many biggest 12 months 2 quarterback leaps ever at his present tempo? My standards right here is quarterbacks who had breakout sophomore seasons after both taking part in sparingly as rookies (like Brady and Mahomes) or not taking part in that effectively (Peyton Manning). You will not discover gamers on this record who had been additionally nice as rookies, not even quarterbacks who gained Tremendous Bowls of their second yr, equivalent to Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson. They’d nice second seasons, however they stunning a lot maintained their stage of play from their rookie years. That is about taking leaps. The factor of shock is what’s lovely about sports activities, so let’s rejoice it! So with out additional ado:
10. Drake Maye (2025)
There have been quite a few 12 months 2 leaps all through NFL historical past. It is a fashionable time for quarterbacks to interrupt out. This record even leaves off massive second seasons by Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Colin Kaepernick, Carson Wentz and Brock Purdy. You possibly can argue “Mr. Irrelevant” belongs on this record, however he was omitted as a result of he gained his first seven begins as a rookie earlier than dropping within the 2022 NFC title recreation in Philadelphia after tearing his elbow within the first quarter. His second season was extra of a continuation of his rookie success, greater than a leap. That is each how aggressive it’s and the way unbelievable Maye’s season is trending to even be included.
Probably the most spectacular transformation about Maye’s 2025 season has been his deep ball. He leads the NFL in completion fee (65%) on throws of 15+ air yards after rating final in 2024 (29%). We have by no means seen an enchancment like this (+36%) in 20 years of monitoring information. He leads the NFL in completions (27) and completion fee (64%) on tight-window throws this yr, per NFL Professional insights. He is threading the needle and in addition making a whole lot of these performs below strain and on the transfer. In different phrases, his leap does not appear fluky within the slightest and he ought to solely proceed to pad his numbers because the Patriots play the best schedule (.357 opponent win share) by any group in 50 years (1975 Vikings).
It isn’t simply a person turnaround both. The Patriots have a legit shot at changing into the second group in league historical past to go from a 13-loss to a 13-win season. The Colts did this from 1998 to 1999, throughout Peyton Manning’s second yr.
Maye can be doing this with out an all-world supporting solid. Will Campbell (first-round choose) and Stefon Diggs (free agent signing) have been good additions and Kayshon Boutte has upside, nevertheless it’s nonetheless a median at finest supporting solid. You may see a whole lot of names on this record (spoiler alert) who’ve (or had) corridor of fame caliber teammates like Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. We will not predict if that may occur with any of Maye’s teammates, nevertheless it does not seem to be it is the case proper now.
9. Nick Foles (2013)
Everybody will bear in mind Nick Foles for going from third stringer to upsetting Tom Brady and Co. within the Tremendous Bowl with the ‘Philly Particular’, however remember about his record-setting second season. The previous second-round choose rode the bench behind Michael Vick in 2012 earlier than beginning 10 video games in 2013 after Vick damage his hamstring. All Foles did was set an NFL report with the perfect touchdown-to-interception ratio (27-2) in a season (Tom Brady broke this mark in 2016). He additionally led the NFL in yards per try (9.1), yards per completion (14.2) and passer ranking (119.2) seemingly out of nowhere. He has the most important 12 months 1 to 12 months 2 leaps ever when it comes to yards per try (+2.7) and passer ranking (+40.1).
8. Jared Goff (2017)
The highest two picks of the 2016 NFL Draft (Jared Goff and Carson Wentz) each took big leaps in yr two that may even make Neil Armstrong blush. Goff’s leap will get the slight edge, although, primarily based on Wentz getting damage and what Goff did the yr prior. He went 0-7 as a rookie below Jeff Fisher, the second-worst report by a rookie quarterback chosen No. 1 general ever, behind Troy Aikman’s 0-11 season in 1989. Goff did an entire 180 in 2017 with rookie head coach Sean McVay, going 11-4 with 28 touchdowns to seven interceptions. He removed the ball rapidly and thrived in McVay’s artistic, play-action heavy offense with MVP runner-up Todd Gurley and a younger Cooper Kupp.
7. Joe Burrow (2021)
Joe Burrow was OK as a rookie in 2020, following his record-setting, nationwide title yr at LSU in 2019. However it ended with a devastating knee damage after 10 begins. Burrow got here again wholesome and thrived after the Bengals drafted his school teammate Ja’Marr Chase within the first spherical. Burrow was an effectivity king, very similar to Maye, changing into the youngest quarterback ever (25) to steer the NFL in each completion fee (70.4%) and yards per try (8.9). His “arrival” got here in Weeks 16 and 17 when he mixed for almost 1,000 passing yards and eight landing passes in wins over the Ravens and Chiefs. He adopted up a 14-point comeback win and game-winning drive vs. Patrick Mahomes and co. with an 18-point comeback vs. the Chiefs within the AFC title recreation. He was a play away from profitable the Tremendous Bowl that yr, too, however Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp had different concepts. Stafford hit the triple crown winner with a game-winning landing within the last two minutes and Aaron Donald and Von Miller sealed the deal on protection. Nonetheless, it was a historic yr, marking the beginning of Burrow’s NFL superstardom, which is greater than sufficient to make this record.
