Cass experiences ‘TL bounce,’ restoration timeline nonetheless unsure

[ad_1]

The freight market skilled a bounce in September, primarily pushed by truckload volumes, although the outlook stays unsure, in line with a month-to-month report from Cass Info Programs.

Be a part of the leaders shaping freight’s future at
F3: Way forward for Freight Competition, Oct 21-22.
Community with the trade’s greatest and uncover what’s subsequent.

Cass’ multimodal shipments index elevated 2.5% sequentially in September (up 1.5% seasonally adjusted), reversing August’s dip. The volumes dataset was down 5.4% yr over yr, which was the smallest y/y decline in three months as delayed tariff implementations have been supportive of volumes. For a second straight month, the TL market took share from the less-than-truckload market.

Shippers consolidating smaller hundreds into full truckloads to reap the benefits of still-depressed charges drove the combo shift in trucking. Whereas the “TL bounce” led to greater charges within the month, tariffs are anticipated to negatively influence shopper spending, pushing out a significant restoration, the report mentioned.

“We expect the LTL declines mirror ongoing accessible TL capability—the place low charges lead shippers to consolidate LTL hundreds into truckloads—and personal fleet insourcing,” the report mentioned. “The positivity in TL volumes could also be short-term, as pre-tariff transport might result in extra air pockets in demand.”

Additional, inbound container flows from China are forecast to be subdued within the again half of the yr. Cass’ volumes dataset is anticipated to be off 6% y/y in October, assuming typical seasonality in the course of the month.

September 2025
y/y
2-year
m/m
m/m (SA)ShipmentsExpendituresTL Linehaul Index

Cass’ freight expenditures index, which measures complete freight spend together with gasoline, elevated 5.1% sequentially (up 2.5% seasonally adjusted). The index was up 2.2% y/y, marking the fifth y/y enhance previously six months.

The dataset additionally noticed its smallest two-year-stacked decline (down 4.5%) since July 2023.

Backing out the modest sequential quantity enhance, precise freight charges have been seemingly 1% greater seasonally adjusted from August. Nonetheless, Cass continues to be assessing the influence of a altering freight combine and has paused releasing its inferred charge information.

<em>SONAR: Outbound Tender Reject Index for <em>2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line)</em>. A proxy for truck capacity, the Outbound Tender Reject Index shows the number of loads being rejected by carriers.</em> <em>Current tender rejections are largely outperforming prior-year levels but still not signaling a recovery.</em> <em>To learn more about SONAR, <a href="https://gosonar.com/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:click here;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas" class="link ">click here</a>.</em> — SONAR: Outbound Tender Reject Index for *2025 (blue shaded space), 2024 (inexperienced line) and 2023 (pink line)*. A proxy for truck capability, the Outbound Tender Reject Index reveals the variety of hundreds being rejected by carriers. *Present tender rejections are largely outperforming prior-year ranges however nonetheless not signaling a restoration.* *To study extra about SONAR, click on right here.*

<em>SONAR: National Truckload Index (linehaul only – NTIL) <em>for 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line)</em>. The NTIL is based on an average of booked spot dry van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel. Spot rates are modestly ahead of year-ago levels.</em> — SONAR: Nationwide Truckload Index (linehaul solely – NTIL) *for 2025 (blue shaded space), 2024 (inexperienced line) and 2023 (pink line)*. The NTIL relies on a mean of booked spot dry van hundreds from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day transferring common of linehaul spot charges excluding gasoline. Spot charges are modestly forward of year-ago ranges.

Cass’ TL linehaul index, which tracks charges excluding gasoline and accessorial surcharges, was up 1.7% sequentially throughout September, reversing August’s decline. The index was up 2.6% y/y, a ninth straight y/y enhance, and the most important in three years.

The report mentioned “the online results of the immigration crackdown,” together with a stoppage within the issuance and renewal of non-domiciled industrial driver’s licenses, might materially tighten capability within the subsequent two years.