The freight market skilled a bounce in September, primarily pushed by truckload volumes, although the outlook stays unsure, in line with a month-to-month report from Cass Info Programs.
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Cass’ multimodal shipments index elevated 2.5% sequentially in September (up 1.5% seasonally adjusted), reversing August’s dip. The volumes dataset was down 5.4% yr over yr, which was the smallest y/y decline in three months as delayed tariff implementations have been supportive of volumes. For a second straight month, the TL market took share from the less-than-truckload market.
Shippers consolidating smaller hundreds into full truckloads to reap the benefits of still-depressed charges drove the combo shift in trucking. Whereas the “TL bounce” led to greater charges within the month, tariffs are anticipated to negatively influence shopper spending, pushing out a significant restoration, the report mentioned.
“We expect the LTL declines mirror ongoing accessible TL capability—the place low charges lead shippers to consolidate LTL hundreds into truckloads—and personal fleet insourcing,” the report mentioned. “The positivity in TL volumes could also be short-term, as pre-tariff transport might result in extra air pockets in demand.”
Additional, inbound container flows from China are forecast to be subdued within the again half of the yr. Cass’ volumes dataset is anticipated to be off 6% y/y in October, assuming typical seasonality in the course of the month.
September 2025
y/y
2-year
m/m
m/m (SA)ShipmentsExpendituresTL Linehaul Index
Cass’ freight expenditures index, which measures complete freight spend together with gasoline, elevated 5.1% sequentially (up 2.5% seasonally adjusted). The index was up 2.2% y/y, marking the fifth y/y enhance previously six months.
The dataset additionally noticed its smallest two-year-stacked decline (down 4.5%) since July 2023.
Backing out the modest sequential quantity enhance, precise freight charges have been seemingly 1% greater seasonally adjusted from August. Nonetheless, Cass continues to be assessing the influence of a altering freight combine and has paused releasing its inferred charge information.
Cass’ TL linehaul index, which tracks charges excluding gasoline and accessorial surcharges, was up 1.7% sequentially throughout September, reversing August’s decline. The index was up 2.6% y/y, a ninth straight y/y enhance, and the most important in three years.
The report mentioned “the online results of the immigration crackdown,” together with a stoppage within the issuance and renewal of non-domiciled industrial driver’s licenses, might materially tighten capability within the subsequent two years.