6. Lamar Jackson (2019)
Lamar Jackson took over for Joe Flacco and began the ultimate seven video games of his rookie yr in 2018. The electrical audition was ok to win Jackson the job going ahead, however he was nonetheless a little bit of a query mark after an unpleasant playoff efficiency vs. the Chargers, the place he was 3-9 passing for 25 yards within the first three quarters of that loss. He fully turned the web page in 2019 by main the league in landing passes (36) whereas speeding for a QB report 1,206 yards in simply 15 begins. He gained the unanimous MVP in top-of-the-line seasons in NFL historical past. He could be larger on this record, however he went one-and-done within the playoffs, and he was nonetheless productive as a rookie, so it lacked the shock issue of different leaps forward of him.
5. Peyton Manning (1999)
Peyton Manning should have had a number of individuals anxious in 1998 when he threw an NFL rookie report 28 interceptions and the Colts went 3-13. What a distinction a yr makes. Manning completed because the MVP runner-up in 1999 and the Colts grew to become the primary group ever to go from a 13-loss to a 13-win yr. His celebrity supporting solid obtained into the act. Edgerrin James led the league in speeding as a rookie (1,553 yards) and Marvin Harrison led the NFL in receiving (1,663). Too unhealthy Manning went one-and-done within the playoffs for the primary of a number of occasions.
4. Patrick Mahomes (2018)
this record is filled with spectacular breakouts when Patrick Mahomes is fourth. He began only one recreation as a rookie in 2017 (backed up Alex Smith) earlier than producing a record-setting yr in 2018. He grew to become the third quarterback ever to throw 50 landing passes in a season, after Tom Brady (2007) and Peyton Manning (2013). He most likely would have gained a Tremendous Bowl, too, if it weren’t for that Brady man. A coin flip and an offside (Dee Ford) within the 2018 AFC title recreation modified the course of NFL historical past, and in addition is one motive Mahomes is not larger right here.
3. Dan Marino (1984)
Marino really lived as much as excessive expectations as a first-round choose in 1983, going 7-2 with 20 landing passes and 6 picks. His second season was simply so extraordinary that it proved to be a loopy leap even in opposition to a very good rookie yr. Marino had the primary 5,000-yard passing season in 1984. The NFL’s subsequent one would not come for an additional 24 years (Drew Brees in 2008). He threw 48 landing passes in ’84, a report that may stand for twenty years till Peyton Manning threw for 49 in 2004. One of the best half, tho was that the earlier report was 36 landing passes by George Blanda (1961) and Y.A. Tittle (1963). Marino SHATTERED the perfect quarterback season of all-time and put up numbers that no person else would sniff for many years. He grew to become the youngest quarterback (23) to win an MVP and in addition the youngest to begin a Tremendous Bowl (a report he nonetheless holds as we speak). The Dolphins misplaced that Tremendous Bowl to the 49ers, nevertheless it does not diminish Marino’s 1984 season as an all-time nice.
2. Tom Brady (2001)
We’re actually splitting hairs between the highest two names on this record, who authored the 2 finest underdog tales in NFL historical past, however Tom Brady is available in at No. 2. The 199th general choose of the 2000 NFL Draft accomplished one move his total rookie season however then rose to the event after Mo Lewis’ hit on Drew Bledsoe and the remainder is historical past. He led the Patriots to their first Tremendous Bowl title and one of many greatest championship upsets ever vs. Kurt Warner and the Rams‘ ‘Biggest Present on Turf’ offense. Brady continues to be the final quarterback to win a Tremendous Bowl within the season of his playoff debut.
His yr two leap was additionally a part of a historic group turnaround. This was the one time in Patriots historical past that they went from worst to first within the division (one thing they will do once more in 2025). the Patriots are fortunate after they have TWO quarterbacks on this record.
1. Kurt Warner (1999)
Kurt Warner’s yr two leap had all of it. It was so superb there was a film made after it. ‘American Underdog’. He stocked grocery cabinets after going undrafted in 1994, performed for the Iowa Barnstormers of the Enviornment Soccer League in 1995 and the Amsterdam Admirals of NFL Europe in 1997 earlier than making the 1998 Rams as a 3rd stringer. His massive break got here in 1999 when Trent Inexperienced’s preseason damage opened the door for top-of-the-line tales in NFL historical past. The ‘Biggest Present on Turf’ was born with Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce placing up online game numbers. The 1999 Rams grew to become the primary group to win a Tremendous Bowl after going worst-to-first of their division (they had been 4-12 in 1998). Even the Tremendous Bowl ending (quick by one yard) was straight out of a Hollywood script. Plus, Warner gained NFL MVP and Tremendous Bowl MVP that yr, a feat that may not be repeated till Patrick Mahomes did it 23 years later.
Warner tops an unbelievable, unbelievable record of breakout seasons by younger quarterbacks. If something, it proves the NFL has been stuffed with miracle seasons and unpredictable occasions in its 125-year historical past. So many who we must always take into account the likelihood that Maye may climb even larger on this record and win his personal MVP and Tremendous Bowl.
